Pew Research and CNN predict a clear win for Mitt Romney
There's no precedent for Independents and Catholics voting strongly for the losing candidate
As people smarter than me have said, such as RedState’s Dan McLaughlin and The Weekly Standard’s Jay Cost, there is no precedent for BOTH the national polls being correct, and Barack Obama winning re-election. If Obama wins, either national polls have been wrong about Independent voters, or Obama sets a new precedent.
- George W. Bush won Independent voters 46-45%.
- Al Gore won Catholics 50-46%.
- Bush won white voters 53-43%.
- Gore won moderates 53-43%.
- George W. Bush lost Independents by one point, 48-49%.
- Bush won Catholics 52-47%.
- Bush won whites 58-41%.
- John Kerry won moderates, 54-45%.
- Kerry won union households 59-40%.
- Obama won Independents 52-44%.
- Obama won Catholics 54-45%.
- John McCain won whites 55-43%.
- Obama won moderates 60-39%.
- Obama won union households 59-39%.
The Pew Research Center’s most recent national poll was released Sunday, November 4. Obama was ahead 50-47% among likely voters. But go to pages eight and nine, and the internal numbers are very good for Mitt Romney:
- Independent voters favor Romney 44-41%, with a large 15% undecided.
- Catholics favor Romney 49-47%, with 4% undecided.
- Romney wins white voters 54-37%, with 7% undecided.
- Obama wins moderates 56-35%, with 8% undecided.
- Obama wins labor union households 57-37%, with 6% undecided.
- Romney wins Independent voters 59-35%.
- Romney wins white voters 56-39%, with 1% “no opinion.”
- Obama wins moderates 57-36%, with 1% “no opinion.”
Connect with Benjamin Hodge at Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, Google Plus, Tumblr, mrcTV.org, YouTube, The Kansas Progress, and LibertyLinked. Hodge is President of the State and Local Reform Group of Kansas. He served as a member of the Kansas House of Representatives, an at-large trustee at Johnson County Community College, a delegate to the Kansas Republican Party, a Republican precinct committeeman in Johnson County, and was founder of the modern Overland Park Republican Party. His public policy record is recognized by Americans for Prosperity, the Kansas Association of Broadcasters, the Kansas Press Association, the Kansas Sunshine Coalition for Open Government, the NRA, Fox News’ Bill O’Reilly, the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education (FIRE), and Kansans for Life.