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Somewhere between Gallup and Nate Silver.

By: barleycorn (Diary)  |  October 19th, 2012 at 05:48 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

The title tells you where I think this race is 18 days from election day. Razor close and dependent on GOTV.

Over the past several days Gallup has moved out to a lonely spot among the national polls showing Mitt Romney up by 7 yesterday and by 6 today.  While Gallup now shows Romney up 51-45 in its seven day tracker, Rasmussen shows a dead even tie at 48-48 in its three day tracker. However Rasmussen says that in the two days since debate, Romney has been slightly ahead. Among the other polls in the RCP average, none show Obama by more than 3 points and none show him at or above 50%.

One important note: Its my understanding that Rasmussen weights for party ID. Its my further understanding that he re-norms at the beginning of each month. If I am correct then it means that the Rasmussen numbers are based on party ID numbers that were generated prior to the first, very consequential, debate.

When Rasmussen re-norms on November 1, we may well see a bump related to party ID changes that occurred in response to the first debate. Naturally other events will also factor into those numbers, but at this writing there can be no doubt that the October 3 debate was an earthquake that stands unchallenged as the major event of this campaign.

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  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    It’s cute that you trust the New York Times’s house hack.

    • barleycorn

      Neil I don’t understand. I don’t have faith in Nate Silver and certainly didn’t express any here. I think he is way off base with his current 65-35 Obama-Romney position. Totally puzzled by your comment.

      • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

        The title of your post has Silver’s projects as a bound of reality. The title of your posts also suggests that you’re *reading* Nate Silver.

        Silver is a hack propping up partisan hopes and polling, who was in collusion with the Obama campaign last time, and possibly this time through an intermediary.

        His name shouldn’t even crop up in realistic conversations.

        • barleycorn

          Oh come on Neil, you’re just being grumpy now. We are conservatives, we don’t allow anyone to assign our reading material. I read several high profile liberal writers because I want to know what they are up to (it also can be good entertainment). I’ve watched Nate Silver long enough (since before he started doing political stuff) to know he is a clever adversary who bears watching.

          • APA Guy

            Nate Silver is a Daily Kos writer…screen name “Poblano”. He is a left-wing “statistics” guy who writes and analyzes much the same way that MSM polling tries to set the narrative, then come back to reality as the election nears. His crap is NOT to be trusted any more than the words of his darling kos kid blog.

          • barleycorn

            As noted above I am familiar with Silver. Reading his stuff is quite interesting. His spin is wearing very thin at this point and the fun part now is anticipating how he will try to extricate himself. I suspect he is waiting to see if Obama can pull a rabbit out of his hat in the final debate. Assuming that the debate is uneventful I think Silver will slowly begin to narrow his numbers as the week progresses..

          • barleycorn

            This line from Silver’s column yesterday caught my eye:

            “…the percentage estimates in the forecast are likely to be volatile from here on out.”

            Ya think?

          • APA Guy

            Yep…the guy’s a complete turd. He was a mainstay on Olbermann’s program for years and has been dragged kicking and screaming into the statistical reality that is Obama’s imploding campaign. Pathetic.

          • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

            Perhaps. I’m just pushing an agenda that our side needs to start treating Silver like every other worthless hack on the funny pages.

          • Melody Warbington

            I’m totally on board with that agenda, Neil. The entire lot of progressive hacks are in the tank for Obama and should be treated accordingly, including Candy.