I Call BS on Obama’s Sham Fiscal-Stimulus Plan


Go here to read the latest piece of propaganda for the biggest piece of Keynesian stimulus to be proposed since the New Deal.

I and plenty of others have been telling you for days that this whole idea was a brainless, kneejerk response to a critical economic situation. There’s been no apparent analysis of the underlying assumptions, and utter disregard of the decades of experience and research indicating that Keynesian theory does not provide a perfect blueprint for increasing employment.

Now, Obama’s own economic team has proven this point far better than we in the political opposition can. They’ve produced an analysis, linked above, that is so shoddily constructed and so non-rigorous, that it can only be regarded as a marketing piece targeted at the ignorant, rather than a serious argument.

The authors of the report are Christina Romer, the designated chairperson of Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, and Jared Bernstein, senior economics adviser to Vice President-elect Biden.

Bernstein isn’t an economist at all, so forget about him. But Romer is a very serious and sophisticated economist indeed. And much of her own published research over many years refutes both the assumptions and the findings of today’s report.

I imagine Christina Romer must be hiding her face in embarrassment today at what her new boss, Barack Obama, has forced her to do. She should be ashamed of herself.

And how should Congressional Republicans react to the stimulus proposal, in the wake of this analysis? Keep reading, and I’ll tell you.

What Romer and Bernstein have done is to assume that government spending has direct and indirect effects which operate to increase GDP. The assumption (right out of orthodox Keynesianism) is that artificial demand from the government increases supply.

They also assume that transferring money to the states has an equally powerful impact on GDP, consisting again of direct and indirect effects, both by enabling states to keep spending higher and taxes lower.

The direct effects of these stimuli are clear: we assume that demand creates supply. The indirect effects, as stated in Romer and Bernstein, are that newly-employed people spend (rather than save) their income, resulting in demand growth and job gains in unrelated industries.

The report acknowledges tax cuts to be of stimulative value only if they’re permanent. So to finesse the fact that none of Obama’s proposed tax cuts are actually permanent, the authors simply assume that they are. (This is a report with weasel language in every single paragraph, so it’s saying something to note that the strongest weasel language and admissions of uncertainty are in regard to their treatment of the tax-cut effects.)

Tax cuts produce no direct stimulative effect because, the authors assert without explanation, people tend to save them rather than spend them. Of course, as I said, the report assumes that money that people receive in income tends to be spent rather than saved. This is a terrific flaw in the methodology. There’s a very strong assumption at work here, that the Obama stimulus plan will *in itself* relieve the uncertainty that is driving consumers to save rather than spend.

There’s no acknowledgment whatsoever that consumers are responding to the challenging economic environment by increasing their savings rates, and that this will continue for a long time. There’s an implicit assumption that this recession does not feature a fundamental change in the pattern of consumer demand, and this is an enormous error.

There’s another huge problem in assuming that an increase in government demand will actually result in an increase in GDP. The supply-side insight, which Bernstein has excoriated in many writings, might actually be partially correct. You don’t get increased production by increasing demand. You get it by increasing returns to capital. Without very significant and permanent cuts in marginal tax rates on business and capital, which this plan does NOT propose, the whole adventure has the potential to produce massive inflation rather than stimulus.

And the authors breeze right past this fact when they note that their estimates assume that the Fed will continue its zero-interest rate policy rather than raising rates, as is normally done (to counteract inflation!) in times of fiscal stimulus. They’re goosing their own numbers.

On to the next assumption: that an increase in GDP necessarily produces a particular decrease in the rate of unemployment. They’re assuming that a 1% increase in GDP (the stimulus amount times a 1.5 multiplier) will create 1 million jobs. They don’t show their calculations, but the back of my envelope and a standard interpretation of Okun’s Rule suggests that they’re overstating the effect by anywhere from 1.5 to 2.5. More goosing of the numbers.

And then there’s the gender and union composition of the stimulated jobs. So far, only 20% of the jobs lost in the recession have been lost by women. But 42% of the jobs expected to be created by the stimulus will go to women. Clearly this is one stimulus that will have non-neutral effects on the mixture of new jobs to be created! Either that or there’s something really wrong with the analysis. How do the authors finesse this anomaly? They lamely suggest that their calculations are probably incorrect.

But they don’t think there’s anything to apologize for in their expectation that union jobs will be overrepresented in the construction and manufacturing jobs that are expected to figure disproportionately in the outcome.

Bottom line: the Obama team is far overestimating the effect of income growth on consumption, far overestimating the effect of stimulus on GDP growth, and far overestimating the impact of GDP growth on job creation. And they’re smart people so they have to know that they’re doing this.

They’re walking way far out onto some very thin ice. This stimulus is going to have very disappointing effects. Republicans would be well advised not to block the plan, which is politically unstoppable, but in no way to support it. It should pass in Congress with no Republican votes.

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48 Comments Leave a comment

Bravo, Francis

JustLeaveMeAlone Saturday, January 10th at 6:50PM EST (link)

Thank you for your analysis — eye-opening and thorough, as usual.

I don’t know what frightens me more: the simplistic Obama economic approach, which I cannot fathom coming from anyone who has even picked up an Econ 101 textbook, or the Obama approach to national defense.

“To compel a man to subsidize with his taxes the propagation of ideas which he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.” Thomas Jefferson

 

Thank you, Francis. Highly Recommended !

Kenny Solomon Saturday, January 10th at 6:50PM EST (link)

“…… a marketing piece targeted at the ignorant, rather than a serious argument.”

Francis, you’ve said in those few words the entire modus operandi of how the next administration was elected. Cheers to you !

Since I’ve been a member here at RedState, I’ve learned beyond measure from your posts.

If any Republican even remotely supports or God forbid votes for this exercise in destroying a country, they should be literally tarred, feathered and ran up the nearest yard arm.

Of course you can have my guns……. Bullets first.
I didn’t say rounds, shells or magazines……
I said bullets first.

 

Uncertainty...

davo119 Saturday, January 10th at 6:55PM EST (link)

The word uncertainty occurs nine times in the finished report. If you don’t know what to do, the best thing is to do nothing instead of randomly acting.

Never give in! Never! Never! Never!

 

It's a feint, the stimulus is the blocking force.

Achance Saturday, January 10th at 7:03PM EST (link)

The real enemy is the “cavalry” hiding in the woods on the left. The interest groups on the Left don’t need money, they’re rolling in it. When GWB should have been cutting off every contract and grant going to them, he fed them better than ever. They’ve forever demonstrated that they don’t give a damn about the people of their constituencies. In fact, they’d rather have a bunch of misery, hate, and discontent for it’s organizational effectiveness.

What they want is their institutional changes that will give them lasting power by putting the right either out of business or at an insurmountable disadvantage. They want card check, mandatory bargaining, repeal or strong limitations on right to work laws, fairness doctrine or something like it. They’ll have all the opposition focussed on a TRILLION dollar “rescue” package, and they don’t even care if they get it; they’re planning to get a lot more later.

In Vino Veritas

And, at enormous expense to a clueless, unsuspecting public...

rbdwiggins Saturday, January 10th at 7:43PM EST (link)

The financial burden on the American taxpayer will undoubtedly be historical, but the greater damage will be done to our constitutional republic and individual liberties.

Oh, how I wish we could dismantle the Department of Education.

“Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn’t so.” – Ronald Reagan

It's your local school board and your state

Achance Saturday, January 10th at 7:50PM EST (link)

Department of Education a whole lot more than the USDOE. The USDOE sends a relatively little money to SDs, but the price of that money is that you agree to their crap.

Even if you live in a Red State, I bet your governor really doesn’t know who he/she appointed to the State Board of Regents or State Board of Education or why they were appointed other than somebody whispered in his ear that it was an ok appointment.

That’s where the battle is: control the Board of Regents, the State Board of Education, the State Superintendent of Schools, and their hearts and minds will follow.

Some of us right-wingers read Gramsci too.

In Vino Veritas

Gov. Easley specifically made like-minded appointments...

rbdwiggins Saturday, January 10th at 8:44PM EST (link)

and without the backing of the teacher’s unions, it’s virtually impossible to win a seat on the state board. I don’t remember any conservative serving at the state level, and I’ve witnessed a half-century of North Carolina politics.

North Carolina has historically been a red state as far as national elections are concerned, but for some unexplainable reason, the Democrats have controlled Raleigh for sixteen years, and we just elected another Democrat (Bev Perdue) as governor.

The majority of the local school boards basically do as they’re told, Mecklenburg and Wake County school systems are huge bureaucracies in their own right and our textbooks are approved by committee at the state level for five-year contracts.

“Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn’t so.” – Ronald Reagan

are you in Charlotte? - nt

Mike gamecock DeVine Saturday, January 10th at 8:49PM EST (link)

Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com, Charlotte Observer and The Minority Report columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” - Andrew Jackson

North on I-77, East on I-40...

rbdwiggins Saturday, January 10th at 8:54PM EST (link)

If you get to Winston-Salem, you went too far.

“Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn’t so.” – Ronald Reagan

 

Things ain't lookin' good in Charlotte tonight.

Achance Saturday, January 10th at 9:37PM EST (link)

Who’d have thought the Cardinals would show up with bad intentions?

In Vino Veritas

well, the Gamecocks beat Auburn in hoops, so I put the razor away!

Mike gamecock DeVine Saturday, January 10th at 9:44PM EST (link)

Naw, I love the Panthers, but only the Braves and Gamecocks are life and death!

Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com, Charlotte Observer and The Minority Report columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” - Andrew Jackson

 
 
 

Purdue and her numerous red dresses

nivlem Saturday, January 10th at 10:20PM EST (link)

would not have won had it not been for the “Obama change”. Neither
would Kay Hagen. Our biggest loss was in accountablity when we lost our
watchdog….I believe it was Les Merrit?
My memory is unfocused as I am watching the Panthers lose.
Not a time to focus on losses, the world is changing, we need to change our
approach……we are missing the boat because we are not focused. The
election is done.
We know what is coming down the pipe. We must address our weaknesses,
our obstacles, and readdress. We do not change who we are. We need to
meet them on their playing field…..and define ours.

 
 
 
 
 

Yes? [nt]

bs Saturday, January 10th at 7:09PM EST (link)

Decorum is fo’ suckas

lol...mystical repub leaders......

$peciallist Saturday, January 10th at 7:40PM EST (link)

I’m calling…you also…I am so sick of f’n politician liars….is there anything worse in Real life or politics than LIARS!!

This is ..you………….we keep talking about these mystical repub leaders…..WHERE ARE THEY?…..

I see ZERO…………..total …YOU!

 
 

Republicans need to use this as a teaching moment...

Jim Saturday, January 10th at 7:24PM EST (link)

Not only do the Republicans need to keep as far away as possible from this insane “stimulus” plan, they need to be educating the electorate as to why this will not work. This is going to be a textbook failure in the idea of central planning by the state, and the GOP would be well advised to noticeably and loudly return to promoting free market, limited government principles to contrast with the Democrats.

“On the free market, everyone earns according to his productive value in satisfying consumer desires. Under statist distribution, everyone earns in proportion to the amount he can plunder from the producers.”
Murray Rothbard

 

Why are you calling BS?

George Claghorn Saturday, January 10th at 7:32PM EST (link)

He’s right here.

“Victory comes, though we know not when. We must be happy warriors until the end.

For those of you who struggle with what goes on, who see retreat and capitulation, and who feel like not just your political opponents, but those who hold dear all those things you hold as blasphemous — be cheerful. Be happy. Victory is already yours.

You must just have the courage to not get discouraged and have the will to fight on.” – Erick Erickson at RightOnline

 

Republicans need to call this what it is

Jack_Savage Saturday, January 10th at 7:50PM EST (link)

It is nothing more than a basic payoff to constituencies. A quid pro quo in the name of stimulus, masquerading as aid to a floundering economy when it is in fact a whole bunch of cash filled envelopes being passed to people that helped get Barack Hussein Obama and the Democrats elected.

The ends justify the means. The report assists the means. What a complete piece of crap, and the damned ignorant fools that voted for Obama will fall for this hook line and sinker.

I never thought I would be living in an Orwell novel, yet here I am.

Funny that I just happened to read this...

Jim Saturday, January 10th at 9:21PM EST (link)

“The intelligent man, when he pays taxes, certainly does
not believe that he is making a prudent and productive
investment of his money; on the contrary, he feels that he is
being mulcted in an excessive amount for services that, in the
main, are downright inimical to him. . . . He sees in even the
most essential of them an agency for making it easier for the
exploiters constituting the government to rob him. In these
exploiters themselves he has no confidence whatever. He sees
them as purely predatory and useless. . . . They constitute a
power that stands over him constantly, ever alert for new
chances to squeeze him. If they could do so safely, they would
strip him to his hide. If they leave him anything at all, it is
simply prudentially, as a farmer leaves a hen some of her eggs.”

-H.L. Mencken

“On the free market, everyone earns according to his productive value in satisfying consumer desires. Under statist distribution, everyone earns in proportion to the amount he can plunder from the producers.”
Murray Rothbard

 
 

Congressional Republicans should vote "present" in response to this generational ripoff.

Scipio Saturday, January 10th at 7:53PM EST (link)

very good

Alberta Saturday, January 10th at 9:47PM EST (link)

nt

Sir, my concern is not whether God is on our side; my greatest concern is to be on God’s side, for God is always right.
Abraham Lincoln

 
 

Excellent!

redneck_hippie Saturday, January 10th at 8:14PM EST (link)

Spread this article far & wide, me hearties! Board the politburo ships and unbuckle your swash!

- Galleon Lootin’,Flintlock Shootin’, Freebootin’ Sal.

“We must not lose our faculty to dare, especially in dark days.” - Churchill in March, 1942.

Remember NY-23.

 

"Chariots of the Gods?" vs "Crash Go the Chariots"

bk Saturday, January 10th at 8:16PM EST (link)

Your analysis of the Obama/Romer analysis reminds me of years ago when I knew a lot of people who went gaga over Chariots of the Gods?. When I read it, it seemed like von Daniken would make an assumption, build on it as proven fact with another assumption, then act like that was a proven fact, add another assumption, etc. (Maybe this was an early example of KnownFacts?) Then a much less famous book entitled Crash Go the Chariots came out that made me realize I wasn’t the only skeptical one. Too bad more people didn’t read it….

I started to read it...

nivlem Saturday, January 10th at 10:27PM EST (link)

Lost my patience/tolerance/not sure why…just wasn’t worth continuing whenI
you already know the ending….
I thought I was the only one.
But, I love and am collecting evey sports movie every made…I love them…and I love their life lessons and “feel good” endings.
Wierd, but I love them…

 
 

Who Said

OccamsRazor Saturday, January 10th at 8:29PM EST (link)

Ever Good Musicians Cannot Be Good At Arithemtic?-Idiots Perhaps.

 

I have devil's advocate

OccamsRazor Saturday, January 10th at 8:30PM EST (link)

diagreements…but won’t refute you on this post :)

As always, Kick Butt, FC.

 

great work 'hedd - really, its not a stimulus plan - nt

Mike gamecock DeVine Saturday, January 10th at 9:17PM EST (link)

Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com, Charlotte Observer and The Minority Report columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” - Andrew Jackson

 

Kudlow should put you on his show

Alberta Saturday, January 10th at 9:53PM EST (link)

Bernsteins on sometimes you could brings these critiques up with him it would be great.

Sir, my concern is not whether God is on our side; my greatest concern is to be on God’s side, for God is always right.
Abraham Lincoln

I would love to see the 'Hedd take on Reich! - nt

Mike gamecock DeVine Saturday, January 10th at 10:00PM EST (link)

Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com, Charlotte Observer and The Minority Report columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” - Andrew Jackson

 
 

What I would do

10ksnooker Saturday, January 10th at 10:09PM EST (link)

Is not provide one vote for this “spend our way out, trillion dollar boondoggle”. And I would do it by telling people the first two tries at the emergency spending plans haven’t worked, despite being told they would.

I do believe that if you asked, could you spend your way out of credit card debt, most people would say no.

And yes, unfortunately for them, the Democrats own the budget, the first stimulus plan, the TRAP fiasco, and the huge 1.3 trillion dollar deficit for 2009. I would ram that home at every chance I got.

I would also call it what it is, a trillion dollars worth of pork.

It is a pork bill. That's what public works are. Now, we

Mike gamecock DeVine Saturday, January 10th at 10:40PM EST (link)

need some public works, but not all this.

Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com, Charlotte Observer and The Minority Report columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” - Andrew Jackson

 
 

What's really amazing about this report

Brian Simpson Saturday, January 10th at 10:46PM EST (link)

is that it appears that Romer was willing to ignore much of her own research overstating the effects of government spending.

The Minority Report | Twitter | Facebook | Digg | Politics4All | Missouri Matters | Rebuild the Party
Important principles may and must be inflexible. ~ Abraham Lincoln

Well Brian....Romer is no better than a hooker....

JadedByPolitics Saturday, January 10th at 10:52PM EST (link)

no matter what high esteem she was held in prior to this SHE has SOLD HERSELF to The Messiah!

Whoever has his enemy at his mercy &
does not destroy him is his own enemy

 
 

Hedd, a wonderful job as always...

Wubbies World Saturday, January 10th at 11:05PM EST (link)

I know this is unstoppable. However, Republicans need to run away from it as fast as they can. It is going to pass but trying to block it is also suicidal. The press backlash will be fierce because it will be blocking the wizardry of the magical one in his first hundred days of his rule. The MSM will not tolerate descent from Republicans.

Republicans need to genuflect and say “have at it”. Let no Republican put there name on it. However, we know there are still just enough squishes in the Republican Main Street Partnership who will vote for it, of course led by that “stalwart conservative” [yes its snark] John McCain.

Then pass the popcorn as it does nothing but disrupt the recovery time line that has already developed.

Red State Strike ForceWubbies World, MSgt, USAF (Retired):
Join The Red State Strike Force
><> If It’s Worth Doing, It’s Worth Doing Right The First Time.

 

Once Again: Vote for Responsible Tax Cuts & Then Against The Whole Bill

IJB Saturday, January 10th at 11:39PM EST (link)

As I said before, that’s the best political option for the GOP:

Vote for any reasonable tax cuts (they shouldn’t be on record as supporting “give outs” to non-taxpayers, but they should be on record support tax cuts that are good ideas at any time), saying they are trying to improve a “flawed” bill.

Then they should vote against the whole bill, saying that, in the end, it’s laden with too much “pork”, will not stimulate the economy sufficiently, and will disastrously increase the deficit and the national debt.

Adding some of what you say in their final statement would be a great idea.

But doing this is the best of both political worlds.

Pelosi will not allow that option, or any option that might actually stimulate the economy...

rbdwiggins Sunday, January 11th at 12:31PM EST (link)

The only viable option for Republicans is to offer an alternative economic stimulus plan that addresses the long-term ramifications of congressional action/interference, makes the Bush Tax Cuts permanent, lowers the capital gains tax rate, lowers or eliminates the corporate tax, and holds those government officials (elected and appointed) who are directly or indirectly responsible for the current financial crisis criminally accountable for their actions.

Pelosi has said the debate on the stimulus package will be closed, and the minority will not be allowed to offer amendments to the Democrat plan. The alternative plan will not make it to the floor of the House for consideration. It will be rejected on its face, and the details of the plan will have to be disseminated through the media.

From that point forward, every congressional Republican will have to point out the fallacy of the Democrat plan, and they must go on record rejecting said plan.

“Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn’t so.” – Ronald Reagan

 
 

Who was that said; Never let a good emergency go to waste?

woodsman Sunday, January 11th at 10:54AM EST (link)

Wasn’t this the new Chief of Staff for BHO? These financial dealings provide the distinct opportunity for the Lib’s to push through any garbage under the guise of being good for the country. They parse words selectively to pull on the emotions of the constituents who then avidly support the proposed plans.

Thank you for Francis for another great explanation.

 

Spending good, savings bad, aarrgh!

johnt Sunday, January 11th at 10:56AM EST (link)

So which is it? We’ve heard for years that we don’t save enough, now we shouldn’t save at all. But savings, all savings, wind up as investment which at some point convert to economic activity in a broad range encompassing both individuals and corporations.

I cringe every time I hear that in this bailout mess business is “hoarding” cash, the hell they are. Just where is this giant mattress wherein all the money is being mindlessly stuffed? Balance sheets are being supported as bad assets are written off and cash is placed in liquid, short term investments.
I wonder if Keynes ever saved money, or do our national economic advisers, the ones who will take us by the hand and guide us through tough times.

“a man’s admiration for absolute government is proportinate to the contempt he feels for those around him”. Tocqueville

Saving isn't necessarily investment

Francis Cianfrocca Sunday, January 11th at 11:15AM EST (link)

To me, “investments” are activities that seek to obtain risk-adjusted rates of return from capital, consistent with some particular objective, which usually is to fund future consumption or future liabilities (like pensions).

Strictly speaking, savings are an intertemporal substitution. They’re a deferral of consumption to some future time, where the deferral is made in response to some rational expectations about the future.

When people save more, consumption in the current period is necessarily less than it would otherwise have been, and that shows up as lower economic growth and, at the margin, higher unemployment.

But Americans have been trained for decades to think of investment (in real estate, stocks and bonds) as an effective substitute for saving. If you choose your time periods carefully, this is an easy enough case to make.

But what about now, when so many people have lost almost half of their life savings as fast as lightning?

Wouldn’t you expect that everyone who remembers 2008 will have a tendency to save more in cash or cash equivalents (like short-term government debt) and invest less in financial assets?

Saving rates are going to go up, and investment returns are going to go down (for related but different reasons) for a long time to come. A proper economic policy would recognize and deal with this reality.

I agree.

Rod_Patrick Sunday, January 11th at 11:21AM EST (link)

In his Economics book, McConnell described Reagan Economics as a form of “heavy government spending” (although very wise: infrastructure and skills development) to prime up the economy.

The danger of Savings is “nil profit” and near-zero growth.

 

But Is This Really "Savings", or "Deleveraging"?

IJB Sunday, January 11th at 1:24PM EST (link)

The impression I get with what’s really going on is that average consumers are spooked, and are increasing their “savings rate” with the actual goal of paying down personal debt.

Of course, that too will lead to lower growth, but is what we’re seeing really “savings” or “debt elimination”?

(I guess, either way, it doesn’t matter - the end result will still be 2-5 years of lower growth…)

 

Savings, a minor caveat.

johnt Sunday, January 11th at 1:40PM EST (link)

If we may, or are to, restrict savings to that of individuals or families and hold to the usual or traditional concept that is applicable to them, then we ought not to neglect the intermediary institutions that convert those funds, whatever the temporal considerations, into investments properly understood,

I do hold a broader idea of savings, under current conditions especially, note my comment on “hoarding”, a perfectly sensible strategy despite the ignorant description used, and in any case a practice integral to a well managed corporation.

Again, a minor point and not meant to be disputatious.

“a man’s admiration for absolute government is proportinate to the contempt he feels for those around him”. Tocqueville

Publicly-owned businesses will always have less freedom in this regard

Francis Cianfrocca Sunday, January 11th at 4:14PM EST (link)

In times of growth and relatively low interest rates, companies that run minimal leverage tend to underperform. And they usually get rewarded for their conservatism by getting bought out by private-quity firms and their managements get replaced. It’s no longer easy to run a business in a financially conservative way if you have public shareholders.

In bad times like now, the companies that survive are the ones that can continue access capital at relatively low rates. There’s also going to be a bias in favor of privately-owned companies, and businesses that are less capital-intensive. Those trends will drive several very interesting transformations in industry that won’t become clear until they’re already nearly done.

 
 
 
 

One person's savings is another person's

longwalker Sunday, January 11th at 1:00PM EST (link)

investment capital. Unless you bury your spare cash (savings) in a coffee can in the backyard, you are creating investment capital when you save. The money that you put into a savings account or other means of financial storage is lent to others. These other people take your savings and put that money to work. Of course some people will borrow to consume but eventuallly that money willl wind up being invested. Don’t read McConnel, read Smith, Ricardo, Say and Bastiat.

Do not classify the words or deeds of your opponents as being hatefull, malicious or criminal in nature if they can also be easily characterized as simple ignorance or gross stupidity. Anon.

There's a very big problem with your statement

Francis Cianfrocca Sunday, January 11th at 4:18PM EST (link)

It’s completely inoperative when there are no investment opportunities that anyone is interested in taking. The financial system has an extraordinary amount of reserve capital (aka savings) right now, hundreds of percentage points higher than the norms of recent decades.

If a banker can pay you 200 basis points on your time deposits, and then turn around and park the money in Aaa corporate bonds at LIBOR+800, what do you think he’s going to do?

That capital isn’t going anywhere because no one wants to take any risk. And it’s going to stay locked up where it is for a while.

What of the small businesses that can't get loans even now, as Jaded pointed out

Mike gamecock DeVine Sunday, January 11th at 4:58PM EST (link)

as the banks hoard the caital from the bailout?

Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com, Charlotte Observer and The Minority Report columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” - Andrew Jackson

See below.

mbecker908 Sunday, January 11th at 5:09PM EST (link)

Until the regulatory heat falls off there will be no “loosening” of capital.

We went through this after the S&L thing 20 years ago here in the SW. Banks are always the most conservative source of capital. After the S&L, they went from loaning you all the money you could prove you didn’t really need to loaning about half the money you could prove you didn’t really need.

On the business side only a small part of the problem is banks. The bigger problem is that there is virtually no “private money” available either. At least in any significant quantities. If you have great cash flow I can get you a million dollars in four days. It’ll cost you about eight points and 18% interest for two years and can be extended for another two years for an additional five points. But you’ve got to have great - GREAT - cash flow and a strong balance sheet.

If you want 50 million, tough. Without regard to your financial statement.

CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.

really, I don't blame the banks for being cautious at this point - nt

Mike gamecock DeVine Sunday, January 11th at 5:29PM EST (link)

Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com, Charlotte Observer and The Minority Report columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” - Andrew Jackson

 
 
 
 

What Francis said, plus

mbecker908 Sunday, January 11th at 4:25PM EST (link)

there is significant PERSONAL RISK in approving higher yield loans. In the current market if a portion of your portfolio goes south you will be unemployed. If the number is big enough you’ll be dealing with regulators. Bottom line, I can make an excellent fixed return with absolutely no personal or corporate risk or I can make an extra two or three hundred basis points with my neck on the line. No thought required.

CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.

 
 

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