Redstate

By KurtLuidhardt Posted in 2008 | Spotlight Blogs — Comments (20) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

Promoted by Adam C - good, substantive local reporting on close races is high on our list of promotable material. This is a great example of RedState and its writers at their best. Note this election is on March 11th...

Indiana's 7th Congressional District (in the capitol city of Indianapolis) has long been a graveyard for good Republican candidates. Former Rep. Julia Carson acquired the seat after Representative Andy Jacobs retired in 1996. The reputed "Carson machine" defeated several strong and well-financed Republican candidates in '96, '98 and again after redistricting in 2002.

After dispatching those three opponents, Republicans gave up on the seat and allowed a former libertarian on a dismal budget to challenge Rep. Carson in '04 and then a car dealer in '06. However, both of these candidates saw increasing success against the Carson machine. Were it not for a series of nasty mail pieces and negative news stories about the '06 candidate, he may have defeated her. This was despite a non-existent budget and no support from the struggling Republican party organization in the county.

Rep. Carson's failing health was clearly partially responsible for her scare in the 2006 election. With every expectation she would be running for re-election in 2008, Republicans encouraged incumbent-killer State Representative Jon Elrod to challenge her. Championed because of his past ability to defeat entrenched Democrat incumbents (to my knowledge, he was the only Republican State Representative to defeat an incumbent Democrat in the Midwest during the disastrous 2006 cycle), optimism was growing that Republicans could defeat a crumbling Carson machine.

The opportunity seemed only more clear after little-known Republican Greg Ballard defeated Indianapolis Mayor Bart Peterson in the November General Election. This was despite being outspent 10 to 1.

However, Rep. Carson died in December 2007. The entire city mourned her. Republicans and Democrats both honored her for her service to the Indianapolis community.

Julia Carson's passing set up a special election to be held in March. Because the district has been considered a Democrat one (Kerry defeated President Bush by nearly 20 points in 2004), many Democrats wanted the seat. The Democrat caucus to select a candidate for the special election was contentious, with several Democrats vying for the seat. In the end, Democrats selected Julia Carson's grandson, Andre Carson, over several other prominent, local Democrats. The win was by just a few votes. You can go here to listen to many Democrats gasp and grumble after the results were announced.

Several Democrats have announced they already plan on challenging Mr. Carson in the regular Primary Election in May. One of them, State Representative David Orentlicher, has raised nearly $200,000 already for the effort.

This has opened up the seat for a possible Republican pick-up next month. Here's why I believe that this can be true:

1. Carson is being forced to run two campaigns simultaneously. In Indiana, the regular Primary takes place in May. Because of this, the victor in the special election must also win the May Primary in order to be on the ballot in November. While the Republicans have "cleared the field" for Jon Elrod, Democrats already have several candidates planning on challenging Carson in May. Carson is forced to consolidate his base in anticipation of the May Primary while also running a campaign against Jon Elrod.
2. Democrats eager to defeat Carson in May are seeking to weaken him by denying him victory in March. There is much talk locally about supporters of the Democrat challengers switching sides to vote for Elrod. This puts them in a better strategic position to defeat Carson (or keep him out of the race entirely) in May.
3. Carson has all the baggage that came with his grandmother, but none of the benefits. A poll released by a potential May contender has confirmed that despite running in a solid blue district, he is in a statistical tie with Rep. Elrod.
4. Even the DCCC has recognized Carson is highly vulnerable. A recent release by their organization confirms that they have taken the unprecedented step of designating a 20% Kerry district as part of their Red to Blue Program.
5. The 2007 Mayoral race and the candidacy of Rep. David Orentlicher is exacerbating the racial divide amongst the 7th district Democrats. The district is mostly comprised of the predominantly African American Center Township. The African American leaders of the Democrat party supported Carson in the Primary, demanding a minority Representative in the US House. However, the predominantly white party leadership, who helped elect the previous white Mayor for 2 election cycles, have been supporting Orentlicher. Race baiting, long a major tactic of the Democrat Party, is coming to roost in the 7th.
6. Finally, the local Republican party is energized after defeating Mayor Peterson in 2007. They, along with the State Republican Party, have been dumping a lot of time and resources into the May special election.

For all these reasons, Indiana's 7th should be on our radar. For those of you who are interested, you can support Rep. Elrod by contributing to his campaign here.

After Jim Ogonowski's great showing in Massachusetts, Republicans should be paying attention to these special elections. With support from the RightRoots, candidates like Jon Elrod can prevail.