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Wishing and hoping won’t get the job done.

By: barleycorn (Diary)  |  January 12th, 2012 at 09:24 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Aside from the front page, I view Redstate as primarily a place for conservative activists to compare notes and hash out issues. I don’t believe that what appears in the diaries has one iota of effect on public opinion and therefore I generally say what I think as opposed to what I hope.

Back in early December I announced my support here for Newt Gingrich. I didn’t do so because I thought that would move Iowa into the Gingrich column. Iowans could not care less about what I think. I did it primarily to try to sway some other Redstate diarists to the Newt camp and secondarily to avoid any appearance of having a hidden agenda.

So when I write “turn out the lights the party is over” and that Mitt Romney is very nearly at the point of inevitability,  its not because I have abandoned my support for Newt Gingrich, or suddenly think Romney is the bee’s knees, or that all other candidates should give up.

Conservatives here at Redstate must begin to reconcile themselves to conditions on the ground. Romney just got a shade under 40% in NH. He is leading in the polls for both SC and Fla. If he wins SC then it is effectively over. However if he is beaten in SC then the race will go on but even so some of the candidates will need to face reality and withdraw.

I have been very clear with my opinion that Newt Gingrich is the best choice for the GOP in 2012. He has glaring imperfections but so do all the others, and Newt is the one guy I trust has the ability to to shred Barack Obama this Fall.

A new poll this morning has Newt Gingrich just two points behind Romney in South Carolina while Santorum has dropped back and Perry is stuck at 5%. If Newt were to win SC and Perry and Santorum then withdraw and endorsed Gingrich, Romney would no longer be inevitable. I’m not going to hold my breath.

Bottom line folks, Romney can’t be stopped by a gaggle of 5-15 percenters. The conservative vote must be consolidated before Florida votes or the game will be over. This is not rah-rah-rah pablum for the general public, this is political calculation that I hope this community will ponder.

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  • cheetah2

    I do have hope that if one of the non Romneys can swing it and Romney is not the best choice that it can still happen. Things are different this year. the primaries are not structured the same. If one of the non Romneys can finish a strong second, all is not over. I don’t think any of them needs to drop out until after S. Carolina.

    We have 2 southerners in the battle for S. Carolina. Whether purposely or not, their attacks against Romney are working together and Sarah Palin is joining in. Please look at my Gunslinger diary. I have a question for Gingrich supporters there.

    It appears to me that Gingrich just may not flame out with the Bain attacks. I am wondering if the ABR crowd is making a mistake if they join in the establishment Republican condemnation of Gingrich and Perry over this line of attack. If his Bain connections will hurt Romney in the general election, maybe going after him on it now is the most effective route to take. Gingrich does have a massive brain after all, maybe he knows what he is doing here.

  • barleycorn

    By all means you should pray for the right result to happen but I have to be very honest here: I don’t pray for candidate X to defeat Candidate Y because I don’t have all the information God does. And I mean that sincerely. As much as I don’t care for Mitt Romney I don’t know what God’s plan is in this case so I can’t very well pray for Romney to lose.

    Two of the three non-Romneys need to drop out because otherwise Romney wins. If he can rack up a few more 25-30% wins that is all it will take because the media will focus the casual voter’s attention on who “won” rather than the bigger and more complicated picture.