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What If The Economy Improves ?

By: RightinSanFrancisco (Diary)  |  November 5th, 2011 at 09:47 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Fie on conventional wisdom. What if the “consensus of all reputable economists” is wrong and things actually do get better? Not good, but at least enough better that the White House and the New York Times can make the “it took longer than we expected, but we are now on the right track” argument. The current 75% wrong track opinion will change if unemployment somehow gets below 8% and foreclosures slow down – and a billion dollar campaign will affect fickle voters.

So, what is the President’s palaver line?

1. He inherited the problem. There is some expansion from the “it’s Bush’s fault” argument to include all past presidents and Congresses. There’s no point in getting bogged down in the fact that much of the financial deregulation happened under Clinton, or that Pelosi controlled the House from 2006 until 2010. In fact, if Clinton gets some of the blame, that’s not all bad for the Obama wing of the party.

2. Recovery has been slow because Congress got in the way. In recognition of the fact that the House has passed 15 jobs related bills which Harry Reid refuses to consider in the Senate, the villain is “Congress”, not just the “Party of No” in the House. In fact, Congress’ 13% approval rating includes the most disliked politicians in America, Nancy Pelosi, and her Senate counterpart, Harry Reid, as well as Boehner and McConnell’s Republicans. Be ecumenical, blame them all.

3. Times have been tough – the earthquake in Japan; the financial system problems in Europe; the oil spill in the Gulf; the unexplained die-off of honey bees. Maybe an asteroid.

4. There’s been a lot of good stuff – the use of TARP to bail out the auto industry; the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to protect the masses from the unscrupulous bankers; fighting for extended unemployment benefits, mortgage restructuring, protection of teachers, etc. etc. etc. All good talking points for a stump speech that amps up spending to buy votes.

5. And if all else fails, he can resort to class warfare and racism.  And if that doesn’t work, perhaps an 11th hour announcement of an Afghan withdrawal.

The Republican challenge must not be a point-by-point rebuttal, or something dependent on short term trends. Trust the public to understand that the decline of America can be reversed.

1. The Democrats have mortgaged the future. Obama’s multiple trillion dollar deficits are the largest in history; he accumulated more debt in three years than Bush did in eight. (Bush’s unpaid Medicare prescription drug benefit, Iraq war, and No Child Left Behind ripped the budget. No excuses, but that doesn’t mean that it is OK to triple down.) Trust that it is not in our genes to dump the bill on our grand-kids.

2.  It is time that the country had some adult supervision. Pelosi’s House Democrats, Reid’s Senate Democrats, and Obama’s White House have all avoided the requirement for budgets. Whether or not one agrees with specifics, every individual and family understands that it is necessary to make trade-offs; the Democrats have instead refused to make the choices domestically that we are critical of Greece and the other Europeans for not making. We are not exempt.

3. America’s greatness comes from its belief in the individual and the power of the free enterprise system, not from the government’s ability to provide for everybody’s employment, housing, diet, and health-care. If we have lost this, the game is over for the U.S. of A.

4. And if all else fails,  Solyndra, Fast and Furious, and the defeatist “leading from behind” international strategy.

Unfortunately, the guy handing out candy frequently wins in a democracy, so a clear Republican message is needed.  The election cannot be a lesson in economics, an argument about a different tax code, or just a negative critique of Obama’s failures.  The Republican candidate must exhibit a true belief in the power of the free enterprise system, enough experience to demonstrate that he knows how to get it back on track, and a believable moral and political commitment to open the opportunity to all citizens. Mitt Romney can make this sale; perhaps others can also, but I’ll go with the sure thing.

—–

This week’s video is an interview with Dick Durbin of Illinois, one of the Senate’s most powerful liberals, who agrees that Obama would lose a referendum on the performance of his administration.

COMMENTS

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  • lastgopinillinois

    has passed FIFTEEN pro-growth economy related bills this year, each of which Harry Reid wont bring to the Senate floor.

    I’ll bey it you went out in the street and asked 50 people if they new that, you might get one guy who is aware of it. All most people know for sure is that nothing is getting done, hence the lowest approval ratings of congress in recorded history.

    But if you ask me, I am more favorable of the House of representatives attempts at restarting our economy. The senate gets an “F” My biggest gripe about the House this year was how they handled the debt ceiling debaucle which ended up giving the communists in the Senate the upper hand.

    There is a danger IMO that if the economy does improve, 0 bama would undoubtedly take credit for it and use it to get re-elected. This brings me back to the biggest problem the Republicans have with the public. They dont get the message out. They wont open their mouths because they believe the MSM and the liberal in congress will spin whatever they say backward.

    But dont worry too much. The economy is not going to improve until some major changes in regulatory and tax policy at a minimum are in place. This administration isnt going there.

  • geoph

    What is wrong with this Country goes well beyond the economy, though it may have it’s roots in economics, and this is where Liberal opposition has faltered.

    Is everything peachy with America should unemployment drop to 3%?
    if you bought into the line: it’s the economy, stupid – you are only being played again. A robust economy only enables us to more easily overlook the problems.
    If you are only concerned ObamaCare will us more, you’ve missed the big picture. If you are only concerned the stimulus has wasted money and moved us closer to insolvency, you are seeing short term.
    The problem is the size and power of our Federal Government, and it’s ability to weaken the American culture, folklore, and heritage. To be American today means no more than to be a citizen of America, when historically it has always meant so much more.
    So whether our economy has a bandage applied or we just bleed out this time,
    is pretty much irrelevant, since it will take more than a bandage to heal the wound killing our Nation.

    • Ausonius

      Remember Pelosi, Schumer, Reid, etc. etc. etc. screaming 7 or 8 years ago that 5% unemployment was a “jobless recovery” ? That the Republicans were overseeing the “worst economy in History” ?

      Those soundbites should be dredged up for the campaign next year, so they can bite every Dem on the bottom!

      You are quite right: America has more than economic problems. The general spread of fear, the constant need for security, the growth of envy, the growth of sloth, the selfish “entitlement” mentality in the younger generations, the spread of illiteracy and aliteracy with their attendant disease of poor thinking, the absolutely bizarre social experimentation of normalizing homosexuality and allowing homosexuals to raise children, the lack of self-control in eating (I swear I see a majority of people at Wal-Mart at a minimum of 80 pounds overweight) and sexuality (TV, movies, the Internet), and a host of other idiocies, all of which are fostered by politicians feeding the conditions, will augur nothing good about the future.

      • geoph

        Rather, the path to recovery begins with the States.

        • Ausonius

          North Dakota of all places is now booming: those who claim that Americans will not live where the Winter is Winter should see that North Dakota defies that right now.

          Basically, places where right-to-work laws are in place, with low or no state income taxes, are not doing badly DESPITE the idiocy in D.C.

          We would alll be doing better of course with Conservatives actually cutting back government programs, putting through tort reform, firing government bureaucrats especially in Edumbcation and Energy, canceling idiocy like the Hell-th Care bill, etc. instead “moderate Republicans” compromising on how slowly we can bankrupt and ruin the country.

          We all have our fantasies! :)

  • Kyle-MI

    Perry has the deeds. It was how he ran Texas.

    Now if we could just genetically splice their DNA so that we could get someone with a conservative pro-growth record who could actually articulate it. Of course, knowing the prowess of the GOP we would probably get candidate with a lousy record who would be constantly tripping over their own tongue.

  • nathanalbright

    n/t

  • valrobex

    Dear Right -

    Your concerns are understandable but the “conventional wisdom” is coming from those self-same liberals in the MSM & the Fed Reserve who want to forecast “great news” in support of The Chosen One. The fact they’re forecasting modest improvement means they see something just short of disaster (or worse) for our economy. Consider the usual economic reports: “Unexpectedly lower than predicted…” “Below expectations…” etc.

    If the European Union crashes, it will be a terrible blow to the US economy. If you’ve kept up with the European soap opera, what recently occurred will most likely fall apart within a few months.

    The US has good economic under pinning but the Bamster’s policies keep investment under wraps. And it’s highly unlikely he will change. Consequently, our economy will remain anemic because investors see no place to put their liquidity.

    Capital seeks out where it is best “treated.” That place used to be the US, and until recently it was China. But China has some severe economic problems of its own. Capital won’t go to Europe – not with all the silliness going on and there are few other places to put it so it remains on the sidelines until things improve somewhere.

    Keep the faith. It is highly unlikely that your fears will be realized. Unfortunately, our economy will most likely languish until a new president (Republican) is elected.

  • http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil truth

    The elections isn’t like picking fruit off a tree, we’ll need to sell our competing product. And if we don’t start that marketing our alternative soon, our performance will be subpar at best.

    Relying on a bad economy to persist through 2012 is a risky bet. And even so, the Democrats are experts at deflecting anger and blame, with the help of the media complementing their PR blitzes.

  • http://www.skiloveland.com skicougar

    paraphrasing my investments thread response:

    From financial armegeddon:

  • Xasteius

    less government (e.g. a lot of the past debates have focused on federalism, reducing the size of government, and the 10th amendment).

  • jrmax13

    How does the fact that Greece keeps coming to the edge over and over and over affect our economy – if at all. It seems like they would just be better off “ripping the bandaid off” quickly by defaulting and just getting the whole thing over with. These delays and stall tactics must be affecting economies elsewhere.

  • Xasteius

    Just making sure.

  • Wayne

    capital’s best friend provided we remain a free society reasonably dedicated to the individual and individual freedom.

    Capital will always orbit around the U.S. for those reasons alone. However, the Greece crisis will continue to keep the markets in turmoil through the next few months and things will get worse when they default. The E.U. will cascades into economic chaos and the impact will be felt around the world.

    I’m not an economist, but I’ve been self employed for over three decades and my empirical experience tells me that while the economy cannot improve sufficiently to aid BO’s reelection it can and mostly likely will get worse before it gets better.

  • http://www.BillBowenAuthor.com RightinSanFrancisco

    Valrobex: I Agree that things won’t get better under Obama – and in fact the underpinnings of our economy will continue to be eroded. I just hate to be hoping that things will remain bleak – particularly for the millions of unemployed – and think that conservatives should be emphasizing our own positive message rather than depending on the masses to respond rationally to the Obama financial disaster.

  • http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil truth

    …is that the Republican strategy appears to be primarily making the 2012 election a referendum on the economy, i.e. Obama’s performance on the economy, rather than building a mandate for conservative change. Without that mandate, all that will happen is that we will own the problem without being able to solve it, which will spell electoral defeat come 2014 or 2016.

    Only Gingrich seems to be laying out the case for conservatism and eviscerating liberalism/socialiam. He’s not my choice at this time, but whoever does win needs to step up to the plate like him.

  • valrobex

    The Greek fiasco is not a threat to the US in and of itself, although American investors that took on Greek sovereign debt will take a bath. What threatens the US is the demise of the European Union which accounts for approximately 20% of US exports.

    When Greece defaults, all the holders of Greek debt take a hit; the major holders of that debt are the EU banks. This causes a domino effect – less capital available for the debt holders to lend to their domestic customers, creating credit shortfalls. This will result in an EU recession that will worsen when Italy, Spain, Portugal, etc. default as well. When that happens Europeans will reduce their demand for American goods.

    That’s when the US gets hit. Our economy is fragile at best and should the inevitable happen, the US economy will nose dive.

    The EU was structurally unsound to begin with. Some bankers and economic/political wonks thought that a “United Europe” would benefit everyone. Sounds great on paper. But when one or more sovereign country acts like a “drug addict” and spends like there’s no tomorrow (aka: Greece) then the other member nations will suffer – just like the family members of an active drug addict suffer because of the actions of the addict.

    Your suggestion that Greece should just “default” and get the pain over with is probably the best solution and the one that will eventually occur. But now that the European nations are economically tied together it will have tremendous economic repercussions for all the other member nations and indirectly the US as well.