Redstate

By Brad Smith Posted in Archived — Comments (2) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

One of the many House seats Democrats have targeted for the kill this year is Ohio 15, currently held by retiring Congresswoman Deb Pryce. Pryce, first elected in a tough three-way race in 1992, repeatedly breezed to re-election until the Democratic onslaught of 2006, when she held off Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy by just 1062 votes, after a recount.

Pryce, was a good campaigner but never much liked campaigning, and facing a rematch with Kilroy, decided to step down after this term.

Republicans have held this seat since 1966, and until 2006 had won every race in that time with at least 60% of the vote except for 59% won by Chalmers Wylie in 1990, his last election, and Pryce's 44-38 victory to claim the seat in 1992. But the demographics have been trending Democratic, with Bush winning only 52% of the vote in 2000 (the same as the weak Bob Dole in 1996) and just 50.4% in 2004.

Republicans initially seemed to come up empty in finding a solid candidate for the race. They were turned down by popular State Senator Steve Stivers, former Columbus Mayor Greg Lashutka, and former state Attorney General Jim Petro. Stivers eventually changed his mind and agreed only last November to enter the race.

In that context, Stivers' fundraising numbers posted this month are impressive. Stivers raised over $380,000 in the first quarter and has raised nearly $800,000 since declaring for the seat. He had $600,000 cash on hand at the close of the reporting period. Kilroy had a bit over $700,000 cash on hand as of mid-February, and can also expect substantial spending in the district from the DCCC, Emily's list, and union-backed 527s.

As a result, Stivers will almost certainly be outspent in the race, but his strong fundraising puts him squarely in the race. A moderate conservative, Stivers is a Lt. Colonel in the Ohio Army National Guard, and has led troops in Iraq, and it is not clear that the vitriolic attacks on the Iraq war that marked Kilroy's '06 campaign can be carried off against Stivers.

The district includes parts of Franklin County (Columbus) and two rural counties, Madison and Union. Pryce held her seat in '06 by crushing Kilroy in the rural counties even while losing Franklin by a not insubstantial margin. Stivers' state Senate seat is based in Franklin County so he is known to many voters in that part of the district. Kilroy, who scarcely campaigned in Madison and Union in 2006, probably won't make that mistake again, but Stivers should roll up good margins there nonetheless.

In a tough year for Republicans, here in central Ohio the party seems to determined to make a stand. The race is important for other reasons as well - for Republicans to carry Ohio in the Presidential, they must remain close in Central Ohio. A strong showing by Stivers will help.

This is expected to be one of the most competitive and most watched races in the country. You can support the Stivers campaign at Stivers for Congress.