Morning Briefing for January 14, 2009


Here’s this morning’s briefing of all the news you should be paying attention to.

1. Associated Press Gets Ben Bernanke’s Statement Wrong: The AP says Fed chief Bernanke thinks Obama’s stimulus package would “lift economy.” That’s not what Bernanke thinks.

2. Barack Obama Re-Interprets TARP: TARP was intended to buy up troubled assets and help deal with the liquidity crisis. Obama wants to turn it into a welfare program.

3. Joe Biden Says Obama Embracing Bush Plan in Iraq: Maybe he misspoke, but Joe Biden makes it clear the new administration will steer the same course as the outgoing guys in Iraq.

4. Barack Obama Cooks the Books: Obama is intentionally painting a doomsday scenario — either to pave the way for huge tax increases, or to make himself look like a miracle worker even if things get much worse from here on out.

5. Democrats Reintroduce SCHIP: Their plan is a budget buster that will raise taxes and expand the program beyond taking care of kids.

——————————————–

1. Associated Press Gets Ben Bernanke’s Statement Wrong

The AP says Fed chief Bernanke thinks Obama’s stimulus package would “lift economy.” That’s not what Bernanke thinks.

The AP, like every other mainstream press organization, is so convinced that you’re stoopid, that they try to get away with blatantly biased statements like this.

You have to read Bernanke’s words to get a clearer picture of what Bernanke is saying here. And what he’s really saying matches closely with what I’ve been telling you here for weeks now:

A fiscal stimulus is fine as far as it goes. It will certainly pump up reported GDP statistics for a while, but it doesn’t fix the real issues. We still have major problems in the financial system that must be solved before any kind of sustained economic recovery can take place.

2. Barack Obama Re-Interprets TARP

TARP was intended to buy up troubled assets and help deal with the liquidity crisis. Obama wants to turn it into a welfare program.

In a letter to Congress, Obama adviser Larry Summers said that Obama wants to be handing TARP money out to community banks, small businesses, consumers unable to borrow money, and people in danger of being foreclosed on their mortgages.

In short, these people are looking at the TARP as a big welfare program. That’s not what it was supposed to be.

The TARP was a break-glass-in-case-of-fire program, originally conceived as a last-ditch response to an extreme emergency. That emergency materialized in mid-September as the institutional money markets crumbled in the wake of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy.

3. Joe Biden Says Obama Embracing Bush Plan in Iraq

Maybe he misspoke, but Joe Biden makes it clear the new administration will steer the same course as the outgoing guys in Iraq.

The truth is, though he was nominated in large part for his firm anti-Iraq stances, Obama and his chosen team have been all over the map on the issue, with the only consistency being that, as the primary gave way to the general election, the general election gave way to the transition, and the transition in turn gave way to the inauguration, his position has become farther and farther right, to the point at which, now, his position and apparent policy largely indistinguishable from those of his predecessor.

At an appearance in Baghdad today, Biden said that “the new administration will stick to the timetable in the [U.S-Iraq Status of Forces] agreement.” As AP writer Robert Reid points out, “Obama pledged during his election campaign to withdraw all American combat troops from Iraq within 16 months of taking office” (naturally he misses the fact that Obama actually sponsored legislation that would have removed all troops from Iraq by March of last year). The SOFA, though, provides for combat troops to remain in Iraq until 2012, with the possibility of an even longer stay if the situation on the ground warrants it.

Biden said the incoming president, though still committed to withdrawal, now “wants the withdrawal to be a responsible one,” and that he “does not want to waste the security gains that have been achieved,” according to Iraqi spokesperson Ali al-Dabbagh.

4. Barack Obama Cooks the Books

Obama is intentionally painting a doomsday scenario — either to pave the way for huge tax increases, or to make himself look like a miracle worker even if things get much worse from here on out.

Since Orszag was the Director of the CBO until recently — and since these data are recent enough to take into account all we know about the current downturn — it would not be surprising if Orszag’s projections closely mirrored those of the CBO. In fact, since Orszag is at liberty to project how these numbers will be improved by Obama’s policies (something CBO’s projections cannot do), we would expect that Orszag’s numbers would be better than those of the CBO.

Instead, they are dramatically worse.

While the CBO projects that current policies will yield deficits of roughly 1 percent of GDP by 2019, Orszag anticipates they will be 5 times higher. And that’s after Obama scrubs the federal budget line by line to cut our waste, after he restores economic growth, after he introduces extraordinary new efficiencies to health care, after he restores the solvency of our entitlement programs, and after he fixes the educational system and America’s crumbling infrastructure.

In other words, once Obama has delivered us a better world, the budget will look far, far worse than we think possible today.

Obama is intentionally painting a doomsday scenario here — either to pave the way for huge tax increases, or to make himself look like a miracle worker even if things get much worse from here on out.

5. Democrats Reintroduce SCHIP

Their plan is a budget buster that will raise taxes and expand the program beyond taking care of kids.

To fund this massive expansion of SCHIP (and an expansion of government along with it) Democrats are counting on at least 22 million new smokers to light up.

This isn’t going to happen; which means the Democrats either plan to A) kick children off of health insurance or B) raise taxes on all of us by tens of billions of dollars. Any guess on what direction they will choose? (Hint: it isn’t option A)

While Democrats are proposing a permanent tobacco tax increase of up to 61 cents per pack of cigarettes many of overlooking the “problem” this creates.

The “problem” is that the percentage of Americans who smoke has been dropping for decades. And research and logic both show that raising the prices of cigarettes will lead to less smoking. Less smoking will lead to less taxes being collected. Less taxes being collected will lead to less and less money being collected by Uncle Sam to pay for an expansion of SCHIP.

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17 Comments Leave a comment

I think you said the AP got Bernanke's words wrong?...

JadedByPolitics Wednesday, January 14th at 6:17AM EST (link)

That sir is called the AP LIED you are much to kind!

Whoever has his enemy at his mercy &
does not destroy him is his own enemy

 

Nataional Review asks "Is It Time To Roll up the TARP?"

6eorge Jetson Wednesday, January 14th at 6:30AM EST (link)


   Time To Roll up the TARP

Like Francis, I think the TARP program and other Fed initiatives were fairly successful in averting disaster. Just like Bush gets no credit for the lack of a terrorist attact since 9/11, Bernanke, Paulson & their appointer Bush are getting no credit for averting a financial medicine.

But as with any good medicine, there comes a time when the its wise to stop after the medicine has served its purpose. With all the talk of the diversion of the remainder of the TARP allocation by Obama, perhaps it’s time to recognize a job well done and the law of diminishing returns.

True, bankers are still reluctant to extend new credit. Of course, the recession has a lot to do with that. But another factor, one that I think will attract private capital to the banking system, is the abnormally large spread between yields on a desirable asset, high yields on US Govt guaranteed* Agency Mortgage Backed Securities, and a desirable funding vehicle, bank deposits/CDs backed up to $250,000 by the FDIC.

It’s understandable that presently risk-averse investors (banks) are reluctant to extend new lending when the spread between their funding and one of their nearly riskless investment options is at decades-long high. Oversimplifying a tad, the Bloomberg reported spread between a FNMA/Freddie qualifying mortgage and a 5 yr CD is at 5.10 - 2.97 = 2.13 today versus 5.52 - 4.35 = 1.17 a year ago.

See Bloomberg-reported Key Rates

Key Rates ————— 1/14/09—-1 MonthAgo–3 MoAgo–6 MoAgo–1 YrAgo–

FedTarget Rate ——— 0.25 ———— 1.00 ——— 1.50 ——– 2.00 ——- 4.25
1-Month Libor ———— 0.33 ———— 1.04 ——— 4.56 ——– 2.46 ——- 4.24
3-Month Libor ———— 1.09 ———— 1.92 ——— 4.75 ——– 2.79 ——- 4.26
5-Yr AAA Bank/Fin —- 4.86 ———— 5.51 ——— 6.40 ——– 5.00 ——- 4.43
10-Yr AAA Bank/Fin — 5.54 ———— 6.36 ——— 7.76 ——– 5.91 ——- 5.21

30-Yr Fixed Mtg ——— 5.10 ———– 5.57 ——— 6.23 ——— 6.09 ——- 5.52
5-Yr CD ———————- 2.97 ———— 3.69 ——– 4.14 ——— 4.07 ——- 4.35

This is my opinion, but I think that spread will attract capital to that spread (while it exists), but as the supply of capital increases, that spread will shrink. At some point, as that very low-hanging fruit is all picked, the extension of new credit to small businesses, etc. will become sufficiently attractive once again.

So, like w/ the Bush administration’s US homefront protection and the war in Iraq, history may judge the actions (on this issue) of 43 in a very complimentary light.

Step 1) Avoid the calamity (petty mistakes are not relevant)
Step 2) Attract private capital into the banking system motivated by arbitrage-like opportunities
Step 3) Wait for the markets to adjust in a way that makes the extension of new credit a competitive option once again. (Water will seek its own level.)

 

Obama and Iraq

hacbarton Wednesday, January 14th at 7:23AM EST (link)

What?! A candidate broke a campaign promise?! That’s preposterous!
Come on. I know, as Republicans, we’re supposed to be bitter, but these things happen. Shouldn’t we be discussing a way to un-buy our financial industry?

Well hacbarton since "we" should be discussing...

JadedByPolitics Wednesday, January 14th at 8:03AM EST (link)

a way to un-buy our financial industry as opposed to what is discussed in this diary perhaps you CAN write a diary on just that!

Whoever has his enemy at his mercy &
does not destroy him is his own enemy

 
 

Barack Lying!?!?

PaRep Wednesday, January 14th at 9:38AM EST (link)

I am SHOCKED!!, SHOCKED I SAY !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Barack The Magic Socialist!!!!!!!!!!!!

Welcome Back Numbnuts!

$peciallist Wednesday, January 14th at 11:38AM EST (link)

lol

“..and now you are our piñata, spitting out stupidity like candy when we hit you.”…Neil Stevens

From his comment below, I think you meant NumbHands. <nt>

Brian Hibbert Wednesday, January 14th at 12:01PM EST (link)

Socialism doesn’t work. It looks nice on paper, but it’s been tried and it’s failed miserably every time (usually accompanied by widespread death and suffering).
Proud member of the V.R.W.C.

Inside Joke (NT)

PaRep Wednesday, January 14th at 12:47PM EST (link)
 
 

PaRep....

Attack Mode Wednesday, January 14th at 11:41AM EST (link)

Gimme your lunch money!!!!….;^)…How have you been long time no see…errr…read I mean.

“Land of the Free and Home of da Whopper” Peter Griffin…Family Guy

conform and celebrate diversity….or else!!!

Steel-Belted Radial Right Winger

“I’ll create 5 million jobs from out of unicorn farts and pixie dust” Justatron paraphrasing Obamessiah…yes I love it that much.

Thanks I have recovered from CTS release Surgery

PaRep Wednesday, January 14th at 11:46AM EST (link)

And have to have it done on my LH Feb. 17

Leave me alone or I will tell the teacher!!!!!!!!

Well hopefully the surgery will go well and you will be back in form quickly..good to have you back...nt

Attack Mode Wednesday, January 14th at 11:50AM EST (link)

“Land of the Free and Home of da Whopper” Peter Griffin…Family Guy

conform and celebrate diversity….or else!!!

Steel-Belted Radial Right Winger

“I’ll create 5 million jobs from out of unicorn farts and pixie dust” Justatron paraphrasing Obamessiah…yes I love it that much.

Thanks Aaron!!!

PaRep Wednesday, January 14th at 11:53AM EST (link)

Good to be back at Redstate

PaRep! Good to see your name again. Welcome home.

janis Wednesday, January 14th at 12:11PM EST (link)

On a related note, the supply of Scooby treats has been piling up around here. Hungry? :-)

RUH-ROH RAGGY!!!!!

PaRep Wednesday, January 14th at 12:14PM EST (link)

YEAH YEAH !!!!!!!!!!

You get a full basket of them when you take down a juicy troll.

janis Wednesday, January 14th at 12:22PM EST (link)

Although the troll population is not what it once was around here, but we can hope to at least have some dropping in to sneer. Just clamp down on a leg–try to ignore the nasty taste–and growl. You get your treats.

Unless, of course, you prefer sea kittens as a treat?

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

SCHIP can be fought.

margo Wednesday, January 14th at 10:04AM EST (link)

Enough is enough. It’s disgusting enough that smokers can be scapegoated for the benefit of parents who don’t take responsibility for their own kids. I don’t believe for a minute that handing out this charity at the expense of free citizens who choose to smoke a legal product is going to make us a stronger country.

 

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, We Are Abolishing Credit.

mcshalom Thursday, January 15th at 1:55AM EST (link)

All of Our Economic Problems Find They Root in the Existence of Credit.

A Credit Free, Free Market Economy Is Possible.

Both Dynamic on the Short Run & Stable on the Long Run.

I Propose, Hence, to Lead for You an Exit Out of Credit:

Let me outline for you my proposed strategy:

Introduction.

The Numbered Account.

The Credit Free Money: The Dinar Shekel AKA The DaSh, Symbol: - .

Asset Transfer: The Right Grant Operation.

A Specific Application of Employment Interest and Money.
[Intended For my Fellows Economists].

If Risk Free Interest Rates Are at 0.00% Doesn’t That Mean That Credit is Worthless?

Since credit based currencies are managed by setting interest rates,
on which all control has been lost, Are they managed anymore?

We Need, Hence, Cancel All Interest Bearing Debt and Abolish Interest Bearing Credit.

In This Age of Turbulence The People Want an Exit Out of Credit:
An Adventure in a New World Economic Order.

The other option would be to wait till most of the productive assets of the economy get physically destroyed either by war or by rust.

It will be either awfully deadly or dramatically long.

A price none of us can afford to pay.

“The current crisis can be overcome only by developing a sense of common purpose.
The alternative to a new international order is chaos.”

- Henry A. Kissinger

Let me provide you with a link to my press release for my open letter to you:

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, Quantitative Easing Can’t Work!

I am, Mr Chairman, Yours Sincerely,

Shalom P. Hamou AKA ‘MC Shalom’
Chief Economist - Master Conductor
1 7 7 6 - Annuit Cœptis
Tel: +972 54 441-7640

 

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