Comments on: Considering Senatorial pot odds. http://www.redstate.com/barleycorn/2012/05/09/considering-senatorial-pot-odds/ Mon, 03 Dec 2012 19:44:12 +0000 hourly 1 By: Freedoms Truth http://www.redstate.com/barleycorn/2012/05/09/considering-senatorial-pot-odds/#comment-878 Freedoms Truth Wed, 09 May 2012 13:48:08 +0000 http://www.redstate.com/barleycorn/?p=277#comment-878 Here’s how to calc the odds:
Leans R = Mourdock has 80+% chance we win
Even if you give Lugar a 100% chance of winning,
he would be only with us 70% of the time on the ‘tough’ votes, going AWOL on immigration, climate change, budget, taxes and SCOTUS nominations …

A guy who is 100% good on votes and has a 80% chance of getting there gives you an 80% guy, which beats the 70% guy.

But more importantly, Mourdock is young and Lugar was old. There is no telling if Lugar was kept whether the Democrats would have had a better shot then.

2012 is not going to be a good year for Democrats trying to win Senate seats, they have a ton of them to defend, and Indiana will vote Republican top to bottom.

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