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Pew Research and CNN predict a clear win for Mitt Romney

There's no precedent for Independents and Catholics voting strongly for the losing candidate

By: Benjamin Hodge (Diary)  |  November 5th, 2012 at 01:00 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

As people smarter than me have said, such as RedState’s Dan McLaughlin and The Weekly Standard’s Jay Cost, there is no precedent for BOTH the national polls being correct, and Barack Obama winning re-election.  If Obama wins, either national polls have been wrong about Independent voters, or Obama sets a new precedent.

Here are national exit polls for 2000, 2004, and 2008.

In 2000:
  • George W. Bush won Independent voters 46-45%.
  • Al Gore won Catholics 50-46%.
  • Bush won white voters 53-43%.
  • Gore won moderates 53-43%.
In 2004:
  • George W. Bush lost Independents by one point, 48-49%.
  • Bush won Catholics 52-47%.
  • Bush won whites 58-41%.
  • John Kerry won moderates, 54-45%.
  • Kerry won union households 59-40%.
In 2008:
  • Obama won Independents 52-44%.
  • Obama won Catholics 54-45%.
  • John McCain won whites 55-43%.
  • Obama won moderates 60-39%.
  • Obama won union households 59-39%.

The Pew Research Center’s most recent national poll was released Sunday, November 4.  Obama was ahead 50-47% among likely voters.  But go to pages eight and nine, and the internal numbers are very good for Mitt Romney:

  • Independent voters favor Romney 44-41%, with a large 15% undecided.
  • Catholics favor Romney 49-47%, with 4% undecided.
  • Romney wins white voters 54-37%, with 7% undecided.
  • Obama wins moderates 56-35%, with 8% undecided.
  • Obama wins labor union households 57-37%, with 6% undecided.
CNN’s November 4 poll shows a tie at 48% apiece, 2% for the Libertarian Party candidate, 1% for the Green Party nominee, and 1% “no opinion.”  On page 34, one reads:

  • Romney wins Independent voters 59-35%.
  • Romney wins white voters 56-39%, with 1% “no opinion.”
  • Obama wins moderates 57-36%, with 1% “no opinion.”

______________________

Connect with Benjamin Hodge at Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, Google Plus, Tumblr, mrcTV.org, YouTube, The Kansas Progress, and LibertyLinked. Hodge is President of the State and Local Reform Group of Kansas.  He served as a member of the Kansas House of Representatives, an at-large trustee at Johnson County Community College, a delegate to the Kansas Republican Party, a Republican precinct committeeman in Johnson County, and was founder of the modern Overland Park Republican Party.  His public policy record is recognized by Americans for Prosperity, the Kansas Association of Broadcasters, the Kansas Press Association, the Kansas Sunshine Coalition for Open Government, the NRA, Fox News’ Bill O’Reilly, the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education (FIRE), and Kansans for Life.

 


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  • WA_Cowboy

    who are these “moderates” who break 50% more toward obama? Moderate socialists?

  • mt2az

    You seem to be operating under the assumption that Independents, Catholics, and union members look the same in 2012 as in all previous elections. That’s a bad assumption. Electorates change. Demographics change.

    • benjaminhodgeks

      No, I didn’t say that they look the same. I am saying that they are similar.

      Regardless, you’re telling me that the average Catholic has changed significantly since four years ago? They’re still getting accustomed to the outcome of the Second Vatican Council of 1962.

      Union members… I’m also pretty certain that their main objective hasn’t changed much (keeping the same job with more benefits).

      Independents… I can meet you half-way on that one. I realize that partisanship is a state of mind that can change year-to-year. But the English language has not changed since 2000 — to be “politically independent” consistently means to be not a fan of either of the major two political parties. It is instructive — not with complete precision, but it is instructive — to look at patterns over time.

      I’m still chuckling over your changing-with-the-wind Catholic…

      • mt2az

        US Catholics have gone from about 12% Latino to 30% Latino in just the last decade. The church says they’ll break 50% around 2020. Given that they’re nearly all Democrats, that’s a big change.

        Union membership has swung wildly from male dominated to nearly even between the sexes as male union jobs in things like manufacturing disappeared, while female union jobs in things like healthcare and teaching have grown greatly. Again, a huge change given the gender gap.

        And Independents have gone from 30% of the country to 38% of the country, while Republicans have gone from 30% to 24%. Not coincidentally the share of independents calling themselves conservative and has gone up as that shift occurred. And yes, once again this means that indies vote Republican more than they did a decade ago.

        So yeah, demographic groups change, and it changes how they vote. Anyone taking it upon themselves to write about the nitty-gritty details of a poll should have understood this.

        • congressworksforus

          Umm, Republicans are 24% of the country?

          I think not.

          Whils RVs are not “all adults,” Ras has Rep RVs at 37%. Somehow I don’t think they lose 1/3 of the people in that kind of switch.

          Nice try though.

    • APA Guy

      Yes…electorates change…and in the case of 2012, Independents have broken cleanly away from Obama and flocked to Romney…spelling doom for Obama.

  • congressworksforus

    One other note about the Pew Poll.

    On page 11 (IIRC) it shows the difference between RV and LV for the elections back to 1996.

    In every year, the Dems have at best had LV equal to RV, but usually 1 or 2 points less (2008 they underperformed by 1 point). In every year, Reps have at worst exceeded RV voters by at least 3 points.

    According to Pew, in 2012 Dem LVs will be +1 over RVs, while Rep LVs will be only +2.

    More fantasyland from pollsters trying to rig the final result.

  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    Why wouldnt moderates favor the moderate Romney over the far-left Obama.

    • GremlinJones

      I asked my son this question, who is a moderate but prefers Obama in this election. In his view, Obama and Romney are both centrists, and it’s a tough call for him, but he thinks the GOP has veered sharply to the right in recent years thanks to all the press from the MSM on Bachmann, West, Palin, etc.

  • http://www.TerriersOfTheRight.blogspot.com Flagstaff

    Ben, I tried my best to make sense out of this, but I can’t. The problem with all such analyses is that comparison groups usually aren’t mutually exclusive (there is overlap), and information about how the sizes of the groups compare isn’t usually provided.

    That’s why I like these ideas:

    Republicans go for Romney, Independents go for Romney, Democrats go for Obama, and all are mutually exclusive. There are more of the first two in total than of the third group. Are there enough of anything else left to swing the election to Obama?

    Men support Romney. Older women support Romney. Younger women support Obama. All mutually exclusive. Are there enough younger women to overcome the other two groups?

    I’m more worried about the electoral college than about the final total.

    I notice that more and more people are calling it a Chick-fil-A election, as I did two days and more ago.

    http://www.redstate.com/producersusancloud/2012/11/03/mitt-im-sorry/#comment-699974194