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FRONT PAGE CONTRIBUTOR

Going Through The Front Door

Nationalizing Banks

The major news this morning affecting financial markets is that the Treasury is making a drastic change in its approach to the current crisis.

You know about the $700 billion Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP). As originally conceived, the idea here was to contrive ways of purchasing assets like mortgage-backed securities from banks and Wall Street firms.

The purchases were to have been done at an overvaluation. This would have effectively recapitalized the financial system, through the back door as it were.

This morning, however, the Treasury has announced a far more aggressive, and invasive, plan. They’ll be going through the front door.


This morning at 8:30 Eastern time, Secretary Paulson is expected to announce that some amount of the TARP’s monies, perhaps $125 billion, will be used to purchase preferred-stock in nine large banks.

The winners will now each receive a hefty slug of additional capital directly from the government. This comes at a time when the solvency of the banking system has been the biggest long-term problem facing the economy.

Bank balance sheets have been shredded by heavy losses from mortgage lending. And their attempts to raise new capital have been rendered impossible by plummeting stock prices. (If you were a typical sovereign wealth fund that has invested in equity placements by such firms as Citigroup and Bear Stearns over the past twelve months, you’ve probably been resisting further entreaties by saying “fool me twice, shame on me.”)

As I said, the original TARP approach contemplated the artificial creation of a secondary market for mortgage assets so that banks could gradually clean up their balance sheets, restore some semblance of profitability, and attract new capital from private sources.

But events rapidly overtook that plan, which was radical in itself, so radical that it threw Congress into a two-week paroxysm of indecision and partisan finger-pointing. That delay gave the simmering crisis of mid-September the opportunity to explode into a raging fire that essentially halted global capital markets, making it questionable whether companies in many industries could even continue with normal business.

There would have been no time for the original TARP plan to work, given the sudden emergence of a threat to the global economy that, in its dynamics, was not unreasonably compared to the early years of the Great Depression.

One imagines that people at the Treasury and the Fed had another come-to-Jesus moment this week, similar to the money-market crackup four weeks ago that precipitated those scary closed-door sessions in Congress.

So they decided to mainline capital directly into nine of the largest banks. According to published reports, the winners include Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, the Bank of America, Wells Fargo, State Street Corporation (of Boston), and the Bank of New York/Mellon.

This is a breathtaking step. To call it radical is hardly adequate. And financial markets will be thrilled by it. There are already some early signs that overseas credit markets are responding with reduced interbank lending rates.

It’s too early for an analysis because we have no details yet.

What we think we know so far is that Treasury (meaning you, Mr and Mrs Taxpayer) will be buying blocks of preferred stock in America’s new National Champions.

Preferred stock is non-voting stock, but has a prior claim on the earnings and assets of a company than common stock does. Neel Kashkari, the Goldman whiz-kid that Paulson tapped to run the TARP, hinted yesterday that there would be some sort of arrangement that the new Treasury capital would be supplemented with private capital.

An extravagant amount of danger is being created here, which we’ll need to analyze as details emerge.

The proximate danger is, of course, moral hazard. You could make an excellent free-market case that one, more than one, or even all of the nine big banks should have been allowed to fail, to atone for the sin of losing money.

One assumes that this problem will be addressed by cramming down the existing shareholders, whose position in the capital structure will be taken by the new preferred issues, and also by firing senior executives and capping compensation for those who are left.

The much larger danger is moral hazard from Congress and the coming Administration.

Our august representatives in Washington may decide they enjoy being the stewards of a fully-nationalized banking system. You may have thought corruption was bad with Congresspeople and Senators directing earmarks to people and companies that fund their campaigns.

You ain’t seen nothing yet. The potential for corruption and resource-misallocation with Congress in direct control of the banking system matches anything since, well, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

But that’s not Treasury’s problem now. They’re doing what they can to keep what will certainly be a tough, sharp recession from becoming much worse.

Three cheers, no holding back, for what they’ve done here.

But keep in mind that they’ve handed us a very large and difficult task. By “us,” I mean you and me, the people who decide who gets to sit in Congress and the White House.

It’s going to be up to us to demand, in every way and at every turn, that the nationalization of America’s big banks be unwound as quickly as possible after the crisis abates.

-Francis Cianfrocca

COMMENTS

  • cookcountyconservative

    I am by no means and expert in this and I still trying to wrap my head around all the details of this fiasco, but this sounds to me like another government backed nightmare down the road.

    The oversight and regulations on these banks would have to be really strong – but as usual will eventually be subject to the political winds and eventual corruption.

    If I have any stock in any of these nine banks – I think I’m just going to get as soon as their value gets back up to decent level.

  • Mr_Green

    Sorry, I know I ask you lots of questions, thanks so much for your patience, but what exactly do you mean the existing shareholders will be crammed down?

    Who will actually be running the banks? If the government only has preferred stocks will they actually have a say in what goes on or is it more about the threat of what they can do with their money?

    I’d like to think Republican or Democrat, neither would hold onto this power any longer then necessary.

    I think my greatest fear would be if this somehow brought the government a profit and they then tie us onto relying on this money to fund new programs. Is that a legitimate fear?

    • Mr_Green

      I hope that people are able to recapitalize these banks as quick as possible so the government doesnt have an excuse to stay in any longer then they need to.

      • blackhedd

        It’s too early to say what’s going to happen, so I’ll speak theoretically.

        “Crammed down” is basically a euphemism for what happens when a company adds a preferred tier to an existing capital structure. Common shareholders are subordinate to preferred shareholders, so the value of their shares falls, often precipitously. (Preferred stock is subordinate to all forms of debt, which in turn is subordinate to claims by employees and taxing authorities.)

        Preferred stock never votes, as common stock does. Generally speaking, preferred stockholders don’t get board seats.

        But keep in mind that Congress will be making the rules on this, and they can do whatever they want. Depending on whether we all keep our eyes open and make noise about it.

        Preferred stock also doesn’t usually share the residual profits of a business, which speaks to your final concern. But again, Congress can do whatever they want.

        If you thought oil-company profits could be demagogued, so can bank profits.

  • tankertodd

    I love the free market but this problem wasn’t created by the free market. It was created by government intervention that snowballed and magnified in our free market. So it’s acceptable that what government broke, government can fix. Letting too many banks fail for what were, at the core, were stupid government policies would be wrong and dangerous.

    You’re dead on that under an Obama adminstration (or even McCain one) we could definitely see government consolidate its beachhead in banking and leverage it to do more bad things. I guess that’s why having non-voting stock is a better idea, although I think a non-voting or voting seat at the Board of Directors could be a good thing given the crisis.

    Isn’t it true that George Soros himself suggested this idea (among others)? I recall reading an op-ed piece of his and dreading that I agreed.

  • kyle8

    abates, is not only selling off the nationalized assets, but we should be demanding the break up of these new large mega-banks.

    The danger of all this happening again in twenty years is a real one. We already had too much stratification in the financial industry and now that there are only a few banks and brokerage firms left the problem is even worse.

    The failure of just one of them is hell on the economy. Not to mention the lack of competition.

    I never have understood the hostility to anti-trust which has arisen in the last twenty years. If we had enforced anti-trust then AIG would never have been allowed to buy up so much leveraged paper.

    Adam Smith is still right, and oligarchy is not a good recipe for a sound economy.

  • John_E

    This may be modeled on the Chile solution which has a clear track record. In that case management and shareholders had a strong incentive to get back on the rails in order to get government out of their pockets. And key to it all is that government did get out of their business relatively quickly. The article referenced below fleshes it out.

     

    09/29/08 Lessons From Chile’s Financial Crisis

    The Bush economic team could learn from Chile’s 1982 economic collapse.

  • aaronbg

    /sarcasm off

    This is what happens when you sacrifice free markets for short term security…just like any other freedom, you lose it.

  • kingfish

    Until we get these CD swaps under control, its pointless. Need to restore the limits on leveraging, create an exchange for the CDO market and force companies to admit how much of them they own, and stop this off balance sheet stuff such as what Citi has pulled in the last couple of years, rendering balance sheets useless. Until the balance sheets are accurate, its all a joke.

    • cwilson

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      • itrytobenice

        As someone who works for community banks, it is not beneficial to banking to cause the vast majority of banks, banks which are locally owned and locally operated, to be required to compete against multi-nationals that won’t be allowed to fail by the gov’t.

        Their risk analysis just gives them an unfair advantage. They can take risks and swing for the bleachers, because they always get another shot at it. They are not allowed to lose, while community banks are.

        This dichotomy is not good for the economy, as banking is the grease that lets all the other wheels go round.

  • jphamlore

    The actions that the United States government have announced today are part of what Bush, Paulson, and Bernanke should have been proposing to the public weeks ago during the bailout debate, along with an equivalent to the HOLC.

    The (partial) nationalization of the largest banks was an action dictated by first the UK and then the rest of the major economic powers of Europe last weekend.

    The current Republican administration has let down John McCain and the country by its failure to propose the solutions that were proven to work during the Great Depression and during the Swedish banking crisis. I am going to be proudly voting for John McCain this week (absentee ballot) because John McCain showed himself to be a statesman by suspending his campaign to come to Washington to try and rally support for a plan that would save the American people from a financial disaster. Unfortunately for the American people, what John McCain could not have anticipated was the incompetence of the Bush administration to do the most basic research into what techniques are used to repair financial systems after overextension of credit with corresponding debts that cannot be paid.

    That the major banks have to be recapitalized is by now a fact that economists such as Nouriel Roubini understand, that Ben Bernanke used to understand back when he was doing his research, and that the Europeans understand since the Swedish resolution of their crisis. It is a fact that anyone with the slightest knowledge of economic history should be well familiar with. Failure to make bank recapitalization a main part of the bailout bill is shocking financial malpractice whose consequence will be a great loss of respect for United States leadership worldwide.

    Now we will pay the price for the failure of the bailout bill to also contain the modern equivalent of the HOLC, because a similar bailout for those who cannot pay their mortgages is inevitable, only this time it will be dictated by ACORN and the other Democratic allies. Had the bailout bill just contained what the HOLC achieved, restructuring of mortgages to a longer term of 40 or even 50 years with the ability to pass houses to children tax-free at any time as long as the children agreed to continue paying the mortgage, we could have avoided the Democrats bill that will require writing down principle, that will destroy the incentive for private industry to issue mortgages, that will entrench government ownership of the mortgage industry, and that will make inevitable a repeat of the current crisis with even more government takeover of key sections of the economy.

    • liberalrepublican

      “If you thought oil-company profits could be demagogued, so can bank profits.”

      First of all, thank you for your posts during this crisis. It’s nice to get a trusted insider view.

      It’s interesting you make the above comment because of an exchange we recently had.

      I said that if banks can be nationalized in an emergency, then why not energy companies?

      You seemed to suggest that was ridiculous.

      With an Obama presidency and a major energy crisis, it doesn’t seem rediculous anymore.

      Especially oncee we will get out of the current crisis, the perception will be that Socialism works.

      Slippery slope…

      • mbecker908

        If McCain loses it’s because he refused to fight to win. Period.

        • ridewind

          They are using $250B out of the approved $700B.

          I now know why the first proposal was only 3 pages. Think about it they knew the Dems control the congress and if they don’t sell it verbally such that it will target the fat mortgage machine created by the Dems congress, the money will never get approved.
          Imagine when they only said just to buy the toxic assets from the banks, the reactions were so strong, if they were to say buy into these banks directly, revolts will be far worse initially.
          But on paper, there were no words to limit the tactics chosen by Treasury. We have to understand the money which need to be injected by the US are far larger than those Europeans.

          I actually think that they knew the Dems were dead worried about these toxic assets committed by Freddie & Fannie, ACORN because they are potential time bombs for Dems.

          • Herodotus

            to big to fail usually means will fail soon. Every company that I have ever heard called “to big to fail” has failed.

  • Herodotus

    Boo, boo, and boo!!!

    • Herodotus

      often get first claim to a corporation’s profits and advantages in the case of liquidation. Moreover, some prefeered stocks are convertable for common stocks so once purchased prefeered stocks give the government easy “backdoor” access to common stock and its voting rights.

      • Herodotus

        is that the buyout is just setting the stage for a bigger problem in the future.

        • Herodotus

          One of the fundamental problems with governmental interventions in the economy is that they require near perfect, extensive, and real time information in order to be successful. Unfortunately/fortunately depending upon you perspective such information just does not exist.

          P.S. The non-voting stock bit is misleading if not effectivily false if these prefeered stocks are convertable for common stocks..

          • Herodotus

            that most of the local banks in this country have been uneffected by this so-called crisis?

          • Herodotus

            .

          • The_Gadfly

            The only proven solution to the problem of the Great Depression was WW II. I don’t think WW IV would work out well for any of us (WW III being the one Reagan won). My reading on the subject is that at best Roosevelt’s programs didn’t harm the economy, although there do seem to be a fair number of economists who argue that they did.

            Putting the fox in charge of the hen house always presents significant security challenges. There are no slier foxes than Congress, there are few hen houses bigger than the banks. Blackhedd may be right, it might be the best option in the current situation, but it’s highly risky. The cold dead hand of Adam Smith can only be put off at a significant price; and I estimate the interest rate to be on the order of 1% an hour, although he does seem to allow you to split it up between lost revenue, inflation, and job loss.

          • Herodotus

            Wow!!! I really need to use the spellcheck.