
Yesterday was the first day of the rest of Wall Street’s life. At the beginning of this year, there were five major broker-dealers. In March, the Bear Stearns Companies were acquired by JP Morgan Chase with a large assist from the Federal Reserve.
Yesterday, Lehman Brothers filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. On Sunday, Merrill Lynch agreed to be acquired by the Bank of America.
As we proceeded through the morning hours, I felt that the flurry of selling on nearly all markets wasn’t as disorderly or panic-stricken as could well have been feared, and on the whole things were proceeding reasonably well. That was then.
As the day wore on, reports starting coming in about AIG Inc.,the large insurance holding-company. And things started getting worse.
It’s easy to think that we’re now in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. That’s partly because no less a figure than Barack Obama (who would dearly like a chance to show us how little he really knows about finance) has told us so.
But we’ve had several periods of extraordinary and sustained distress quite recently. They just flew under the radar and got little or no mass media attention. The first was last August, and the second was in March.
It’s one thing for messianic but poorly-informed Presidential candidates to use scary words. But when participants in the money and credit markets start using words like “Armageddon,” I take that much more seriously. Yesterday we saw clear signs that the financial world is in the grip of extreme fear, the same signs that were in evidence a year ago and a half-year ago.
Let me tell you what those were…
What happened yesterday was that money markets became severely disrupted again. The Fed Funds rate went as high as 6% at one point, and overnight dollar LIBOR stands well above 6% in London this morning.
The unavailability of short-term funds is the classic sign of financial panic, and it has been from time immemorial. When you’re not sure you’ll get your money back, when there’s even the tiniest speck of doubt in your mind about that, you won’t lend money to anyone, and you’ll pull back all the money you’ve already lent.
This is a liquidity crisis, the same kind we had a year ago summer. And just as then, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank issued floods of new liquidity.
We think of the Fed as the regulator of the banking system, the custodian of the mysterious “fed funds rate” and the general panjandrum of good economic health. The truth is that its most important role is to be a lender of last resort in times like this.
When no one wants to lend money, even overnight, someone needs to step in with both the courage and credibility to do so, otherwise panics go from bad to worse.
In our day, this role is more complicated and important than ever, because there are now so many institutions that are engaged in borrowing for short terms and lending for longer ones.
We now have a massive and global “shadow banking system” that is dependent on borrowings in overnight-repo markets, and is at least as large a generator of credit as the normal banking system that takes deposits from the public. It’s also very poorly-understood by regulators. But it’s just as critical to keep it stable as it is to keep the payments that flow between ordinary banks stable.
This should give you a hint of what top financial experts and policymakers were muttering darkly about when they said last March that Bear Stearns, a relatively small broker-dealer, could not be allowed to fail without a government guarantee of its assets.
There are a lot of snakes under this rock. To borrow a phrase from Humphrey Bogart, if Barack Obama thinks that he knows how to get regulatory control over all this, he’s been misinformed. No one knows yet. But it will the most important economic policy debate of the coming years.
This brings to AIG, the insurance holding-company. Twenty-four hours ago, I believed that they would pull through. The fact that they’re now in very serious danger is emblematic of the unusual stresses in the system.
AIG has many very profitable and stable lines of business. It also is a very large insurer of fixed-income securities. As of the end of the second quarter, they had about one trillion dollars in assets, matched by a similar amount of debt (the debt total was about $40 billion lower). They had $80 billion in balance-sheet shareholder equity, and a market capitalization of about $40 billion.
And they’ve lost more than $18 billion over the last three quarters, mostly on losses in mortgage-related debt and derivatives. That means they’re now undercapitalized.
As a member in good standing of the shadow banking system, AIG needs to borrow money continuously to sustain its books of business. And until now, it has relied on its high credit rating to keep its borrowing costs low enough to keep the whole structure afloat.
In good times, this is a marvelous and highly-profitable business. In bad times, the leverage comes around to hurt you.
AIG was already under stress from its losses, and has been seeking to either make its balance sheet smaller or sell equity. It hasn’t been able to do much of the latter with its stock price beaten down so low. And now in the midst of panic selling, it will have a very hard time doing any of the former.
But AIG can’t continue to lose money without triggering defaults in many of its obligations, which include an enormous amount of credit-default swaps on securities that are now suddenly in extreme distress due to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. “Perfect storm” is such a cliché, but there’s not really a better term for this.
AIG has been madly trying to arrange bridge financing from a variety of sources with little success. What they need to do is survive long enough to continue their efforts to sell assets or equity, at what will certainly end up being ruinous prices.
Secretary Paulson and the officials of the Federal Reserve drew the line in the sand this weekend, and said to Wall Street ”no more bailouts!” They were correct to do so and I’m very glad they did. But they may or may not be able to keep this promise in regard to AIG. We’ll know quite shortly.
Bottom line: today is looking a lot uglier than yesterday. And that’s saying something.
Stay tuned.
-Francis Cianfrocca
Jeff Emanuel
Neil Stevens
Caleb Howe
Daniel Horowitz
Question for blackhedd
c17wife (Diary) Tuesday, September 16th at 7:59AM EDT (link)What does all of this mean for someone that has life insurance (and a substantial amoutn of it) through AIG?
Should we be filled with panic yet?
Duty is ours, outcomes belong to God.~Mike Pence
Wachovia & Investment
BigGator5 (Diary) Tuesday, September 16th at 8:25AM EDT (link)I have two questions that pretty much has nothing to do with the current topic:
I bank through Wachovia. Should I be worried about my bank?
I also have this urge to buy stock while they are currently low. Good idea or bad idea right now?
Educated (About The Issues Facing Us Today), Dedicated (To Making A Difference), And Highly Motivated (To Getting Things Done)

Insurance
Francis Cianfrocca (Diary) Tuesday, September 16th at 8:27AM EDT (link)I don’t think you have to worry, and this is why. Insurance companies are regulated largely through state law. New York State regulates AIG. There are extremely strict divisions within AIG to cover all of the kinds of insurance they write, and the different books of business are kept completely separate from each other.
So if you purchased an insurance product from AIG (like an annuity or a property-casualty policy), they are required to maintain a pool of safe assets that are related specifically to that underwriting pool. And those assets can’t be used for any other purpose (including keeping the overall holding company from going bankrupt).
This is how the law ensures that AIG will be able to pay its obligations to its insureds.
Now if you had gone to AIG to buy a credit-default swap on a few hundred million dollars’ worth of Ford Motor bonds or something like that, then I’d be worried.
Wachovia's apparentyl toast, too.
MikeWas (Diary) Tuesday, September 16th at 8:33AM EDT (link)But your deposits under $100,000 are insured by the FDIC.
A revolutionary approach to the credit default swap market:
streetwise (Diary) Tuesday, September 16th at 8:41AM EDT (link)When you start to worry about the creditworthiness of a holding, sell it!
Why spend money on untested snake oil?
:>)
Blackhedd?
BigGator5 (Diary) Tuesday, September 16th at 8:52AM EDT (link)I’m sorry, I thought I was asking Blackhedd.
Educated (About The Issues Facing Us Today), Dedicated (To Making A Difference), And Highly Motivated (To Getting Things Done)

Well, if AIG goes under
kowalski (Diary) Tuesday, September 16th at 9:27AM EDT (link)If AIG goes under, at least I’m well positioned to profit from the catastrophe by printing these and teaching people how to use them.
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Well said and this is why this election is ...
ridewind (Diary) Tuesday, September 16th at 10:07AM EDT (link)Why this is election is so important. If anyone think the elected President is someone who issue a quickfix like just redistributing some dollars and cents then America competitiveness will be just doomed.
This is the time where unity and values shall be recalled for everyone to take some hard look and cut right down to the basics. By now it is clear who is willing to taking even political risk just to unify parties, across parties or not even these meaningless definitions. And the person is not Obama who already divided his party like never before.
I'm not Blackhedd either.
mbecker908 (Diary) Tuesday, September 16th at 10:10AM EDT (link)But I am very familiar with Wachovia.
The bottom line on Wachovia is that they acquired World Savings, along with their assets. World Savings was one of the primary portfolio lenders for Option ARM mortgage products. The other two depository banks who bet the farm on Option ARMS are WAMU and Downey Savings. All three have HUGE non-performing loan portfolios that are growing by the minute.
The primary markets for the Option ARMs that all three marketed was California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada. They sold them in all fifty states, but those markets are where the vast majority of the loans were originated.
Bottom line on their Option ARM portfolios is that I’ve seen guesses as high as 50% for default rates. The subprime portfolios became a crisis at less than 3%.
Not only will all three of these banks not survive in their current form, their non-performing portfolios will hammer the real estate markets in the above states for probably another three to five years.
Notice the (so far)
txchick57 (Diary) Tuesday, September 16th at 10:22AM EDT (link)false breakout over the 50 dma on SKF yesterday and this a.m. Pretty hard to get your mind around how the ultrashort financial SKF is not tracking the bad news, nor is the BKX seeming.
OTOH, this is kinda interesting
http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Aug2007/File/71presenttrack.jpg
"It's time for the bloodletting to occur"
Crowe (Diary) Tuesday, September 16th at 10:27AM EDT (link)I saw this comment at the Youngstown Vindicator opinion page blog and thought it worthy to reproduce here. The commenter is responding to a blog post about an article in the UK Guardian. Interesting take on the whole situation…
“We sleep soundly in our beds only because
rough men stand ready in the night to visit violence upon those who would do us harmDear Leader Obama gives us leave to do so.”For proper perspective, look at the pigeon in the pic.
streetwise (Diary) Tuesday, September 16th at 10:35AM EDT (link)He’s not worried :>)
Do you think another Resolution Trust Co like they created for the S&L's is in order? nt
streetwise (Diary) Tuesday, September 16th at 10:37AM EDT (link)???
bantamwait (Diary) Tuesday, September 16th at 10:41AM EDT (link)Let’s send the Marines to evacuate refugees from Libya and shut down the drug gangs in Mexico–and make the Marine hymn relevant again.
I can't speak publicly about Wachovia...
Francis Cianfrocca (Diary) Tuesday, September 16th at 10:51AM EDT (link)…due to conflict-of-interest, but a prior commenter had it right. Your deposits are FDIC-insured, so leave them there.
The last thing the system needs is panic. And panic is largely unwarranted.
No.
mbecker908 (Diary) Tuesday, September 16th at 10:54AM EDT (link)Let ‘em fail.
If I had to guess about the dynamics of SKF...
Francis Cianfrocca (Diary) Tuesday, September 16th at 11:01AM EDT (link)…I’d say they’re discounting the fact that there is an enormous underbid for the underlying stocks. This situation is like Long Term-1998 in a lot of different ways, but one specific one comes to mind.
Long Term got killed because they couldn’t meet the margin calls on what was a portfolio with a solid stable long-term value. They were absolutely right about most of the trades they put on, but they screwed up the risk covariance and the timing. Four months after they bit the dust, the portfolio was worth nearly par.
Same as now. Everyone is throwing all their marbles in the air. When they all come down, they won’t be worth much less than they were last week, but they will all be owned by different people.
What could be wrong with my rosy analysis? Debt deflation over the next two-three years if the housing market really doesn’t find a bottom. That’s a total-disaster scenario. Unlikely but not impossible.
We're bigger than this
kowalski (Diary) Tuesday, September 16th at 11:11AM EDT (link)And we’re going to be OK. People need to make the necessary adjustments and not take the plunge.
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OTOH, airlines are UP. This is known as the flight to quality. :) nt
streetwise (Diary) Tuesday, September 16th at 11:17AM EDT (link)I am actively working
kowalski (Diary) Tuesday, September 16th at 11:18AM EDT (link)I am actively working to put a floor on the market from my little corner of the world. People with brains understand that’s what’s required right now, and we’re close to the bottom if I have anything to say about it.
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One of the lessons from this fiasco
kowalski (Diary) Tuesday, September 16th at 11:23AM EDT (link)I’ll predict this now: one of the lessons from this fiasco is going to be that people who were truly conservative for the past several years are going to be the ones who stop the slide. They’re not ever going to be people’s darlings, but they shouldn’t be forgotten.
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Life always goes on, as it did during the 73-74 bear market,
streetwise (Diary) Tuesday, September 16th at 11:23AM EDT (link)the stagflation of the late 70′s, the recessions of 1980 and 1981-2, the crash of 87, the recession of 1991-1992, the swap debacle of the mid 1990′s, the implosion of Long Term Capital Mgmt+ the Asian and Russian bubbles of the late 90′s, the dot-com bust of 2000-1, the corporate crime wave of the same vintage, the credit crisis of fall 2007, and so it will go as long as there are markets.
Like the pigeon, we just need to realize that a little birdseed + a good outlook on life goes a long way.
I'd panic, a little bit
WoodenWeasel Tuesday, September 16th at 11:26AM EDT (link)The last thing the system needs might be a panic, but the last thing you need is to have your money tied up waiting for the FDIC to pony up.
It’s unlikely that your bank would fail, that your money would be stuck in it for too long, and that you would have a financial crisis of your own (lose job, whatever), but the consequences would be devastating.
Pulling a chunk of your money out, and putting it somewhere else, would greatly reduce those risks to roughly nil. I wouldn’t pull all my money out — and I certainly wouldn’t put it all in the same place — I trust the FDIC to meet their obligations, but I don’t trust them to always do it in an instantaneous manner.
Let's make it a Speedwagon Day
kowalski (Diary) Tuesday, September 16th at 11:28AM EDT (link)Jim Anchower can spin in his grave
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hard work
jockben Tuesday, September 16th at 11:30AM EDT (link)if we are doing any work it completed successfully it need more hardwork
hardwork is power
jockben
California Dui
If not now, than when?
WoodenWeasel Tuesday, September 16th at 11:38AM EDT (link)It’s easy to make a statement minimizing the situation like this:
But if this isn’t the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, then what was?
I’m not all doom and gloom — there were a lot of mis-valued securities, and it’s going to take a while to shake things out, but we’ll get there — but in my paltry 38 year life, I don’t recall institutions this big failing with this much regularity, or requiring this much government interference.
Was there a greater crisis in the 50′s or 60′s that I am missing? Is there a reason this crisis is not nearly as bad as the 70′s?
Blackhedd, I vaguely recall an earlier post
The_Gadfly (Diary) Tuesday, September 16th at 11:49AM EDT (link)where you indicated the problem there had been an assumption that mortgage derivatives were as good as mortgages, but the linkage got broken when somebody tried to collect on some of the derivatives as if they were mortgages and the courts said ‘No.’ Is that still the fundamental driving force in this market? Of am I misremembering what you wrote? I was hoping to find the blog in your diary but it looks like it was on the old site.
Don't get bitter
kowalski (Diary) Tuesday, September 16th at 11:58AM EDT (link)Things have been worse. The Carter years were the worst I’ve ever seen; neighbors were siphoning gas from each other’s cars in the middle of the night. I caught my next-door neighbor doing it and my father and he almost had a fistfight in the middle of the street. We’ve got serious problems right now with property values, but what has to happen is that a floor needs to be placed underneath them and people need to take a deep breath and * push through * the fear.
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Keating 5 regulator?
Smith Tuesday, September 16th at 12:10PM EDT (link)Right, McCain, one of the Keating 5 who helped stick us taxpayers with a $124.6 billion bill to bail out the banking industry is just the guy to regulate Wall Street now. But wait … he hates regulation, doesn’t he? Or does he? This campaign proves he doesn’t know what he believes anymore, unless he thinks it will help him win.
Dominoes
FWGuy (Diary) Tuesday, September 16th at 12:11PM EDT (link)I wish more more people and politicians realize how interwoven our economy is to the financial system. I consider all this talk about let’em fail, let the blood flow, no Govt bailouts etc., Mantra don’t seem to realiaze how painful it will be for ALL of us.
There is a credit squeeze and crisis going on and like dominoes there will soon be a CDS crisis. When all of the bonds start defaulting more than just investment banks will go out of business.
You will get hurt If:
you own stocks & mutual funds, have to borrow money for a car, or home on a credit card, want insurance on your car or home.
Some basic facts When you destroy wealth and finance business like this:
Since the start of 2007, the world’s biggest financial institutions have posted almost $515 billion in losses and write-downs. Eleven U.S. banks have collapsed since January 2008 (All tax payer protected).
Buffet had to step in last spring or the Gov’t Bond selling business would have ground to a halt with out huge increases in interest paid. (paid for my local taxpayers).
CDOs and SIVs are being held by a large number of banks and hedge funds. Most are protected by CDSs. If AIG fails like Bush/Paulson/Bernanke fail then the dominoes will continue and many more taxpayer backed systems and institutions will fail.
What happens when foreign investors no longer consider the USA and its business a safe investment.
Our free enterprise system is highly integrated with the flow of capital from abroad and at home.
If you want to see out recession turn into a depression – just let the dominoes continue to fall / collapse.
Instead of the Govt/taxpayer bailing a couple of bad investment banks we could soon be bailing out hundreds of regular banks.
And that's a very good analysis
kowalski (Diary) Tuesday, September 16th at 12:47PM EDT (link)It’s not crazy to suggest to people who want to take car loans and mortgages that they have to put down 20%. It’s crazy that we have tried to say it’s impossible.
We’ve given into the “everything should be free” ethos and tried to forget the consequences when people default. Well, Mitsubishi Motors tried that and they almost went out of business, and no lender in the United States should ever do it again.
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Mr irrelevent (Chevy Chase)
ILLINOIS_CONSERV (Diary) Tuesday, September 16th at 12:47PM EDT (link)Chevy Chase has commented that he liked the SNL skit about Palin but said it didn’t go far enough. He said he would like to see an encore where they “really decimate her” Typical comment from the Hollywooden heads. I guess he is a bitter man since his own career has gone down the drain. He hasn’t done anything worthwhile since he quit using drugs. If SNL is so cutting edge, like they fancy themselves to be, and willing to explore every taboo and so called “untouchable” subject, then why haven’t we seen a scathing skit about Obama? Who are they afraid of? They are very afraid of bucking hollywood’s obvious agenda of getting Obama elected. SNL used to be cutting edge. Now they, like Chase, have become an empty shell of what they once were and are both totally IRRELEVENT.
The only thing necessary for the triumph [of evil] is for good men to do nothing – Edmund Burke
I could not agree more
chemjeff (Diary) Tuesday, September 16th at 12:53PM EDT (link)This is the kind of thinking that we should all be engaged in. This is the form of regulation that I think President McCain should bring to the table next year – not to force people to put 20% down on a house, but to make it more difficult for them to do so. Is it paternalistic? You bet. But it is also the time-honored path to prosperity, which is the essence of conservatism.
What does this have to do
kowalski (Diary) Tuesday, September 16th at 1:07PM EDT (link)What does Saturday Night Live’s Palin skit have to do with the economy today? At the very best this is destined for a different thread.
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Were you paying attention last March?
Francis Cianfrocca (Diary) Tuesday, September 16th at 1:22PM EDT (link)There were a couple days back then when the interest rate on T-bill overnight repo was negative. We have a way to go before things get that messy, but we may be on the way.
Word from the Street right now is “calm before the storm.” All eyes are still on AIG, on the Fed, and on the disposition of Lehman’s assets.
LOL. That one made my day.
Francis Cianfrocca (Diary) Tuesday, September 16th at 1:27PM EDT (link)n/t
Go troll elsewhere
The_Gadfly (Diary) Tuesday, September 16th at 3:47PM EDT (link)I’m probably one of McCain’s biggest critics on this board, but I’m also one his staunches defender when people go trolling on his record. Even a cursory examination of the so called Keating 5 accusations makes clear that McCain was the sacrificial lamb the Republicans served up so they could get the Democrats who were responsible for the mess tossed by the Ethics committee, which never does anything if it can’t reprimand both sides. I’m not sure I’ll ever forgive the Republicans who offered him up for the political equivalent of 30 pieces of silver. To this day I’m convinced the genesis of his almost universally hated campaign finance reform law can be found in his unfair conviction for what would have at most gotten a warning letter if they hadn’t needed to convict some Dems. And it’s likely to lead to the same sort of misguided law with this current crisis. Instead of looking for what went wrong in the market, and how to implement a change to provide that information, assurance, liquidity or whatever it is that is wrong, McCain is once again off on a rant about undoing corruption. While I do believe there was corruption on the part of the Dems who destabilized Fannie and Freddie, to have corruption on the scale to bring down so many companies would mean corruption so rife through the markets that no one could have faith in them, and no recovery would be possible. All of the economic numbers would be bad, not just some of them.
Brilliant essay
franimal Tuesday, September 16th at 5:45PM EDT (link)It’s the conservative spenders/investers who will keep the US afloat. And the rest of the debters will be more cautious from now on. I think the gigantic loss of money will be regulation enough
There you go talking down the economy again....
MrSandman (Diary) Tuesday, September 16th at 9:35PM EDT (link)LOL
The ether clearly hasn’t worn off yet.
Look at today. All green all good right!!
“Americans can no longer trust the economic information they are getting from this Administration.”
— Republican Senator Jim DeMint
If the fed had simply sat back and done
mbecker908 (Diary) Tuesday, September 16th at 10:27PM EDT (link)nothing, the RTC “bailout” would likely have cost the taxpayers about nothing. In large measure, having lived through it, the biggest problem was not Charles Keating, it was the idiots in Washington who created the problem and then overreacted to “make it go away”.