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Some Early Voting Numbers

Michael McDonald, an Associate Professor of Political Science at George Mason University and one of the nation’s top experts on voter turnout, has created a web page to keep track of early voting data provided by states.  Important Caveat: This is a toy! Early voting has barely begun.  Do not take the data too seriously!

Not all states report data by party.  Right now, Professor McDonald has partisan breakdown data on early voting for Iowa, Maine, North Carolina.  Note that these are not actual votes – merely the registration data for those casting early ballots.  Democrats may vote for Republicans, and vice versa.

In Iowa, the breakdown of voter registration for ballots returned so far this year is 42.1% Democratic, 28.9% Republican, and 28.9% Independent.  In 2008, final early voting registration in Iowa broke 46.9% Democratic, 28.9% Republican, and 24.2% other.  Those numbers are for ballots returned.  According to the Chicago Tribune, the Democrats also have a narrower margin this year in ballots requested by their registered voters than they have had in past in early voting. 

In Maine, the breakdown on ballots returned so far this year, by party registration, is 36.3% Democratic, 37.6% Republican, 24.5% Independent, and 1.5% Green.  In 2008, the final count on early voting, by registration, was 41.1% Democratic to 27.7% Republican and 31.2% other.

In North Carolina, the breakdown on ballots returned by party registration so far is 42.2% Democratic, 40.2% Republican, and 17.5% Independent.  This compares to a 2008 breakdown of 55.9% Democratic, 27.1% Republican, and 17.0% Independent. 

There are several other states that ultimately report early voting data by party registration, but they’ve not yet checked in.

Again, these numbers really are just for fun.  I wouldn’t put much stock in them as a harbinger of forthcoming Republican success, and if they turn south, I wouldn’t worry much, at least not until a lot more votes are in.  But they’re fun to look at nevertheless.

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COMMENTS

  • The_Rebel

    back up a lot of the polling we have seen over the last couple of months.

    For starters, the Democrat breakdown for early balloting shows decreases of 4.8%, 4.8%, and 13.7%, respectively. This shows less enthusiasm among them, while Republican ballot returns are up substantially except in Iowa where they are flat. And some of the Dems could certainly be voting for the Republican. I am a bit surprised that the Independents are not showing more enthusiasm, but true to their beliefs, they probably are waiting to the end to make sure they don’t miss any late breaking stories.

    In checking the GMU web page, some additional points can be gleaned from the North Carolina data. The percentage of black ballots returned is 14.6%, which is far less than the 21.6% of blacks in the total population. Again, seems to be a lack of enthusiasm. And voters aged 45 and above have returned 85% of the total ballots thus far, and that group is very upset with Obamacare. And the older the population, usually the more conservative it gets. Finally, males were 2 points ahead of females, and we know the male population is more Republican.

    The more people that vote early the worse it will be for any Dems planning a late October “surprise”

    Anyway, thanks for this diary and for the link that we can follow in the days ahead to uncover additional tidbits leading to the tsunami of November 2. It is fun, but it is also indicative of trends.

    • The_Rebel

      The total 2008 early voting in North Carolina by blacks was 26.5% of the total. It’s a little early, but that is almost double the 14.6% to date. There is no Obama on the ballot this year!

    • The_Rebel

      The GMU site now has statistics on Clarke and Washoe Counties. The total vote thus far represents about 4% of the total early vote in 2008 in each county. The Dems % of the early vote is 47.2% vs 52% for the final 2008 early vote in Clarke county, and is 40.6% vs 47.1% in Washoe county. Republicans are 37.9% vs 30.6%, and 46% vs 35.3%, respectively. Independent early voting as a percentage of the total are down in both counties from the final 2008 numbers.

      Those two counties represented almost 90% of the Nevada total 2008 vote for President, both of which Obama won overwhelmingly. How those two counties go, especially Clarke, will tell us what happens to Harry Reid. I would like to see polling for Clarke county alone for a harbinger of what we can expect on November 2. Obama won that county by 20 points.