There is a thought that the only economic number that matters for President Obama’s reelection is the headline unemployment rate as of November 6, 2012. Unfortunately, reality is a bit more complex. I am among the group that believes that a “Budget Grand Bargain” is needed if the country is to avoid effective bankruptcy. Paul Ryan offered his half – Medicare reform; Medicaid reform; discretionary budget cuts; | Read More »
This is my first and last posting about Donald Trump. It will be short. It is important. Donald Trump has none of the skills and experiences necessary to be president of the United States. He does understand bankruptcies (three times), use of low quality loans to finance risky real estate transactions, and use of bullying to appeal to the public’s baser instincts. He exceeds Barack Obama | Read More »
With the realistic 2012 presidential candidates – Obama, Romney, Pawlenty – launching their campaigns amid little chance of major bipartisan budget compromise, it is useful to understand the metrics that will determine success before they get too twisted by the candidates and the media. Where are we now, really; and where will we likely be in the fall of 2012. 1. Current prosperity. - | Read More »
Paul Ryan has presented a vision of a fiscally sound America with the federal government consuming the historic 20% of Gross Domestic Product. Barack Obama has presented a vision of an America where federal spending continues at his accelerated 25% of GDP and accumulated debt exceeds that of the weakest countries in Europe. This is the beginning of a long negotiation – the Democrats will add increased taxes | Read More »
Sometimes how you say something is more important than what you say. Listening to some of the potential 2012 Republican candidates and reading lots of conservative blogs, I get nervous that people don’t understand the basics of messaging. The key point that seems to get lost: candidates that win are optimists. Some applications: 1. Yes we have a terrible debt and budget problem. Yes | Read More »
As Don Rumsfeld so cleverly said, there are known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns. Unfortunately the administration is floundering in the latter. First the known knowns: - Perhaps the best early military strategist, Sun Tzu, stressed having profound understanding of your enemy and allies and maneuvering in such a way that battle is unnecessary. This was extended in the post-Vietnam “Powell Doctrine“: if you do need | Read More »
With the New York Times celebrating the return of the absentee Wisconsin senators to victory celebrations in Madison, it is worth a few reflections on what has happened. There are two dimensions: In Wisconsin Wisconsin public employees will be required to contribute 5.8% of their salaries to pensions and 12.6 % to health care plans (about an 8 % salary cut) toward closing a $137 million deficit | Read More »
Lets connect a few dots: Dot 1. In the 2008 election Wall Street contributed disproportionately to Obama and the Democrats, forming a significant chunk of his financial base. Obama’s new chief of staff is Bill Daley who has strong Wall Street connections, including a stint with JP Morgan Chase. Obama’s campaign war chest this cycle will exceed $1 billion. Dot 2. Phil Angelides’ Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission assessment | Read More »
Successful foreign policy requires a bit of idealism (particularly in a democracy) and a lot of Realpolitik. The strategy must be well understood by the leaders, but a bit of ambiguity is needed to prevent the adversaries from attacking the weak points. First, the idealism: George Bush and Condi Rice pushed the idea that the spread of democracy in the Muslim world would serve as | Read More »
For the next few years elections will be won or lost on the issue of fiscal responsibility. Everybody was scared by the collapse of 2008, understands that trillion dollar deficits are unsustainable, realizes that Social Security/Medicare/Medicaid must be scaled back (the sooner the better), and that the fat years must be followed by some lean years. If President Obama remains AWOL and the Republicans don’t let | Read More »
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