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Last night’s debate and a prediction on where the polls will go.

By: barleycorn (Diary)  |  October 4th, 2012 at 09:08 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Mitt Romney turned in what I believe is the best performance ever in presidential debates. He was crisp, bold, commanding, knowledgeable, friendly, respectful, firm, and relentless.

The reaction from the media was unprecedented in my experience. Romney’s dominance of Barack Obama was so thorough and comprehensive that in the ensuing confusion Obama sycophants lost all control and committed widespread truth in their commentary.

On both style and substance Romney commanded the stage and left Barack Obama looking tired, bitter, and old. Worse,  Obama looked small and overwhelmed. Not since October of 1980 has a Republican candidate for president walked out of a debate with such a clear win.

The contrast between the two candidates was startling. Romney came across as more intelligent, more knowledgeable, more of a leader, more inspirational, and more likeable. It was a surgical dissection of the little man who bluffed his way to the White House in 2008 but has since been exposed as a poseur and fraud.

Over the next 3 to 5 days I expect to see the tracking polls move sharply in Romney’s direction. Look for Romney to take a 2-4 point lead in Rasmussen and reach parity in Gallup which is still polling registered voters. Then new non-tracking polls will begin to show the same movement.

By this time next week Romney will be viewed as the front-runner and the media me-me will be that Obama has to score a knockout in the second debate.

COMMENTS

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  • Change Jar Conservative

    Let me just say a couple of additional comments to what you posted.

    I think we will see Rasmussen (which is 3 days only) react first and it will be dramatic. Since they have Obama up 48-47, I think that tomorrow’s will have Romney+2 and by Monday, they will have Romney 51-Obama 45. Gallup won’t get that high, but will be Romney 49-Obama 46 by this time next week.

    Secondly, I think that Coloradans watched the debate more than others since it was in their home state. Right now Colorado is 48 to 45 in Favor of Obama. I think the first post-debate polls will show Romney 49-Obama 45.

    States like Missouri and North Carolina that are around the 49-45 Romney lead will blow open –> Romney 53 — Obama 43.

    Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, and Ohio which are currently sitting at Obama 48 — Romney 44 will do something like Romney 49 — Obama 46

    • barleycorn

      I think you are likely to be correct. My theory of this election is that a substantial number of “undecideds” were just waiting for Romney to give them a reason to vote for him, and last night he did. Also I think some of the group-thinkers and the “I don’t wanna back a loooooooser” types will now have a reason to abandon Obama. We shall see.

  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    “Romney came across as more intelligent, more knowledgeable, more of a leader, more inspirational, and more likeable.”

    We knew that all along, though, didnt we.

  • luv2ski

    A presidential campaign is much like a war. Wars have battles. This one was a rout. We would be fools to claim a final victory now. We should nonetheless savor this battlefield success for a moment. Like Scott Walker’s decisive victory in Wisconsin, it will renergize the troops and momentarily pause the naysayers. More importantly, it explodes the myth of Romney the evil, heartless tycoon that Obama has spent several hundred million dollars to create.

    As is the case in any war, a counter attack is coming. We must press the fight now to deprive Obama and his MSM acolytes of a chance to effectively regroup. On Oct 11, Paul Ryan will take on Uncle Joe. They won’t be caught asleep this time. Ryan needs to project the competence and mastery of the issues that caused him to be selected by Romney. He needs to deflect the sound bites and platitudes that are certainly coming and score some hits of his own. Axelrod will equip Biden with traps that Ryan needs to avoid. Ryan needs to come with several of his own. Usually the VP debate is a sideshow. This time, it will be watched more closely as it can stall or reinforce the momentum from Wednesday’ shellacking of The Amateur.

  • freemkts

    The race should shift towards Romney after last night but I don’t expect to see it in the polls. As long as pollsters keep skewing their samples to overstate Dem support then very little will change. I doubt Romney actually changed many liberals minds last night. The reality on the ground may be quite different however. Remember how Obama was going to beat Hilary in NH in 2008? Didn’t work out that way did it? I kinda hope the polls keep putting out bogus numbers because the meltdown on Nov 6 on MSNBC will be must see TV.

  • jamesm

    “It was a surgical dissection of the little man who bluffed his way to the White House in 2008 but has since been exposed as a poseur and fraud.”
    .
    Now that is Front Page raw meat. Romney has never been knocked out and Obamawimp sure ain’t gonna get it done.