Bond Market Epic Fail


Tim Geithner went to market today to sell 30-year bonds, and he got plastered. The interest rate shot up past 4.28%, and it pulled up the rest of the right side of the yield curve. The auction went unexpectedly bad as there were relatively fewer bids than in the past.

Before you rush to say it, no, the Chinese weren’t in there buying. But that part is NOT a surprise, because foreigners and central banks generally stick to buying short-dated securities. China stopped buying our long bonds back in 2007.

One of my colleagues reminded me that Britain and Germany had serious failures to sell debt earlier this year. The US Treasury borrows in its own currency, so they have nothing like the constraints that the Germans or the Brits do. At least in theory, the Treasury could borrow at any interest rate necessary to clear the market, because they can print money to pay the interest.

The problem is that if the risk-free rate is extremely high in any particular stretch of the yield curve, it necessarily raises the corresponding interest rates for actual business borrowing, possibly to the point of choking off actual business investment.

But it’s funny, because this whole conversation is the kind you’d have in normal times. These aren’t normal times. Bank credit is exceptionally scarce at any price, for more than one reason. Geithner is already using coded language that suggests to me that he finds this ultimately acceptable, so long as government entities can create credit themselves.

And at the end of the day, it truly is frictionless for the government to create credit. But the problem is that there will be very few organic market signals for allocating it, which is a fancy way of saying that the economy won’t be producing things people actually want to buy.

If nothing changes, then ten years from now, Americans will be telling each other Euro-style things like “I work to live, man, I don’t live to work,” and “as long as I have what I need and my retirement is guaranteed, I don’t really need anything more.”

And Obama will get credit for making America a kinder, gentler place. It’ll be really boring, though.


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Boring...hmmm...

Aaron Gardner (Diary) Thursday, May 7th at 4:54PM EST (link)

If we could get the boring part without the kinder gentler America and all the slacks being comfortable in the serfdom…I would say cool.

But since those seem inseparable at this time….I’ll pass.

conform and celebrate diversity….or else!!!

“We’d be much better off if We The People had desired small government enough to keep it.” acat


 

I don't understand this post.

AskMeLater (Diary) Thursday, May 7th at 5:06PM EST (link)

Are you saying that the government can get something for nothing? With that something from nothing provide what Americans need, like a retirement? That in the end. If things don’t change. Obama will get credit for a more docile and content American public?

The position being taken is not to be mistaken
For attempted education or righteous accusation
Only a description just an observation of the pitiful
Condition of our degeneration

Yes, keep believing your nanny state utopia is just around the corner. nt

Vegas_Rick (Diary) Thursday, May 7th at 5:20PM EST (link)

“God is great, beer is good and people are crazy.”- Billy Currington

“Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful people with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent. The slogan ‘press on’ has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race.” Calvin Coolidge.

 

I just want docile and content little slugs to do

Achance (Diary) Thursday, May 7th at 5:39PM EST (link)

the crap work at my rapacious, capitalistic sweat shop. You volunteering?

In Vino Veritas

Docile & content slugs are hard to find now

izoneguy (Diary) Thursday, May 7th at 6:00PM EST (link)

I fired all of my slugs in 2001 – right before 9-11….
Stoke of luck because my business went south after that.
The eighties were great and up until about 1998 I never had
problems with employees…..
Maybe it was the change of centuries????
Anyway most of my formers are in LA yukking it up with all the other lefties.

The point cannot be made often enough: Modern liberalism, as embodied in the Obama presidency, is the defender of the status quo. And the status quo is a road to economic ruin. Political forces cannot redistribute the wealth that the economic system does not produce.

 
 

Even France muddles along

6eorge Jetson (Diary) Thursday, May 7th at 6:32PM EST (link)

To keep the numbers easy, say you make $100K. Has US GDP tracked France’s GDP over the past 30 years, on average you’d be making $75K. But your company couldn’t fire you, and so you could just slack along at $75K.
Would you make that trade?

In response to the wondering about “something for nothing”, the US Govt has the power to tax you explicitly (e.g. income or estate taxes), or implicitly (grant itself more money, or a greater share of the real claims on (mostly) US assets.

The former (explicit) tax is hard to avoid. You can either leave the country, make less total income, or engage in some fancy tax protection footwork. The latter (share dilution) tax can be avoided with a mere phone call. “Broker, buy Euros (or gold, etc) for dollars.” Wealth stored in non-dollar form. Done.

The US benefits from the world viewing the dollar as the foremost currency to store wealth. But if foreigners see that they’re about to get screwed through the dilution of their shares/dollars, you’ll here them scream “Gangway! I’m outta here!”

 

Very simply...

fmaidment (Diary) Thursday, May 7th at 7:53PM EST (link)

He’s saying that the government can print as much money as it needs to do whatever it wants. However, that is pretty much what Germany did in the 1920s, resulting in 100,000% yearly inflation rates (imagine paying $3,000,000 for a loaf of bread). Argentina did it in the 1950s and suffered similarly.

When a government just prints money in this manner, it causes massed inflation, which results in the need to print more money so that it can afford its spending programs. It’s becomes a cycle of print-devalue-print-devalue… It takes decades (and often a complete replacement of the currency) to fix.

Meanwhile, the government is borrowing as much money as it can, restricting the supply of credit. So the government spends, businesses falter, and the whole economy grinds to a halt as the sands of socialism gum up the capitalist grease.

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“I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it.”
– - Thomas Jefferson, to Archibald Stuart, 1791

 

obama went to the market today

bobojake (Diary) Thursday, May 7th at 8:00PM EST (link)

and the market said obama your economic plan ain’t worth the paper it was written on. PERIOD

 

Understand imaginary money

GreyCloak (Diary) Friday, May 8th at 6:02AM EST (link)

Francis gets it right, as usual, but misses ancient (like, thirty years ago) history,

Congress is ecstatic to borrow money in the short-term market at 1 or 2% … long-term rates have been down near 3%. Because interest (read__”minimum payment”) is cheap for $trillions in borrowing.

At 1%, the gummint can “borrow” a trillion dollars for only $10 billion per year in “deficit.” That is the short-term market … rates for 3-month to 2-year Treasury notes.

What happened before (Carter-Reagan) is that 30-year bonds yielded as much as 14% ($140 billion cost each year for a $trillion in debt … in 1981-82 dollars!) We only recently returned to selling 30-year bonds.

When you see a headline “Fed buys $6.95 billion in Treasuries, money is being created from nowhere … and separately, the Treasury prints even more.

Buy a wheelbarrow … you’ll need it soon enough for your next trip to Walmart.

Understand: There is no money in the Treasury. It has all been spent.

 
 

You're WAY too optimistic!

ExposeDemLiars (Diary) Thursday, May 7th at 5:36PM EST (link)

“”If nothing changes, then ten years from now, Americans will be telling each other Euro-style things like “I work to live, man, I don’t live to work,” and “as long as I have what I need and my retirement is guaranteed, I don’t really need anything more.””"

If that’s all there was to it, oh well. What’s great about capitalism is that people can decide how much work they want to do vs how much financial rewards they get.

Unfortunately, where this is really taking us is into a Mexican style economy. Natural resourcewise, Mexico is one of the richest countries in the world. Problem is that the rich have it all and the rest of the people are dirt poor.

To pay for this debt we are not going to have any choice but to sky rocket inflation. What that does is take eveything that the average person worked all their lfe for and turn it into worthless paper. Sure it hits the rich too, but that just means instead of Gates and Buffet having 70 Bilion, they may only have 5 billion. Either way, they are still rich. Remember, 90% of the billionaires in the US are democrats, or democrat supporters.

I think you confused sarcasm for optimism there...nt

Aaron Gardner (Diary) Thursday, May 7th at 5:44PM EST (link)

conform and celebrate diversity….or else!!!

“We’d be much better off if We The People had desired small government enough to keep it.” acat


 
 

Not entirely unexpected

Marcus_Traianus (Diary) Thursday, May 7th at 6:25PM EST (link)

We were already under water prior to the auction and given its size and some people interpretating a “bottom” with the jobs report, the expectation was yields would rise. Overall, I thought the bid/ask was pretty normal in the end. Although I was somewhat surprised at the 10 year yield increase.

I will wait for the next auction for final judgment- that’s where the rubber will really meet the road.

“Both of our political parties, at least the honest portion of them, agree conscientiously in the same object—the public good; but they differ essentially in what they deem the means of promoting that good. One side believes it best done by one composition of the governing powers; the other, by a different one. One fears most the ignorance of the people; the other, the selfishness of rulers independent of them. Which is right, time and experience will prove.”.Thomas Jefferson

 

Euro-style things..

warkarma Thursday, May 7th at 6:33PM EST (link)

“I work to live, I don’t live to work”

We should all be so lucky to be able to say as well and actually do this. To date, I’ve yet to meet a single person who wishes he spent more time working than enjoying life.

If this is a Euro-style thing, then the Europeans have this nailed.

I support a Mitt Romney / Tim Pawlenty ticket in 2012.

Meanwhile, in reality...

fmaidment (Diary) Thursday, May 7th at 7:59PM EST (link)

…Europe’s economy never grew at the rates we experienced in the ’90s.

European standards of living in Western Europe have (long-term) been dropping in comparison to the rest of the world. Eastern Europe (except for the last six months) have been increasing.

“I work to live, I don’t live to work” is a throw-away statement. It is meaningless. Work is irrelevant if it’s not productive. America is the most productive society on Earth. We work more hours, but we also represent 1/4 to 1/3 of the world’s economy. The poorest in this country have standards of living that far and away exceed the “average” of most nations and the “best” of many.

Quite frankly, if my taxes weren’t so freakin’ high, I could make this statement, too!

Follow Me on Twitter

“I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it.”
– - Thomas Jefferson, to Archibald Stuart, 1791

 

Welcome back nemesis Warkarma, now move to Europe-nt

DONTREADONME (Diary) Thursday, May 7th at 8:30PM EST (link)
 

Euro-style things..

warkarma Thursday, May 7th at 6:33PM EST (link)

“I work to live, I don’t live to work”

We should all be so lucky to be able to say as well and actually do this. To date, I’ve yet to meet a single person who wishes he spent more time working than enjoying life.

If this is a Euro-style thing, then the Europeans have this nailed.

I support a Mitt Romney / Tim Pawlenty ticket in 2012.

 

Isn't this the first step towards runaway inflation?

Flagstaff (Diary) Thursday, May 7th at 6:51PM EST (link)

It’s just crawling now, but how long does it take to get up to speed?

“The press is so powerful in its image-making role that it can make a criminal look like he’s the victim and make the victim look like he’s the criminal. If you aren’t careful, the newspapers will have you hating the people who are being oppressed and loving the people who are doing the oppressing.”– Malcolm X, Audubon Ballroom, December 13, 1964

Yes it is - how long before it ramps up??

izoneguy (Diary) Thursday, May 7th at 7:03PM EST (link)

It all depends on how much Barry & his thugs muck around. My guess is they will try to keep it in check until Nov. 5th 2010…..

No one knows for sure but I would say other world events will make inflation look like a very small problem. Looks like plenty of peanut butter sandwiches are on the menu.

The point cannot be made often enough: Modern liberalism, as embodied in the Obama presidency, is the defender of the status quo. And the status quo is a road to economic ruin. Political forces cannot redistribute the wealth that the economic system does not produce.

Excessive inflation is an overwhelming problem for

Flagstaff (Diary) Thursday, May 7th at 7:29PM EST (link)

anybody retired and dependent on financial assets for life’s necessities. Tack on high taxes and it can be very bad.

Those other world events are not small potatoes, either, but right now only inflation seems to be a sure thing.

“The press is so powerful in its image-making role that it can make a criminal look like he’s the victim and make the victim look like he’s the criminal. If you aren’t careful, the newspapers will have you hating the people who are being oppressed and loving the people who are doing the oppressing.”– Malcolm X, Audubon Ballroom, December 13, 1964

Right now only inflation seems to be a sure thing.

izoneguy (Diary) Thursday, May 7th at 7:38PM EST (link)

I agree, my parents are retired. My father had the foresight to pull everything out of the market before it crashed. They are living day to day with some major health issues. If cap & trade gets piled in on top of the coming inflation I don’t know what is going to happen. The democrats are rushing headlong into a meltdown of their own making. Riots will not be far behind. The dems will be wishing for the good old days of tea-parties.

The point cannot be made often enough: Modern liberalism, as embodied in the Obama presidency, is the defender of the status quo. And the status quo is a road to economic ruin. Political forces cannot redistribute the wealth that the economic system does not produce.

 
 

Government cannot prevent inflation with mucking around

Mike gamecock DeVine (Diary) Thursday, May 7th at 7:35PM EST (link)

It is quite unpredictable in its timing, and with the global economy, less certain at all, but

given the magnitude of the recent printings and the near certainty that econ growth will not be large enough to depress it, the ONLY chance that we don’t get it is if

a) we have a depression for 5 years
not good

or b) a new technology arrives that makes us much more productive

Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com, Charlotte Observer and The Minority Report columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew Jackson

Given that the Green Technology...

skorrent1 (Diary) Friday, May 8th at 9:49AM EST (link)

That is being pushed will make us much LESS productive, my bet is on a). But, I don’t see how that avoids stagflation or a subsequent inflation.

 

About that "new technology"...

Flagstaff (Diary) Friday, May 8th at 12:06PM EST (link)

I was just hearing about the mistakes of the Japanese government in the 1990′s. They decided to put all their marbles behind large mainframe computer technology, so they took NO part in the personal/small business/laptop computer boom during that decade. The Clinton government would have liked to go along, but because we had a much less controlled economy then than did the Japanese, we couldn’t follow them off the cliff. Most private industry recognized, via free market capitalism, that small computers were the growth area, and we were better off for it. Not because they knew what was ahead, but because they made decisions based on what they thought would be good for their own business success. Those decisions are the bedrock of a capitalist economy.

The computer/internet/technology boom of the 90′s was the only thing that saved Clinton’s bacon–without it he would have been right–we’d have had “deficits as far as the eye can see.” Instead, within a few years, he was able to claim (inaccurately, but he was close) that we had a surplus.

We have no way of knowing what the next technology breakthrough area will be, or even if there will be one soon, but we do know there’s no guarantee that “greeen” technology will be it. It’s a very safe bet that if the government directs all its resources in one direction it will be the wrong direction.

The level of government spending overall has reached record highs (I don’t have the exact figures) as a result of the latest budget, the porkulus, and TARP. We no longer have a surplus of economic capacity to fall back on. The only way for us to avoid high inflation and stagflation is to reverse much of the porkulus and cancel any entitlement programs created by Obama (and some from W, too), while reducing tax rates to the initial Reagan schedule and reducing business tax rates, too. Additions to the ranks of government workers must also stop–layoffs wouldn’t hurt.

We can’t behave as if there will be another tech boom/bubble to bail Obama out of his mess, but that is apparently what he is counting on.

“The press is so powerful in its image-making role that it can make a criminal look like he’s the victim and make the victim look like he’s the criminal. If you aren’t careful, the newspapers will have you hating the people who are being oppressed and loving the people who are doing the oppressing.”– Malcolm X, Audubon Ballroom, December 13, 1964

amen - nt

Mike gamecock DeVine (Diary) Friday, May 8th at 1:14PM EST (link)

Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com, Charlotte Observer and The Minority Report columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew Jackson

I heard today that government and health care

Flagstaff (Diary) Sunday, May 10th at 2:39AM EST (link)

were the only two economic sectors that had expanded employment this year. I wonder why? (x;^)

“The press is so powerful in its image-making role that it can make a criminal look like he’s the victim and make the victim look like he’s the criminal. If you aren’t careful, the newspapers will have you hating the people who are being oppressed and loving the people who are doing the oppressing.”– Malcolm X, Audubon Ballroom, December 13, 1964

 
 
 
 
 
 

Thank obama, schummmmmmer, dodd, frank reid, peloski,and

bobojake (Diary) Thursday, May 7th at 7:17PM EST (link)

kerry, kenndy for the destruction of the economy of the United States. obama GREAT PLAN he talk about in his campaign must be working. Call a democrat today and thank them for the HOUSING-BANKING-ACORN scandal that has raped the hardworking middle class taxpayers.
Why do democrats hate hardworking middle class taxpayers??????
A thugacy is a thugacy is a thugacy

 

Has the "risk-free" rate on US Govt debt ever been so risky?

6eorge Jetson (Diary) Thursday, May 7th at 11:06PM EST (link)

Yeah, I know that “risk free” refers to a certain dollar-denomiated return, but I’m sure there are some dismal science jokes in there somewhere.