This one is odd, and it has a few moving parts I haven’t figured out yet, but you still need to know about it.
In case you hear the Administration start bragging about a sudden reduction in this year’s deficit by about $175 billion, here’s what they’re talking about: they’re going to reduce the amount of the TARP outlays by that much.
No, that doesn’t mean they spent less than $700 billion. (Well, actually, a bit less than $600 billion has been spent so far, but they’ll spend the rest and may need more later.)
It means they won’t add the whole amount to what they say the deficit is.
How are they going to get away with that? By accounting for the TARP outlays on a net present value basis rather than as cash outlays. Think about it like this: the stimulus/porkulus funds are different from TARP. The government either borrows or prints money, and then hands it out to state governors to spend on salaries for unionized teachers, bureaucrats, and hospital administrators, and for things like the John Murtha Airport, bike paths to nowhere, and hamster subsidies for Nancy Pelosi.
Those are pure cash outlays. From our point of view as taxpayers, it’s pure waste, money flushed down the toilet.
But the TARP funds are, and always have been, different. Approximately $17 billion of the TARP was used to buy Christmas presents and holiday bonuses for unionized employees of GM and Chrysler (that money was wasted). The rest was used mostly to buy preferred stock (and in Citigroup’s case, common stock) in something like 200 banks and non-bank financial institutions.
As I’ve said from the beginning, these TARP outlays don’t represent a simple expenditure of cash. In theory, at least, they give the government (meaning, ultimately, we the taxpayers) a coupon-payment stream, plus some claim on the assets of the assisted banks.
In short, we should be getting back the money we put into TARP. It’s more of an investment than an expenditure. (Well, actually we should be getting back some fraction of the money, since it wasn’t a very good investment.)
Now the Administration’s budget people are looking at it that way too. They’ve decided to apply some kind of a present-value calculation to the shares that TARP purchased. And they’re going to tell you that the amount of the TARP outlay was less than it actually was by that amount, roughly $175 billion according to news reports.
Now there are obvious PR benefits to this. Obama loudly promises to cut the budget deficit in half by five years from now. He wants you to get the impression that he means he’ll cut it in half by what it was before he came to office, and certainly the news media do nothing to dispel that impression. In reality, he hopes to cut the deficit in half from his own first budget.
But Obama’s very first budget will be in deficit by at least four times as much as the previous record-high deficit in nominal dollars, and at 13% it will be the highest deficit as a proportion of GDP ever in peacetime. If he does reduce the deficit in half in five years, it’ll still be more than twice as high as the previous record.
It’s no joke that Obama would like to see his upturned nose on our currency someday, given how much of it he’s printing.
So to account creatively for the TARP expenditure will reduce his first budget deficit by about 10%.
But is it real? Government accounting is very different from the ordinary accrual accounting that large businesses use. It’s often said that the government keeps its books as if it were a candy store.
But that actually makes a lot of sense when you consider that the government has no use for retained earnings, as a business does. The government prints its own money, and every dollar that it spends simply “appears” in the commercial bank accounts that the Treasury keeps for this purpose. In a mechanical sense, the TARP outlays were accomplished simply by changing numbers in a few computer files.
If you’re a business and you have money left over at the end of the year, you pay taxes on it, and then you save or invest what’s left. If the government has money left over, it simply vanishes from the economy. It makes the most sense for the government to keep its books on a yearly cash basis.
So for them to say that TARP paid nearly $700 billion for securities with some kind of a stable long-term value, and then declare that those securities are now worth $175 billion, they would have to set up a separate capital account for those holdings. (The Federal Reserve, which does maintain a balance sheet, did something roughly similar with “Maiden Lane,” the vehicle that holds the assets taken out of Bear Stearns.)
But you have to match a credit in a capital account with an equal outlay somewhere else. I think they’re playing a game when they say that the deficit was reduced by $175 billion. There has to be an economic impact from the creation of that $175 billion, and someone has to reflect the $175 billion as a liability. If not the Treasury, then who?
You see how phony it is? The traditional way of doing it would be to consider the whole $700 billion TARP plan as a cash outlay (which is what they originally did). And then, as cash flows are realized from the assets that TARP purchased, those cash flows would be treated as cash revenue, offsetting future deficits.
Something tells me, given the “transparency” which is the great stated virtue of the Obama administration, that they’re going to try to have it both ways. They’ll reduce the stated deficit by $175 billion now, and they’ll reduce it again in the future as the TARP assets produce cash. Heads they win, tails we lose.

Meanwhile, here's what Obama was saying less than three months ago
bk Wednesday, May 13th at 8:04AM EDT (link)http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0209/19184.html
Thanks Blackhedd. This helps clarify things.
Brian Hibbert Wednesday, May 13th at 9:33AM EDT (link)Now when I hear Obama supporters claim to have cut the budget, I can honestly claim that it was only due to an accounting change and that there was not change in expenditures.
Socialism doesn’t work. It looks nice on paper, but it’s been tried and it’s failed miserably every time (usually accompanied by widespread death and suffering).
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As Francis states, Obama will accomplish cutting the deficit by 50%
6eorge Jetson Wednesday, May 13th at 1:55PM EDT (link)by first raising it to 400% of its prior level.
How does this compare ...
skorrent1 Wednesday, May 13th at 9:36AM EDT (link)With the treatment of monies in the so-called “trust funds”? Revenue comes in to these “trust funds” and is promptly slushed over to Treasury and spent like any other money. It is replaced with notes saying the government “owes” so much money to the fund, but those notes are not added to the calculated “deficit”.
So, when government spending acquires an asset, that asset can offset a deficit, but when government spending incurs an obligation, that doesn’t add to the deficit. You’re right, heads they win, tails we lose.
You're kidding, right?
Francis Cianfrocca Wednesday, May 13th at 10:56AM EDT (link)To speak of “trust funds” for Social Security and Medicare is a brazen lie. There’s no such thing and there never has been. And that goes double for blatant fabrications like Al Gore’s “lockbox.”
The only way the government gets away with this mendacity is because people persist in fooling themselves with the pleasant fantasy that Social Security is somehow an “insurance policy,” and that SS payouts are simply a return of money that people have already paid in. Nothing could be farther from the truth.
The government has no way to save money past the end of each year. That’s what the private sector does. If the government were to actually save money, that would create positive evil. Either they would store it in savings accounts, which would be directly deflationary. Or they would use it to invest in private assets, which would expose the whole economy to corruption and political manipulation.
well, technically they could...
kyle8 Wednesday, May 13th at 11:01AM EDT (link)buy gold and horde it.
But I suppose that would still disrupt some markets.
You are absolutely correct there is no such thing as any trust fund, never has been.
Eventually all of these programs will have to be separated from the false idea of insurance and means tested.
“Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty”
Kyle
About gold as a backing for Social Security
Francis Cianfrocca Wednesday, May 13th at 11:59AM EDT (link)I think what you’re suggesting is to use payroll taxes to buy gold.
For one thing, there isn’t enough gold in the world to do that. The total amount of gold now in Fort Knox is roughly one-third of the amount that the payroll tax produces every year.
For another thing, that payroll tax is used by Congress for other spending, to the extent that it exceeds the annual payouts of Social Security. If they were to sink the payroll tax into gold, the federal deficit would instantly increase by the same amount.
Third, what happens when the payroll tax stops exceeding the annual payouts? Now you’re spending down your gold rather than adding to it. You still have the demographic problem of needing to increase the payroll tax or cut benefits or both, so holding gold hasn’t solved anything.
Fourth, why would you pick gold as a store of value? That would be a very questionable choice for a professional investor. Most private pension funds invest in the stock market, the bond market, emerging markets, and exotics like VC and private equity. Please tell me you don’t want the Treasury investing in those places.
well, They could invest in the private markets
kyle8 Wednesday, May 13th at 2:19PM EDT (link)and there is a way you could do it and keep the majority of politics out.
(now I am only speaking hypothetically here)
As a purely academic exercise it might be done with a combination of investments. What sort of effects it would have on the markets could be modeled. My assumption is that it would be better than what is happening now.
I understand the deflationary effect when they started pulling out of the fund, but compare that to the inflationary effect we are going to experience in the current incarnation.
Of course you are quite right, there is no way politics could be kept out of it in the real world.
“Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty”
Kyle
anyone who says SS could go "bankrupt" should be slapped.
Common_Cents Wednesday, May 13th at 12:39PM EDT (link)Can I tell my mortgage company my “mortgage fund” is bankrupt? While paying for 2 cars, motorcycle, and boat?
The ElectedElite just do that to scare us while they continue to spend trillions on their pet projects and cronies.
How about cutting spending like the rest of us need to do if revenue falls short?!!!! nahhhhhhh
“Never interrupt your enemy when he’s making a mistake.” Napoleon - Well, unless he is ruining your country! Common Cents
A cult of personality arises when a country’s leader uses mass media to create a heroic public image, often through unquestioning flattery and praise.[1] Cults of personality are often found in dictatorships.
Maybe - But I *Want* SS To Go Bankrupt!
IJB Wednesday, May 13th at 12:54PM EDT (link)As soon as SS really truly goes bankrupt, that’s when it can be “de-entitled” and immediately means-tested.
The day that happens is that day that SS can finally be brought under control.
But the only way to “save” SS is to cut back to just a bare-bones ’safety net’ program, and make everyone else live off their 401k’s…
Exactly...the US Govt "invests" the net inflows from SS like I "invest" my mortgage payments
6eorge Jetson Wednesday, May 13th at 4:01PM EDT (link)in that the total outstanding US Treasury is smaller than it would be otherwise be if the net inflow was directed somewhere else (like gold). Oh, and the rest of the US Govt debt picture is exploding.
Taking a few liberties, it’s not that much different from what you and I can do (if we have a long work life in front of us). We can take out loans based on our ability to generate future revenue (income). The US Govt can take on debt based on its ability to generate future revenue (explicit taxes, or insidiously printing money).
As to the entire US Govt debt picture, it’s long been a reverse mortgage, with the net inflows from SS lowering the increase in US debt. Soon, however, under the current “entitlement” structure, those net SS inflows will become net SS outflows.
And like you and me, the US Govt does not have a infinite ability to borrow. We’ve just seen what happens when private overleverage gets exposed. It’s been painful, but we’re still here. I’m expecting similar pain related to US govt debt in the future, only it will be meted out more gradually (reduced SS payments, higher taxes, stagflation, etc.)
Isn't "Accounting" wonderful?
USNJIMRET Wednesday, May 13th at 10:14AM EDT (link)What a grand method to make up look like down, left look right, and a deficit appear to be someone else’s fault!
Seems to me that if you spend more then you “make”, it’s a deficit.
Calling it anything else is “Accounting”.
Fund Accounting
kchand Wednesday, May 13th at 3:54PM EDT (link)The government fund accounting doesn’t have Retained Earnings as in the ‘for-profit’ world but does have Fund Balances. Many funds operate in perpetuity and roll forward. For example, college endowment funds have huge balances and operate ‘forever’ as do most general operating funds.
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Vista really sucks!