Peter A. Diamond, a professor of economics at MIT, has just published a hissy fit in the NY Times titled “When a Nobel Prize isn’t enough.” I won’t link the piece because of the Times’s paywall, so I’ll just tell you what he says. Diamond wants to be a governor of the Federal Reserve. Barack Obama wants the same thing, having nominated Diamond three times | Read More »
Just when you thought US Treasury debt couldn’t get more overpriced, it gets… more overpriced. The 10-year yield fell all the way to 2.95% yesterday. It held that level for part of this morning, and now is just under 3%. At least some of this has to be due to the supply disruption caused by the US hitting its debt ceiling. (Existing debt can be | Read More »
Dave Leonhardt has a piece in today’s New York Times (“Holding Bernanke Accountable,” no link due to paywall). I’m sad about this piece because Leonhardt is a very knowledgeable guy whom I always enjoy reading. But I find that he has a tendency to fall back on conventional wisdom. At times I feel that his research is limited to what he reads in his own | Read More »
I’ve been asked to give some basic perspective on what the Fed’s “quantitative easing” actually is. Since writing this piece, I’ve become more convinced that I was on the right track. So far, three different QE models have been observed in the wild: the Japanese (2001-06), the British (2008-09), and Bernanke I (2008-10). We’re about to see Bernanke II. All of them are forms of | Read More »
Here it is. That’s the Fed’s announcement of two new facilities. The Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF) will create credit, to be made available to a “Special Purpose Vehicle” (SPV), as authorized under Section 13(3) (the “unusual and exigent circumstances” section) of the Federal Reserve Act. The SPV is authorized to purchase three-month dollar-denominated commercial paper from eligible issuers. There isn’t a lot of detail | Read More »
Well, the sausage factory worked overtime this weekend. What a bizarre result we got. Secretary Paulson came to Capitol Hill about ten days ago with a very simple, three-page plan to do something I could describe in three paragraphs. Congressional Democrats gave us over one hundred pages of additional weirdness that is either ineffectual, noxious, off the point, or will work against the goals of | Read More »
The attention of financial markets yesterday was fixed on the Congressional testimony of Treasury Secretary Paulson and Fed Chairman Bernanke. It was an up and down day, mostly down. Bernanke finally gave us an (elliptical) answer to one of the questions that most concerns Wall Street about the bailout plan: the valuation at which distressed mortgage-backed securities will be purchased. The other question, whether there | Read More »
We’re now into our second day of market reactions to the Treasury and Fed’s Troubled Assets Relief Program (“TARP”), or if you prefer, Mother of All Bailouts (“MOAB”). Market reaction in general is quite positive, which I’ll get to shortly. But the action is moving to Capitol Hill, where Paulson and Bernanke need to convince Congress to pass enabling legislation for the plan before they | Read More »
About two weeks ago, I wrote in this space that some very large tectonic plates were starting to move far below sea level in the financial world. That was based on some unusual patterns I was seeing in the overnight repo and money markets. I guessed (but had no information to confirm) that whatever was in the breeze had something to do with Fannie Mae | Read More »
In the financial markets, last week was the wildest and most dramatic one since the Bear Stearns Companies collapsed last March. The subject was whether we would see a collapse of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) that together own or guarantee $5.3 trillion in US home mortgages. And by extension, the fear spread to the entire US financial sector. The popular | Read More »
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