AGW article full of contradictions

By scottbomb Posted in Comments (13) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

Everyone's talking about how cool last winter was, except of course for Algore. However, the high priest's disciples have taken note and they have a response.

You see, it's just temporary.

Global temperatures will drop slightly this year as a result of the cooling effect of the La Nina current in the Pacific, UN meteorologists have said.

The World Meteorological Organization's secretary-general, Michel Jarraud, told the BBC it was likely that La Nina would continue into the summer. This would mean global temperatures have not risen since 1998, prompting some to question climate change theory.

Blasphemy! The article is quick to turn to the "experts".

But experts say we are still clearly in a long-term warming trend - and they forecast a new record high temperature within five years.

The WMO points out that the decade from 1998 to 2007 was the warmest on record. Since the beginning of the 20th Century, the global average surface temperature has risen by 0.74C.

So.... the past 10 years have been warmer or cooler? Which is it? Nevermind the reports about faulty measurements. Even if they were credible, we're talking LESS THAN A DEGREE over 10 years. We're all gonna die!

Mr Jarraud told the BBC that the effect was likely to continue into the summer, depressing temperatures globally by a fraction of a degree.

This would mean that temperatures have not risen globally since 1998 when El Nino warmed the world.

Can these people PLEASE make up their minds?

A minority of scientists question whether this means global warming has peaked and argue the Earth has proved more resilient to greenhouse gases than predicted.

But Mr Jarraud insisted this was not the case and noted that 2008 temperatures would still be well above average for the century.

"When you look at climate change you should not look at any particular year," he said. "You should look at trends over a pretty long period and the trend of temperature globally is still very much indicative of warming.

Hmmm... Look at trends over a period of many years. Good idea, Mr. Jarraud! While we're at it, why don't we also examine trends over the past 1000 years? We'd surely get a more accurate picture, no? What was that, Mr. Jarraud? We can't talk about natural warming and cooling cycles over such a great length of time?

La Nina is part of what we call 'variability'. There has always been and there will always be cooler and warmer years, but what is important for climate change is that the trend is up; the climate on average is warming even if there is a temporary cooling because of La Nina.

El Nino and La Nina. Those two lovebirds just need to get a room.

The lesson I take away from the article is this: If it seems to be cooler lately, we must brush it off as nonsense because the trends over the past couple of decades show that it's not going to last. After all, we must recognize the natural cycles of warming and cooling. Fair enough. But when someone points out the long-term cycles over a period of several centuries, which proves AGW to be a hoax, we're expected to just ignore it.

www.scottbomb.com

Edit title. by Socrates

--
Gone 2500 years, still not PC.

"After two years in Washington, I often long for the realism and sincerity of Hollywood." -Fred Dalton Thompson

Ah, yes. Thank you. by scottbomb

I was half awake when I wrote that this morning.

www.scottbomb.com

Ditto n.t. by dmajors

nt

But experts say we are still clearly in a long-term warming trend - and they forecast a new record high temperature within five years.

The WMO points out that the decade from 1998 to 2007 was the warmest on record. Since the beginning of the 20th Century, the global average surface temperature has risen by 0.74C.

So.... the past 10 years have been warmer or cooler? Which is it? Nevermind the reports about faulty measurements. Even if they were credible, we're talking LESS THAN A DEGREE over 10 years. We're all gonna die!

That's less than a degree over the last one hundred and ten years.

Isn't Water responsible for 95% of the green house gas effect? Talk about getting your 80 for your 20, or rather 5 for your 95.

Like from 1940 to 1965 when CO2 was rising ...

And global temperatures were falling ... ???

How is that possible if CO2 is the only factor in global warming ?

Thw AGW folks are running out of time ... they see that it has peaked and they are desperatly trying to get anything implemented so they can say LOOK we reversed global warming with our plan ...

A big con to destroy American ... as are most big L liberal ideas today ... they don't beleive any of this stuff, its just good ammo in their fight to bring down America ...

Huh? by garhighway1

Quote: "A big con to destroy American (sic)... as are most big L liberal ideas today ... they don't beleive (sic) any of this stuff, its just good ammo in their fight to bring down America ..."

Care to source that for us? Or are you one of those "anyone who disagrees with me is by definition a traitor" types?

Gar

A comparison by pliny

Most people believe stock prices are in a long-term uptrend, driven by the fundamentals of economic growth. The fact that the Dow reached a high point in Jan 2000, which it did not reach again until late 2006, and even dipped below that peak last month, does not detract from this. Many other things affect prices.

Most scientists accept the IPCC view that global temperatures are in an uptrend, driven by the fundamental greenhouse effect nett heat inflow of about 2 W/m2. The fact that there was a big el Nino in 1998, and a la Nina this year, also does not alter the fundamentals.

Seeing as they tend to have parabolic trajectories over their lifetime. They rise inflect and decline. Individual stocks behave much the same way.

If you really want to argue the case I can give you a nice deal on some lovely Tulips Bulbs.


"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

FAIL by Socrates

Like most naturalist analogies, there is a fundamental flaw in your reverse-nature modeling of the climate by the stock market. Even though both of them are systems of many variables and great complexity, each of the individual elements of the stock market is pushing for increase, and there is nothing stopping all of them from increasing at once. There is no system-wide negative feedback.

The climate, on the other hand, has a handful of "drivers", these gases, and a whole slough of negative feedback mechanisms, such as radiation and increased cloud cover.

That's not to say those negative mechanisms will keep it cool, though golly, something seems to be doing that. It's just to kick the legs out from your analogy.

--
Gone 2500 years, still not PC.

Tim Schieferecke

something about AGW before we hit the tipping point that makes it impossible for us to save ourselves thereafter.

I can't say with absolute certainty if the "scientists" that insist AGW is a fact and that there is universal consensus on it are correct....... or if all those other "scientists" (the ones who don't exist according to the first group)who insist that AGW is bunk are correct.

But I can say this with absolute personal certainty. I've survived the last 25 years as a cop in some pretty nasty neighborhoods on occasion, because I've got a pretty good BS detector. And the AGW crowd pegs it into the red with sirens screaming.

All supporting AGW theory does for me is put your name on a list of people that I am going to from that point on inherently not trust on just about any given subject.... and CERTAINLY would not vote for.


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