We’ve had a remarkable run in US notes and bonds over the past several weeks. The economically-sensitive 10-year note briefly yielded more than 4% in mid April. After an astounding rally yesterday, buying in the 10-year continues this morning, and its yield is down to 3.57 as I write. I’m at a loss to convey the magnitude of this move in such a short time. | Read More »
Tim Geithner went to market today to sell 30-year bonds, and he got plastered. The interest rate shot up past 4.28%, and it pulled up the rest of the right side of the yield curve. The auction went unexpectedly bad as there were relatively fewer bids than in the past. Before you rush to say it, no, the Chinese weren’t in there buying. But that | Read More »
Global stock markets are soft across the board as we swing into the first trading day of February. At first glance, this appears to be responsive to the constant drumbeat of terrible economic news, as economies and trade shrink in unison. The action in the bond markets appears to be somewhat healthier. For several weeks, the theme underneath the surface noise in corporate debt markets | Read More »
To go along with the piece I wrote earlier today (here), the bond market appears to have picked up on the theme of deflation. The 30-year US Treasury bond rocketed upward in price to more than 118 and a half by today’s market close, and much of the move came late in the day. This price corresponds to an interest-rate of 3.49% for the long | Read More »
This post will be brief, as duty calls. You don’t need me to point out the broad carnage in financial markets this morning. It’s going to be a tough day. Margin calls will drive a lot of selling. We may get a brief respite rally after all of the weaker hands get washed out. Time frame for this would be the next several weeks. No | Read More »
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