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Great News From Rasmussen

By: barleycorn (Diary)  |  October 6th, 2012 at 10:24 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

As predicted here (toot toot) today’s numbers from Rasmussen show Romney up 49-47. This is actually a little faster and more dramatic than I expected them to move.

Today’s tracking poll numbers would be made up of Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday so tomorrow’s poll will be the first entirely post-debate poll and may move another point toward Romney.

Barring a major backlash from Big Bird enthusiasts I now think its reasonable to expect Romney to maintain the lead in Rasmussen through the Veep debate next Thursday.

If Ryan does well (and I have few doubts that he will) and if Romney can do no worse than tie Obama in the next debate/town hall, this election could become surprisingly crystallized in Romney’s favor over the next two weeks.

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  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    WOO HOOO!!!

    I have noticed a distinct lack of polling news after debate #1, perhaps a sign that the liberal media cant manufacture a ‘Obama has put it away’ narrative and is unwilling to report the ‘Romney’s debate win vaults him to lead’ narrative.

    • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

      I have to retract my ‘lack of polling’ point, the media are holding back, but other polling is coming out, and the shift is 4-5 points, so what was an Obama 3pt lead is now a Romney 1-2 pt lead.

  • jamesm

    Obama is in trouble. After the debate Republican registration went straight up. There will be more likely Republican voters in Novermber then Democrats. The polling is slanted Obama by a few points. We are still seeing D+3 to D+7 samples which in barely within the MOE of what is likely to happen. In reality Romney has already broken 50% nationally.

    • NOBAMA2012

      The American people can longer be fooled!!! Watch the liberals lie and feign moral outrage as their savior falls from grace.

      • jamesm

        If Rasmussens party affiliation poll is any where close to being accurate then AllaababaObama will be a former savior. :)

  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    Polls show Romney making swing state gains:

    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/260511-polls-show-romney-making-swing-state-charge

  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    MORE GOOD POLLING NEWS. Last week Reuters Ipsos poll tightened to a lead of 2 for Obama from a lead of 8 for Obama last week – so a 6 point shift:

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/05/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE8931E420121005

    Clarus Research also shows a Romney lead of 1, a shift of 5 from an Obama lead of 4 just 2 days prior:
    http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/clarus-15562

    Both Rasmussen and WeAskAmerica have Romney up in FL, VA both and in OH, WeAskAmerica has Romney up 1, and Ras has Obama up 1.

    One can conlude that, if Obama had a slight lead prior to the debate … IT’S GONE.

  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    ANother one on RCP shows Romney up in Colorado!

    ColoradoMcLaughlin/ACU (R)Obama 46, Romney 50Romney +4

  • http://www.facebook.com/joel.tamburo Joel Tamburo

    I think Rasmussen is the closest and they are using a D+3 at present (I think). However they may be undersampling independents as they have Mitt up by 16 with them but leading only 2 overall.

    I really don’t mind their using a D+3 despite their current poll on party ID being R+4 because it is better to be cautious in things like this.

  • fightnright

    Looking at recent attacks against O from the left (including the ‘empty chair’ cover of the New Yorker featured on Drudge), I’ve been wondering if the economy + Benghazi-gate + Barry’s disastrous debate performance might equal an expanded departure of moderate and establishment Dems from providing strong Obama support – on the trail, financially and verbally.. BHO is such an amateur and radical that his ‘leadership’ may damage the Democrat brand for Kennedy/Reagan Dems for a decade.

    And they do have Hillary salivating in the wings waiting for her chance at 8 (or 12 years, see: NYC; Bloomberg). OTOH, if Romney sends the economy and jobs soaring, Hill gets tied to a post in the backyard till 2020, and maybe permanently.

    What a dilemma for the left and the DNC – now *my* heart breaks, Joe =)

  • NOBAMA2012

    The voice of the people will shake the roof of the world. The false prophet Obama will be ousted from his position of false power and a new era of conservative values will reign supreme!

  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    MORE GOOD POLLING NEWS!

    Wenzel Strategies shows Mandel up 4 pts, Romney up 1pt in Ohio!

    “Republican U.S. Senate candidate Josh Mandel has a 46% to 42% lead over first-term incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown, with 13% undecided. This represents a break-out for Mandel, as Brown has led by a small margin in this race for months, other polling has shown.”

    The sample btw is a D+1 sample.

    If Romney hangs on to leads in OH, CO, FL, and VA, the lights go out on Obama.

    • commonsenseobserver

      Outlier…
      Mandel shouldn’t be outperforming Mitt…

      • jamesm

        Looked at the internals of the poll. Sherrod Browns numbers are not good. I wonder if the Delphi pension issue is hurting him and pushing more voters into the undecided column.This is going to be a close one on election day. Josh Mandel needs to close the sale.

  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    But wait … THERE’S MORE …. now PPP, a Democrat-leaning pollster shows Romney down by only 2 in Wisconsin! This is another ’5 point shift from last week’ poll result, confirming that the debate did have an impact:

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-lead-down-to-2-in-wisconsin.html

    • jamesm

      Saw that poll and the internals. This race is essentially a deadheat. 1 or 2 point swing means a Romney/Ryan victory. My bet this state goes Repub. The Wisconsin GOP will turn out the vote.

      • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

        That rates a WOW! if WI is that close, then so is IA. If Romney has CO, IA and WI, I dont think he even needs OH (assuming he takes FL and VA).

        Will this hold through the other debates? See my other post “Why Obama choked”. I believe Obama’s problem is not cured with a better debate performance – the campaign narrative has changed and Obama cant convince swing voters on the basis of a strawman. This debate may end up being the most important debate since the 1980 debate.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Valley-Forge/100003289536959 Valley Forge

    @Freedoms – Given PPP’s notorious D lean this points to an even or slight Romney lead. Plus they find him trailing by 9 among Independents even though Walker won Independents by 9 in June. If Romney were to merely pull even with Independents in this poll the topline would move 3 points towards Romney.

    Even better, 2/3rds of the poll was taken AFTER the jobs report.