The Health Insurance Industry Is On Fire


The largest publicly-owned health insurers in America are United Healthgroup, WellPoint, Cigna International, and Aetna. (Blue Cross and Blue Shield are also dominant players in this industry, but it’s harder to get financial data on them.)

A couple of important points: Health insurance isn’t the inordinately profitable industry that Obama and his surrogates say it is. By my rough count, the four big public insurers are showing aftertax profit margins of barely three percent.

And their total profits add up to well under $10 billion a year. (Again, I’m excluding the Blues.) Obama tells us that health insurance costs too much because these companies make too much money. But even if he wipes out their profits completely, he’s nowhere near the $1 trillion or more that he’ll need in order to pay for a national insurance plan.

Do you suppose the market is saying that a public-health option is a nonstarter? Look at the stocks of those four companies for this week. They’re all up strongly, as much as 20%. In three days.

Or is the market saying that if the government takes over the low end of the insurance industry, that the private companies will take the top end and become a lot more profitable than they are now? I wish I knew the answer.

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26 Comments Leave a comment

Far be it from me to read the market

Socrates Thursday, June 18th at 11:04AM EDT (link)

…but I think there is a lot of Obama-fear already cooked in to those stocks. With the crumbling support for the government unconstitutionally becoming a competitor to these businesses, perhaps a little bit of the negative pressure is relaxing.

(Wow, obamizing is easy. I just say I would never do something and then do it in the next sentence. I need a shower.)


Gone 2500 years, still not PC.

 

Follow Shakespeare's advice for health care reform.

Xasteius Thursday, June 18th at 11:25AM EDT (link)

I’m far from knowledgeable about the situation, but wouldn’t tort reform solve a large chunk of the cost problem? What other factors would lower the cost?

Don’t leave the party, hijack it back!

Eternal vigilance is the price of freedom.

When I grow up, I don’t want to be Reagan. I want to be Art Chance.
~Aaron Gardner

"Defensive medicine" is a huge percentage of

Achance Thursday, June 18th at 11:38AM EDT (link)

medical cost and that would be alleviated by tort reform. Drug advertising is also a major issue; people come in demanding the newest, most expensive drugs because they’ve self-diagnosed and want the drug based on advertising. “Cadillac” health plans, especially union and public employer plans, with no co-pays or deductibles are extraordinarily expensive as are plans that provide generous coverage for dependent mental health.

When we started our serious drive for cost containment on our H&W for unionized employees in the early ’90s we found our single greatest expense was for dependent mental health. That was a combination of drug rehab and of the various “give us your kid for thirty days and we’ll fix the brat” providers that are out there hustling parents who can’t or won’t parent. Putting some hefty deductibles on that crap pretty much eliminated those costs.

All sorts of legislative coverage mandates run up costs as do all sorts of government mandated tests. If a provider knows you have to have something, they can pretty much charge what they want for it.

In Vino Veritas

Health Savings Accounts help a lot

JoeG Friday, June 19th at 12:54AM EDT (link)

As of Jan ‘09, I’ve been on a HSA (not the much more common FSA).

I pay everything until I spend $3K on medical, and then I still pay 20% until I hit $6K out of pocket.

The upside is that I can put money in a checking account pre-tax. It’s in my account and I don’t lose what I don’t use Dec 31st.

6 months later and I’m really convinced they save huge amounts of money. I actually look at what things are going to cost. If it’s necessary, I do it. But if it’s just defensive expense for the doc, I don’t.

 
 
 

Holland

alexg Thursday, June 18th at 11:27AM EDT (link)

I have family in Holland who have told me all about their travails with public healthcare: They all pay insurance premiums to private insurance companies (400+/mo. for a family of 4) to ensure that actual doctors can take care of them. Perhaps your hypothesis that this is actually a win-win for these companies could be true.

Are their profit margins really that slim? I don’t understand how that can be true - does it include depreciation of assets or some other tax-purposed financial inconspicuousness? I’m not trying to paint them as the boogeymen they’re constantly labeled as, but I don’t quite understand how that business can be run at such a staggeringly low profit margin.

What you’re indicating is upsetting, however, because I sincerely hoped that these companies would emerge as a force against this legislation, and if they’re really just being positioned as a hegemony along with a growing government, then that presents a problem. That could curtail doctors from standing up against this.

Does it make money?

Fred Maidment Thursday, June 18th at 6:19PM EDT (link)

Then it’s a business somebody will invest in.

In my corporate finance classes (and since in the actual business world), I was enlightened to a spurious concept: Profits are too low.

If a project is profitable, it is worth the investment. The issue is one of opportunity cost: “Is there something else we could invest in that will make more money, but would prevent an investment in this project?”

Same goes for investing in companies. The profits might be low, but they are still better than losses!

How to Start a Business - Fred’s News

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“I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it.”
- - Thomas Jefferson, to Archibald Stuart, 1791

 
 

This study is a bit outdated (from 2006) but

nyindy Thursday, June 18th at 11:32AM EDT (link)

It sheds some light on why we spend so much on healthcare.

http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/US_healthcare/pdf/US_healthcare_Chapter1.pdf

“When a man finds a conclusion agreeable, he accepts it without argument, but when he finds it disagreeable, he will bring against it all the forces of logic and reason.” -Thucydides

 

Several possible interpretations

civil_truth Thursday, June 18th at 11:54AM EDT (link)

The scary one is that the market has discounted the likelihood that national health care is coming, but that they are confidenct that these large insurers will cut a good deal for themselves as the price of their smoothing the way.

A more optimistic interpretation (that Francis mentioned) is that the market believes that the “public option” is off the table, which means that insurance companies have a clear path to continuing in business - and with universal coverage, they expect that they will prosper under the new regime.

In any case, it would seem apparent that these stocks prices are no longer factoring in a “fear premium” - hence the sharp rise in prices.

My Bet Is The Latter

IJB Thursday, June 18th at 12:14PM EDT (link)

I’ve already personally concluded that Obamacare will never pass - the only way to pass it is massive debts & deficits, or massive tax increases, and cowardly Dem politicians have the stomach for neither.

Obama made a massive tactical mistake when he pushed the stimulus & bailouts first - it has exhausted his political capital. He should have pushed for Card Check & Amnesty first - those would have locked in Democrat majorities for centuries…

 
 

The high cost of Healthcare come from the slip and fall lawyers

bobojake Thursday, June 18th at 11:55AM EDT (link)

Then incompetent Senators and Congressman that have built a mafia style good ole boy network with Kennedy, kerry, schummmer, reid, peloski obama, rangel, frank, feinstein, murray, and any other Senator or Congressman that has been in Congress 20 years or more. The change we have to have is throw the thugs out of office and put successful teachers, preachers, businessman, housewives in Congress for 1 or 2 terms and then get out and go back to their successful endeavors.
I will take a house wife any day that is managing with 2 kids on a budget under $30,000 a year then these highly educated incompetent that still have to read words off a flash card. Most of us gave the flash cards up by the second grade. I think as many times obama has used inappropiately BOLD, HISTORIC, INDESPUTIBLE the list goes just go on and on.
I’ve heard obama boogy man story and both times it was from obama. People get tired of the same old Saul Alewinsky, billy ayers the terrorost, frankie the communist and rev wright the i hate America Radical. We have had all these forces driving heath care and all other products and services up
It time for less government not more government doles..

 

The plaintiffs-lawyer lobby blows $9 million and gets nowhere.

izoneguy Thursday, June 18th at 11:59AM EDT (link)

Texas Tort Victories
The plaintiffs-lawyer lobby blows $9 million and gets nowhere.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124484677048211303.html

Among the more notable failed proposals were a bill that would have shifted the burden of medical proof away from plaintiffs and on to defendants in asbestos and mesothelioma cases; an attempt to rip up Texas’s successful system of trying multidistrict litigation in a single court; and legislation to allow plaintiffs to sue for “phantom” medical expenses.

Republicans also got a helping hand from a number of brave, antilawsuit Democrats, many of them from South Texas, where litigation has exacted more of an economic toll.

Speaking of the economy, it’s notable that Texas created more new jobs last year than the other 49 states combined. Texas’s low tax burden is one reason. But also important is a fairer legal environment in which companies are less likely than they were a generation ago to face jackpot justice.

“When the government fears the people, there is liberty. When the people fear the government, there is tyranny.”
Thomas Jefferson

Amen

bobojake Thursday, June 18th at 12:22PM EDT (link)
 
 

Insurance companies are trying

Maggie_in_Indiana Thursday, June 18th at 12:55PM EDT (link)

to be competitive. I cancelled my policy after the premium soared 3 months ago. They would not consider reducing it,so I went elsewhere. Yesterday I signed a policy that had the same coverage and deductibles for a 25% less cost. This price is locked for 2 years.

Shopping for Insurance period is a pain but the controversy right now is bringing down the cost. What would more open markets do for the costs of insurance and medical costs? Competition is part of the answer for the private sector.
Our local clinic relies on volunteer doctors and nurses who donate their time once a month and the cost is based on your ability to pay.(prescriptions are samples supplied by drug companies). The equipment is donated by doctors offices and hospitals who would have otherwise thrown them away. Our community holds fundraisers for cash donations along with regular donors who give what they can.

There are many alternatives to costs and care being made by individuals and groups. We should encourage them and make their efforts known.

Maggie in Indiana

Many things in a free society are a pain

blacknblue Thursday, June 18th at 1:04PM EDT (link)

but it is what makes a free society.

 
 

I was a stock broker for almost 20 years S7 person

blacknblue Thursday, June 18th at 1:02PM EDT (link)

During the years that I was in business I received many reports on insurance industries and the health and P&C industries have very thin profit margins. I left the business in 1999.

The out right lying is why I abhor politicians. The average person will buy their BS but those in the know, it will drive them crazy. I often thought it would be best to be fat, uninformed and happy.

The man heading the country is a big, big liar. But those welfare recipients don’t know or care if he is a liar.

Exactly Right

avgamerican Thursday, June 18th at 10:44PM EDT (link)

It could also be called mob rule and the end of western civilization

 
 

…..or it could just be the situation is being over read

Marcus_Traianus Thursday, June 18th at 1:10PM EDT (link)

In a market where many are looking for opportunities, companies such as UNH have some pretty solid fundamentals. They are also pretty well run, cost conscious and fiscally savvy.

UNH continues to grow after tax income and that trend looks like it will continue upward (although if I remember correctly there are some analysts who are not convinced (shocker- I know). They also recently had their debt rating confirmed and have revenue growth over the past five years somewhere above 20%. (Caution, ObamaCare Mendacity Spoiler Follows) As you correctly pointed out, their margins are slim compared to similar sized companies in other industries.

If I had to conduct any divination, it would be that UNH’s product diversity is what some analysts are looking at. UNH has a big role in the Medicaid/Medicare manage care area and decent related growth trends. Given these fundamental facts, some are betting at a minimum UNH will continue to grow in those areas based on population/social demographics. A potential bonus is that any watered down healthcare plan may have a positive affect on those programs (the lobbyists are working overtime).

Overall, the current outlook is good, but could change with the advent of a truly socialized program which will destroy the private market. But it is just way to early to tell. Think short term profits.

“Both of our political parties, at least the honest portion of them, agree conscientiously in the same object—the public good; but they differ essentially in what they deem the means of promoting that good. One side believes it best done by one composition of the governing powers; the other, by a different one. One fears most the ignorance of the people; the other, the selfishness of rulers independent of them. Which is right, time and experience will prove.”.Thomas Jefferson

Contributor to The Minority Report

So you're making the case for rotation into a defensive sector

Francis Cianfrocca Thursday, June 18th at 1:52PM EDT (link)

Which is indeed a plausible explanation. It’s awfully big and awfully fast, though. And it’s not being mirrored elsewhere in the market, not as far as I can see.

Look at the action in UNH’s competitors. This isn’t a relative value trade. For your case to work, it needs to be applicable to the other three as well.

Also, what if it turns out that the insurance industry will indeed be decimated by national healthcare in the next few weeks? Money will rotate out just as fast as it rotated in. Why would investors not just wait and see?

Not exactly defensive blackie

Marcus_Traianus Friday, June 19th at 11:24AM EDT (link)

Ultimately, I think it is about volatility and trying to make short term profits. While a great deal of the market is indeed transitory, healthcare seems especially ripe for exploitation given congressional intervention. Politicians are always great proliferators of chaos. And yes, I think it is possible we could see a very fast pullback. Especially since you traders are so whimsical :-)

Overall the sector is fairly tight, so I believe investments in top players could bring up some of the other companies vis-à-vis speculation and the sheep mentality. That is one possible explanation for the somewhat ubiquitous sector investment, despite inconsistency in balance sheet/operating fundamentals. UNH clearly outperforms most of the others and in my opinion is very well run. That is a good launching point for downward speculation. Look at what GS did a few weeks ago when they were pushing MEE (admittedly a very different sector). It temporarily brought up even some of the laggards in that sector.

I don’t completely disagree with your speculation. Now that Tom Daschle is advising Obama and Democrats to put a “government takeover/option” aside and focus on other avenues, it has provided an additional analytical dimension. But once the market realizes this is a Trojan horse and the alternatives under consideration could slowly devastate the sector (slow burn vs. nuclear) we could possibly see some different conclusions being reached. Overall, time will tell.

“Both of our political parties, at least the honest portion of them, agree conscientiously in the same object—the public good; but they differ essentially in what they deem the means of promoting that good. One side believes it best done by one composition of the governing powers; the other, by a different one. One fears most the ignorance of the people; the other, the selfishness of rulers independent of them. Which is right, time and experience will prove.”.Thomas Jefferson

Contributor to The Minority Report

 
 
 

Obama will have 2 ways to crack this industry ...

loganyung Thursday, June 18th at 3:34PM EDT (link)

With the new proposed rules that will allow Treasury to take over companies that pose a ‘threat’ to the American economy, Obama will have the tools to take over the healthcare industry in the same way that the government took over General Motors.

This gang looks like they are randomly throwing crap up in the face of the American people, but it’s possible that there is a method to their insanity. Hard to give them that much credit, but there are probably some evil intelligent people like Soros behind the scenes who have been planning this for an awfully long time.

 

Let's get our terminology straight...

Fred Maidment Thursday, June 18th at 6:26PM EDT (link)

…When we talk about “health insurance,” let us only be discussing “insurance,” that is, “a financial instrument to protect against the unexpected.”

Most of the time, when pundits discuss “healthcare” or “health insurance,” they are actually discussing “health maintenance.” This is a pre-paid payment plan for the normally expected annual cost of medical care.

These are two different concepts, and the GOP needs to wake up to that fact and start talking about it.

Health “insurance” is not even available in most states unless it is combined with a health maintenance plan. If I could, I’d buy insurance and dump maintenance. I’m 28 and healthy. I need something that will cover me if they find a tumor in my brain or I get in a car wreck, not a case of the sniffles. That’s insurance.

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“I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it.”
- - Thomas Jefferson, to Archibald Stuart, 1791

Excellent point Fred, thank you. nt

redstatebluestate123 Thursday, June 18th at 6:29PM EDT (link)
 

I work for one of the Blues...

ChattDawg Thursday, June 18th at 6:38PM EDT (link)

We’re actually privately-owned (and that could be the case with other Blues, as well). That might explain the dearth of info on the financials for the Blues.

“In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem — government IS the problem…” Ronald Wilson Reagan, January 20, 1981.

Not All Blues Privately Owned

williemcbride Thursday, June 18th at 7:43PM EDT (link)

Wellpoint, which Francis mentioned in his original post, is the parent company for Blues plans in ME, NH, NY, CT, KY, OH, IN. GA, CO, WI, MO and CA.

 
 

Several options I think:

drkven Thursday, June 18th at 6:44PM EDT (link)

*Stock market is unpredicable in itself.

*They think they can become followers in a hurry if they have to..

*They doubt socialized Medicine will happen.

*HSA&HIgh-deductible policies will happen em masse during Obama.

Despite losses seem like an inevitable thing that will survive even the next years.

 

A really good argument I heard just today.

JoeG Friday, June 19th at 12:58AM EDT (link)

A common argument made in favor of universal insurance is that the US spends more than any other country yet we rank way down on “quality of health care.”

The reason for those rankings is the health care that 18% of those without insurance get. The remaining 82% get the best care in the world.

Lets not ruin the best care in the world that those 82% get to “fix” things for the remaining 18%.

 

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