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CPAC: Poll and PM Wrap-Up
By saul anuzis Posted in Archived — Comments (14) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
CPAC PM Wrap-Up
CPAC is wrapping up and the poll results are in:
Romney 21%
Giuliani 17%
Brownback 15%
Gingrich 14%
McCain 12%
Well, not exactly what everyone expected...but very interesting.
In the crosstabs, Romney won amongst economic conservatives, Giuliani won amongst strong defense conservatives and Brownback won amongst social conservatives.
I have to say, Romney clearly gave the strongest speech, and the results reflect that.
The suprise is Giuliani's strong showing among this crowd.
As I write, Newt Gingrich is ending this conference firing up the troops!
Overall, this was a great conference and encourage any conservative activist to consider coming in the future.
Homeward bound!
Saulius "Saul" Anuzis
Chairman
Michigan Republican Party
that is the message you get?
by David Hinz
the message I see, is that the man who has been running for the job since 1999 is in trouble1
Before it's brought up.
by 38585
How was this vote effected by Romney's "subsidizing" the cost of college students attending this event? Liz Mair, Pactrick Hynes, and other anti-Romney bloggers out there have already written this vote off (before CPAC begain).
Just wondering what others think about this.
"I think the fence is least effective. But I'll build the god--d fence if they want it."--McCain
"I would rather have a clean government than one where quote First Amendment rights are being respected" --McCain
Sounds to me
by FirstState
Sounds to me like they were trying to manage expectations, knowing Romney was going to win.
_________________________________________
First State Politics
They all sent people...
by RyanThompson
Romney paid for people like Brownback and McCain did.
This is good for Romney
by mar K
Straw Polls are about organization. Romney has a good enough organization to win. All within in the rules.
This is an early indication of how effect his campaign will be. No wonder Liz and Patrick are trying their best to throw cold water on it.
The message I get is that a
by swamp_yankee
The message I get is that a lot of the conservative vote is split amongst "third tier candidates". That poll doesnt even have Hunter, who has also been polling higher than expected. This leads me to believe that the Rudy and McCain campaigns are in more trouble than I orginally thought. Either a third tier candidate will rise from this field or the bulk of the voters supporting these candiates will fall in line behind Romney whose also has some momentum of his own.
Exactly
by fredo1
Rudy's in front right now, but if conservatives unite behind Romney, he might be able to win. None of the other candidates show viability at this point, and in the 2008 cycle, it's getting late early.
______________________________________
"Our job is to bash the president"
Newsweek's Evan Thomas, on the role of the MSM
...this was not a bad venue to meet girls. Being neither single nor college-aged, I merely pass on this information to those who might find it useful. :)
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC.
Not helpful Moe
by Darin H
I'm neither either, but might like to attend this event in the following years. We'll just NOT tell The Wife™ about the demographic makeup....
Two thirds of the world is covered by water, the other third is covered by Champ Bailey
Well, Well, Well,
by PolicyShift
Why does this not surprise me? About a year ago I said Mitt would be our nominee. I still think it. According to Dick Morris these guys have until Labor Day to get thier ducks in a row. That leaves them about 6 months. Lets see, McPain is dead in the water, Rudy is peaking too soon. I still like Mitt's chances. Should be interesting.
Good for Mitt, Good for Rudy
by qlangley
This is not exactly Rudy's crowd, if he is beating Brownback and Gingrich at CPAC think how he is doing among moderates.
Chris Cillizza suggested recently that even in South Carolina 30% of registered Republicans are pro-choice. (Don't know where he got that figure). If Rudy cleans up in that section and takes a slice of the social cons as well, it is a big enough plurality to win in a multi-candidate poll.
Good for Romney, too. He needs to convince people that he is the most conservative of the big 3, or big 2, judging by McCain's peformance here.
Quentin Langley
Editor of http://www.quentinlangley.net
International Editor of
I think we may be entering
by RyanThompson
I think we may be entering the era where the life issue does not way as much as before on Republican nominees. The amount of influence it has over the electorate has probably been over exaggerated.
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is that the base is split, and there really is no clear frontrunner. If Giuliani only gets 17% among the knowledgable members of the base, once name recognition evens out and his positions become more widely known, his lead in the polls should shrink. That's not to say he won't still be a strong contender. This race is going to be fun.
even if is a narrow plurality, big congrats to Gov. Romney for winning this poll!