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Stock Market Strategy From Some Politician

Ok, this one floored me. Some elected official with a funny name, “Obama” or something like that, just called a stock market bottom.

Forget about he’s one of maybe a million nimrods trying to do the same thing, for the same reason: valuation. Apparently this clown was over in London talking to some other politician, I think he’s named after a color or something, or maybe the other clown came over here or something, and he says, get this, he says that “Profit and Earnings ratios” have now come down to an attractive level for stock market investors that take a “long-term perspective.”

Forget politician, this guy sounds like some snot-nosed weenie that just got his MBA and passed his Series 7 and got a job selling stock in some retail Merrill Lynch office in Jersey or someplace. (Do they even have those anymore?) “Take a long-term perspective” means “yer gonna lose money on this puppy.”

So what’s the profit and earnings ratio this guy’s talking about? It can’t ever be anything but one, can it? Because aren’t profits and earnings basically the same thing? You divide something by itself, you get one, right? Unless it’s a freakin’ mortgage or something. I mean I can see talking about the price to earnings ratio. But that’s no good either because most of the quants I know are talking about another hundred points down on the S&P.

But who listens to politicians? I mean if Bernanke or Geithner or God or someone like that got up and started talking about the stock market, I’d listen. I mean, what they do might actually make a difference. But they’re too smart for that anyway, they know we’ll overreact.

Remember when Greenspan would go up to Congress, and people would buy or sell based on how thick his briefcase was? I mean forget about it, if the guy had a three-decker brisket-liver-’n-onions from the Second Avenue Deli instead of a baloney sammidge in there, the stock market’d go up.

But some politician? Who cares what he thinks?

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COMMENTS

  • Scope

    It had to do with how the Indicators are managed or something. Can you please explain what the differences are?

    • Francis Cianfrocca

      The S&P 500 index is a cap-weighted index that’s the most useful proxy for the stock market as a whole. The Dow Jones Industrials average is the popular favorite, but the S&P is the index that the professionals usually follow.

      There’s also an S&P 100 index, but that’s mostly for trading options against.

      • redneck_hippie

        presents preferred proxy is that there are only 30 companies in the Dow and like Francis says, the 500 are capitalization weighted.

        It will be interesting to see which company is the first to be dropped from the Dow due to bankruptcy.

        • Francis Cianfrocca

          And you can hedge it by selling S&P futures, and stuff like that.

          AIG was kicked out of the DJIA the day after the Fed took them over, so that’s the first one. I’d be watching C, BAC, and GM. GE won’t get booted out.

    • Old_Crow

      Financial component of the S&P has been hit hard (C, BAC). Risk remains due to a general lack of confidence, possibility of an European/Eastern European banking contagion, unknown unknowns, etc.

      Energy sector of the S&P still has a way to fall and would most likely have to play a part if we are going down to 500. Obama’s policies are hostile (in general) to the mature energy sector so we could see some drop.

      60/40 Bearish for me.

  • Tbone

    The fact that they are all flaming idiots who should at least be sterilized if not ground into fertilizer is, evidently, beside the point.

    Now, if only 20% of his followers were to invest $100.00 each in a new, preferred share of GM stock, GM would have enough new cash to last it how many days? I’m not good at math.

    • citizenfx

      I watch the S&P futures for a living. I have been following the correlation of the S&P and BO rise through the primaries until now.

      If any of you recall the old Paine Webber commercial that said, “When Paine Webber talks, People listen”

      “Well when Barrack Obama speaks, Stocks drop. ”

      I’ve never seen futures begin to tank as much as when BO steps up to the microphone. The market has always gotten this guy as an Anti-Capitalist wealth destroyer. I believe Geithner refused to save Lehman in anticipation of a CDS collapse which inevitably handed the Presidency to BO. If you recall Geithner was in charge of the New York Fed and was directly in charge of determining the failure of Lehman. This entire Stock Market crash is brought to you by BO and Tax cheat in Chief!

      • 6eorge Jetson

        Instead of shorting S&P futures just before Barack speaks, you’re going to have to short the S&P futures before the announcement that Barack is going to speak.

        • 6eorge Jetson
        • JustLeaveMeAlone

          it’s easy to know when to short.

          “Another day, another trillion dollars in the hole.” BHObama

      • MikeO

        E.F. Hutton

  • http://brockwayfamily.spaces.live.com/ Erick Brockway

    the one of whom you speak decided to talk UP the stock market by arbitrarily declaring;
    “Thou Stock Market, art now at thy bottom. You will swing upwards immediately, lest we be displeased.”
    It’s rumored something else was said, along the lines of;
    “Consumer confidence wilst now improve, lest the beatings commence forthwith.”

  • dnight

    Funny you should mention the briefcase thing – I’m reading about that in Greenspan’s memoir right now…

  • zsmvf6
  • redneck_hippie

    Must be that same pol who called the Chamber of Commerce, the chamber of business.

    Nimrod.

    • mom2oneson

      nt

      • mbecker908

        he has no clue what he meant to say.

      • Old_Crow

        The very definition of empty suit.

        • olsmithie

          I’d love to hijack that data stream, The Obamanation would be 5 minutes into an episode of Rush before he realized what he was saying….

          Regards

    • JustLeaveMeAlone

      Seems he woke up for about 2 seconds, long enough to hear someone say that P/E ratios were an important indicator of value.

      Then he slept through what P/E stood for, but hey, he drops that line at cocktail parties and chicks think he’s a financial guru.

  • 6eorge Jetson

    Aw, shucks. Mr Kotter answered it in the article.

    • 6eorge Jetson

      No, this is not a duplicate comment

      • 6eorge Jetson

        Nothing to see here

  • mbecker908

    in a long line at the Pearly Gates. He’s not a happy former President, he shouldn’t have to stand in line. He hasn’t stood in a line in a zillion years. And then, to top it all off, he’s in line with the unwashed masses.

    He’s been in line way beyond forever when this young looking guy in a snazzy suit comes bouncing up the line shaking hands with people like our former President did when HE “worked the line” at political events. The guy is just insufferable and he walks up to St. Peter and high-fives him and just walks through the gate. The fP is furious. He elbows the masses out of the way, sticks his finger in front of Pete’s nose and says “Do you know who I am? What’s that two bit politician doing getting in in front of ME?” Pete smiles and says, “Oh HIM? That was God. Sometimes when heaven is boring He likes to go down a play “politician”.

  • Common_Cents

    and the hubris of his “propeller head nerds” is truly disgusting, thinking they can micromanage the ENTIRE economy.

    Geithner and Orszag are acting like its the revenge of the nerds.

    I hate that they have to learn their ECON101 lesson they missed, while out experimenting with drugs, at the expense of hard working Americans.

    • mom2oneson

      I was in a waiting room and CNN was on and I could not believe it. It’s like a real life SNL skit except it’s not funny. :(

  • JustLeaveMeAlone

    He’s living proof that a little knowledge is a very dangerous thing.

  • Tbone

    Teleprompter”

  • Vladimir

    …to be a mid-level manager at your average corporation.

    Want to see the market show some life? How about a cap gains tax holiday?

    • olsmithie

      Apologies to those who run a well organized daycare.
      Don’t forget to play Rush to the kids at lunchtime…

      REgards

      • mom2oneson

        He would have them in the snow without jackets!!!!

  • Darin_H

    what happens to the price (and subsequent P/E ratio – the real one) when earnings fall off a cliff?

  • olsmithie

    Bernanke hasn’t shown me anything, and Geitner is a documented liar, guess that only leaves one reputable source. I’m not sure he is going to share his stock insight with us.

    REgards