Most Delegates, Most Votes, Most Money - Who's Your Front Runner?

By Brad Smith Posted in Archived — Comments (8) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

The GOP has had three contests: a primary in New England; a caucus in the midwest; and a caucus in the far west. Only one candidate has been strong in all three contests.

After tonight's results, Mitt Romney has more delegates than any other GOP candidate; has received more votes than any other GOP candidate; and has more money to keep campaigning than any other GOP candidate. Read on...

Not the night we Romney supporters had hoped for, true, and we know that there is a good possibility that McCain will get a "bump" in the Michigan polls from his 5 point win in New Hampshire, but the idea that Romney is "toast" is a bit silly, don't you think? No one said it would be easy.

A final thought. We keep hearing that everyone wants "change." But note that late breaking voters in both primaries tonight opted for the old shoes - candidates - McCain and Clinton - who have been on the national stage for a decade or more. Interesting.

Not Mitt Romney by Adam C

Because those three things don't predict who will win well. They help, but there is something more important. Momentum. And every campaign knows that momentum going into 2/5 is the only way to stay in the race. Mitt knows this. He knows he has to win MI or SC.

I don't think Romney is toast, but futures markets put him in 4th place with a 12% chance of winning. If you think they are wrong, I'd encourage you to sign up at Intrade and make some dough.

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Reply To This — User Info — #1

How to write an Adam C by Left Coast R

How to write an Adam C post:
1. Momentum (even Romney knows that!)
2. 2/5
3. Future markets

Freedom and religion endure together, or perish alone. --Mitt Romney

Reply To This — User Info — #2

It's worked for me so far by Adam C

First, we have to understand what the goal is. It's not like it's a secret or something. Even Rudy's late strategy starts a week before 2/5. Notice Romney wasn't using a delegate count as his metric before he lost IA and NH. It's a nice way to cheer up the supporters. But it doesn't tell you anything about the eventual winner.

Second, futures markets are the fastest changing metric we have for current probabilities of an event. That's why while all of RS today was buzzing about the likelihood Romney was catching up to McCain and would beat him, I didn't get too nervous. The futures had it at about 80% chance for McCain all day. I expected Fox's Election Day poll showing McCain ahead 1 to change it. It didn't.

They don't catch everything. But they weed out a lot of unnecessary BS because people have to put money on it rather than just right an article.

Finally, it's been really frustrating during these primaries on RS. A lot of people who are generally good at analyzing things are happy to stop being reasonable and to write about what they hope will happen instead of what is likely.

That would be no problem if they labeled their work as such. "My Dream for MI, SC and FL." But instead, we get pieces that say "SC is in the bad for Romney" or some such. And it's been sad to me to see people either delusion themselves or try to hoodwink those around them.

Romney has a chance. It's a smaller chance than yesterday. He can win MI. He can go into 2/5 with a chance to win more than UT. But WY and NV and having X delegates today have nothing to do with that.

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Reply To This — User Info — #3

Just giving you a hard time. by Left Coast R

Just giving you a hard time. I'm on the intrade bandwagon. I still don't think momentum is what it used to be.

Freedom and religion endure together, or perish alone. --Mitt Romney

Reply To This — User Info — #4

John McCain by SIConservative

Romney spent the most time and money in all three states (correct me if I'm wrong about Wyoming), and he only won the one that nobody cared about. He bet all his chips to double down on eleven with a dealer ten showing and got a three. He could pull it out, but anyone who's played the game before would be standing up and reaching for his coat.

www.republicansenate.org

Reply To This — User Info — #5

McCain spent 8 years in New Hampshire. by Thunder

So, no, Romney didn't spend the most time in New Hampshire, McCain did. And McCain spent all of his money in New Hampshire. And While Huckabee and Romney were fighting Iowa, McCain was working on New Hampshire.

Reply To This — User Info — #6

Yes because we want a candidate the comes in 2nd by Joliphant

And outspends everyone else to do it.
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
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Reply To This — User Info — #7

You would rather third? or fourth? by qlangley

Romney has indeed come second in all the contests in which he has not come first. Every other candidate has a fourth or worse somewhere on their record.

Quentin Langley
Editor of http://www.quentinlangley.net

International Editor of

Reply To This — User Info — #8

Redstate