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Pew Poll: Republicans Cut Democratic Lead in Campaign's Final Days (down to 4% in Generic Ballot)
By kai2006 Comments (13) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
http://people-press.org/reports/print.php3? PageID=1100
Boom.
Republicans Cut Democratic Lead in Campaign's Final Days
Democrats Hold 47%-43% Lead Among Likely Voters
Released: November 5, 2006
Summary of Findings
FigureA nationwide Pew Research Center survey finds voting intentions shifting in the direction of Republican congressional candidates in the final days of the 2006 midterm campaign. The new survey finds a growing percentage of likely voters saying they will vote for GOP candidates. However, the Democrats still hold a 48% to 40% lead among registered voters, and a modest lead of 47%-43% among likely voters.
The narrowing of the Democratic lead raises questions about whether the party will win a large enough share of the popular vote to recapture control of the House of Representatives. The relationship between a party's share of the popular vote and the number of seats it wins is less certain than it once was, in large part because of the increasing prevalence of safe seat redistricting. As a result, forecasting seat gains from national surveys has become more difficult.
Correct Link
by Brad Smith
http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=295
Brad Smith
Professor of Law
Capital University Law School
Capital University website
Center for Competitive Politics website
Wow.
by A Texan
Great news. We'll see how Gallup pegs it tonight.
If they peg it at less than 5%, I think that control of the House becomes a toss-up.
"People will not look forward to posterity who never look backward to their ancestors." -Edmund Burke
in my opinion
by Dienekes
it was already a tossup between a narrow Dem win and a narrow Rep hold. now its a 3-way split between narrow Dem win, narrow Rep hold, and near status quo.
This is wonderful news
by AndrewRe
It's the second poll that's found this trend - the other being ABC News/Washington Post that found just a 6-point Dem lead. It's clear the races are tightening. My prayers are for the Republicans.
I have voted - have you?
Some perspective
by A Texan
In '04, final average was a dead heat, but Republicans won 53% of the seats.
If the final average (ABC/Pew/Gallup) show it at 4-5%, then, I think it's likely that the House will be close to evenly split.
Come on, Allen, Talent, Burns, and Steele. Bring it home.
"People will not look forward to posterity who never look backward to their ancestors." -Edmund Burke
If you Believe
by grapepul
The Drive By Media you need serious help.it was NEVER that big a difference they gin up the polls to depress Rep. Voters NOT GOING TO WORK!!!!!!!!!!!!!
the fewer seats the Dems have of winning. This whole election was predicated on a Democratic Wave and if the wave is not there, then they won't win. This election was never an election of ideas, and the electorate has not undergone an philosophical shift that would forecast a new governing style.
wow
by Ender
It's really getting more and more exciting. Thanks for the awesome news.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
You Must Vote!
by Marcus Traianus
Whatever the polls say, do not take anything for granted. Go vote and encourage your neighbors, drive them, whatever it takes.
"Dulce et decorum est pro patria mori"
There is some sign of movement
by qlangley
There is some sign of movement in all the generic questions: Presidential approval; Congressional approval; right direction/wrong direction.
I should stress all of these are still very negative, but the past few days do seem to have shown some movement to the GOP. You need to read the RCP average in detail to pick it up, but the signs are there. If they are confirmed in the CBS/NYT poll - I imagine they are doing another before the election - then the RCP will jump.
These generic questions are not strong indicators of voting intention, but they are LEADING indicators. They may show evidence of movement a few days before it is apparent in polls of individual races.
Quentin Langley
Editor of http://www.quentinlangley.net
This is really great news
by Carp
BUT... a word of caution. These numbers will matter only if conservatives go to the polls.
One more thing - Pew's turnout model suggests a 39-16 conservative to liberal voters in their survey. The 2004 election analyze showed this split as 34 conservative and 21 liberal.
Somehow I can't imagine republicans being more eager to vote this year than the loony left.
But as I said - the only poll that matters is on Tuesday. So, GOTV, GOTV and GOTV again.
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Here is the one you wanted:
http://people-press.org/reports/print.php3?%20PageID=1100
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