The RCP average as I write has Mitt Romney up by half a point.  This is a huge improvement over a week ago but it should not be cause for unbridled excitement.

This is a race that will be decided by turnout. With just under four weeks to go anything could still happen. If I were to compare this to a football game I’d say there is about 8 minutes left in the game, Romney is up a field goal and he has the ball.

But Barack Obama is still president with vast power at his disposal. Given his lack of concern for honesty and fair-play in the past, it would be naive to think his team is completely out of dirty tricks.