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John Thune – The Next American President

Something is happening in the heartland.  And those who consider themselves to be purveyors of political wisdom would be well served to sit up and take notice:  South Dakota Senator John Thune (R) is starting to emerge as a political cyclone.

At this point, most Americans are familiar with John Thune only as a result of his 2004 shocking upset of (then) U.S. Senate Minority Leader, Tom Daschle, in the South Dakota Senate race.  Thune, a proponent of term limits who had previously served 3 terms in the U.S. House of Representatives – and who declined to run for a 4th because he had promised voters he would not (novel concept) – showed tremendous fundraising prowess on a national level in defeating Daschle in 2004.  According to Politico, the Thune people already have a fundraising list of over 100,000 donors as a result of that campaign.  Couple that with the fact that Thune currently enjoys a 70% approval rating among South Dakota voters, and he appears to be unbeatable in his home state.  In fact, six years after defeating Daschle, Thune is up for re-election and Democrats, seemingly sensing the inevitable, have declined to oppose him this time around.

You wouldn’t know that Senator Thune is unopposed in November by his fundraising activities, though.  As of April 1, 2010, Thune had a campaign war chest in excess of $6.5 million, and it’s still growing.  Thune has been on a torrent pace over the past several months – attending events around the country, shaking hands and raising money in support of other conservative candidates.  A recent Washington Post article by Chris Cillizza highlights the fact that the South Dakota Senator will begin to “raise his national profile” by attending some key conservative functions in Maryland and North Carolina this month.  All the while, the quiet, steadily rising tide of “Thune 2012″ supporters continues to swell on Facebook, Twitter and beyond.

At a moment in time when the conservative movement is yearning for that pragmatic, plain-spoken, charismatic leader who can connect with people (the way Reagan did), and effectively (and unabashedly) communicate the conservative message, the man and the hour are about to meet.  Consider the facts…

1.  Obama will be imminently beatable in 2012. What once seemed inconceivable, has become reality.  Independents are jumping ship on Obama and the Democrats in droves.  While it is impossible to predict what may happen between now and November of 2012 to “sway” the voters in one direction or another, one thing is certain – the American conservative movement is in the midst of a renaissance.  This movement is real – there is nothing false, artificial or trendy about the desire of Americans to get their nation’s financial house in order.  Democrats, led by Obama, have overreached in their lust for more federal control over the everyday lives of Americans, and Americans are pushing back in a major way.  The “Stimulus Bill” has failed and healthcare reform was a disaster for Democrats.  While, in the end, Obama was able to convince Democrats to “walk the plank” for Obamacare, Americans felt violated over the way in which Democrats arrogantly thumbed their noses at the voters throughout the whole process.  The voters will not forget – not now and certainly not by 2012.

2.  The Republican field is ripe for the picking. With the exception of (possibly) Sarah Palin, no potential Republican nominee has been able to electrify and unify conservatives.  This was a problem for Republicans in 2008 when John McCain received the nomination by default.  Result? President Obama and super-majorities for Democrats in both houses of Congress.  Don’t look for Republicans to make the same mistake again.  After 4 full years of “Obamanation,Republicans will be looking for a dynamic, strong leader with broad appeal.  Newt Gingrich?  Tim Pawlenty?  Mike Huckabee?  Probably not.  Mitt Romney?  While he certainly has the executive experience and economic credentials, the former Massachusetts Governor will be hard-pressed to make it out of the Republican primary with the albatross of “RomneyCare” hanging around his neck – oh, and don’t forget the fact that he couldn’t even beat McCain in 2008.  Conservatives are desperate for that unusual combination of substance, charisma and leadership that seems to have eluded them on the national level since Reagan.  Enter John Thune.  Exhibit A:

3.  The Palin Factor. What about the former Alaska Governor and 2008 VP-Candidate, Sarah Palin?  A year ago, she seemed to be the heir apparent to the Republican throne.  Through a series of her own decisions, though, beginning with her resignation announcement over last year’s July 4th holiday, Sarah Palin seems content now playing the role of “King Maker” rather than King (err, Queen).  There is no question that, outside of Obama himself, Sarah Palin is one of the most polarizing figures in American politics today.  This alone, coupled with the absolute smear job that the media outlets and the goons at Saturday Night Live have perpetrated upon Palin, will make it difficult for her to win in 2012.  Plus, one just gets the sense that she’s not too in love with the idea of running for President at this point in her life. And frankly, who could blame her?

For his part, John Thune continues to deflect questions about his prospects of running for President in 2012, sticking to what has become his standard, canned response that he’s “focused on doing everything [he] can to help Republicans gain majorities in the House and Senate in 2010.”  The lifelong South Dakotan seems to have embraced his role as the “dark horse” candidate for now, content to sit back in true midwestern style and let all the dust settle before rolling up his sleeves and getting to work.  As Oliver Cromwell once said, “Keep your powder dry.”  Up until this point, Thune has had the powder in dry storage under lock and key.  But soon, very soon, the lock is comin’ off.  The door will open.  And John Thune will emerge.

COMMENTS

  • conservativechic

    And yet Obama got elected as POTUS. The American People require different credentials than just executive experience, Political “experience” is not always a good thing in Washington these days, Thus far, I really like what I see with John Thune. Hopefully, he will be one of the many outstanding choices we have in 2012. Right now, he’d have my vote. Thune-Ryun?

    • acat

      For instance, someone who joined Red State 3 months ago, wrote no diaries, and left no comments has experience – joining – but not the right experience – getting into the debate and maybe adding something to it.

      Citing Obama’s lack of experience as a reason why it’s okay for Thune to have a similar lack is .. well, chutzpah doesn’t begin to cover it. Obama had the media covering for him, and still couldn’t have won had McCain not been such a dismal candidate.

      I think the genius in Thune is in ignoring the conventional wisdom of the impossible odds – but that does not mean he knows how to get things done, and in the aftermath of Obama we certainly need someone who knows how to get things done at the *top* of the ticket.

      I could see Pawlenty-Thune, although Pawlenty isn’t terribly popular around here, or maybe Jindahl-Thune. That’s a better Northern-Southern mix …

      Mew

      • http://BrentTeichman.wordpress.com Brent Teichman

        I readily admit (and have said above) that the lack of executive experience is one mark against Thune. However, I don’t accept the premise that the next POTUS must have executive experience. Sure, that would probably make Thune the ideal, perfect candidate; but I don’t believe such a thing exists.

        My point is this – having surveyed the field of prospective candidates, and taking into consideration ALL of the important factors (i.e. conservative voting record, electability, charisma, good moral character, etc), John Thune is the best bet out there for conservatives. If you could pick between John Thune (with NO executive experience) and Mitt Romney (with plenty), who would you pick?

        All things considered, Thune is it. Thanks for the discussion. I appreciate the comments.

        • red_oakster

          Show me a way Thune wins or finishes a strong second in Iowa and I’ll believe it. To do that, he will need Palin not to run, and finish behind Huckabee and ahead of Romney and Pawlenty in Iowa. He also will need a field without any additional social conservatives (Pence for example). That’s highly unlikely.

          Thune’s candidacy is an inside straight flush, akin to Hatch in 2000 or Kemp in 1988. Don’t bet the rent money.

          • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

            Iowa tends not to pick winners of Republican nominations.

            New Hampshire is only slightly less bad at it.

          • acat

            Neither one is about the candidates except in a negative way – a big unforced error (Dean’s scream) can end it all.

            What they’re really about is showing whether Candidate X can build or attract an effective campaign staff. They’re not really about who’s best, just whose boots on the ground are most effective.

            Mew

        • acat

          Thune or Romney?

          Romney would be a great .. well, I can’t really improve on LaborUnionReport’s quip above.

          Thune is vastly superior to Romney, simply by not being Romney.

          There are, however, a number of other potentials out there.

          I expect Huckabee to run again. I’d rather he just retire and teach the grandkids how to play guitar – populism is not what’s needed – but I expect he’ll get in and, unlike Romney, I could support Huck for dogcatcher.

          Palin I would vote for in the general, but not the primary, and I really hope she doesn’t run. 2012 is the perfect time for her to get “inside DC” as a cabinet member. (and watch the Lib heads explode..) for either a 2016 or 2020 run.

          Pawlenty has shown some balls in Minnesota, a traditionally blue state, and has used the power of the Executive branch to effectively neuter the budget passed by the legislature.

          Jindal has a tough row to hoe in Louisiana, but – talking to a friend from New Orleans at a wedding recently – it sounds like the cleanup is underway. As he put it, every time a big contract is issued, Democrats go to jail. It would be sad for Louisiana if Jindal left before the job was done, but he’d be a good one to follow Obama.

          Christie is taking on a state that’s arguably more blue than Louisiana and Minnesota – and is going to the mat with the union interests. I think he’d have a harder time attracting the Religious Right, but with the right veep and message, it could work.

          So, if you want to take any of the above point by point, that’d be fine.

          Mew

          • http://BrentTeichman.wordpress.com Brent Teichman

            Huckabee is one of those dudes you’d like to sit around a campfire with and listen to him pick the banjo while Suzie sings “Go Tell it on the Mountain.” I think Huckabee has a heart of solid gold, but he doesn’t have the broad appeal (outside of “The Villages”) to be able to get elected POTUS.

            Palin – see my original post. I don’t think she’s seriously interested in running for POTUS (nor would she win). She is an ideal Secretary of Energy (H/T Jackie Seal). That would drive the Left absolutely “bat shit” crazy.

            Pawlenty is a real affable guy. I agree with you that he has shown some stones in Blue Minnesota, but, like Huckabee, he lacks the broad “X-factor” – or the “it” as thegoodfight puts it – to have the broad appeal necessary to win (I am, after all, about winning in 2012).

            Jindal is the only “executive” that even has a shot (in my humble opinion). He did himself NO favors with that disastrous “Republican Response” to B.O.’s State of the Union Address last year. TOTAL disaster, that was…but I do like what he’s done in Louisiana, and if he decided to run (and if he could overcome that “deer-in-the-headlights” response aforementioned), he may pose a real threat to Thune, but still…I just don’t see it.

            Christie is John Wayne. That dude has a set like none other, but he’s been the governor of NJ for all of 6 months? And I don’t really believe he has any serious aspirations to higher office at this point in time. I do love that guy, though.

            So again – I simply come back to this: Given ALL of the tangibles, intangibles, etc., I keep coming back to John Thune. I see no reasonable (or viable) alternative…

          • acat

            You asked my opinion, I gave it to you.

            Time will prove one of us wrong.

            Mew

  • http://www.theminorityreportblog.com/blog/loren_heal Socrates

    Whether he gets it well enough to be a leader remains to be seen. For now I like that he’s pushing 2010.

  • proudgop

    I don’t think anyone should worry about 2012 until after 2010 elections

    As for Senator Thune he has two goals as far as I am concerned: help oust Herseth with whoever GOP nominee is and help Republicans in surrounding states

  • brandalynn

    I love that he’s urging everyone to focus on 2010 first, but I agree completely with you with respect to the fact that he’s “keepin the powder dry.” John Thune is a candidate I could get behind in a big, BIG way – Thune-Pence 2012!

  • acat

    Thune first chose to go after a left-leaning politician whose national-driven agenda was in conflict with his state. (Daschle)

    While conventional wisdom may have declared this to be a tough race, by tying Daschle down to the Dem nationwide agenda, it became merely expensive, and Thune could count on nationwide support.

    Thune is at a similar “disadvantage” in targeting Obama. Conventional wisdom holds that Obama has the money and the alliances to squeak out a win, much as Bush 2.0 did. Obama will also likely still have willing sycophants in the Mainly Stupid Media.

    The real problems I see for Thune are twofold. First, he isn’t really known outside South Dakota. The media could quite effectively work against him there, especially if the internet muzzles have any effect at all. Second, the visible lack of executive experience could work against Thune.

    I’d say Thune would make an outstanding veep, although I don’t know about him as a top slot guy.

    Mew

  • http://BrentTeichman.wordpress.com Brent Teichman

    I agree with you that his one downfall is the lack of executive experience, but that can be easily overcome by a VP w/ strong executive credentials (i.e. Mitch Daniels, Rick Perry or maybe even Romney), and the selection of a strong cabinet and group of advisers. The next 2 election cycles (’10 & ’12) are going to be unlike anything any of us have ever seen. I think the “conventional wisdom” goes out the window…Thanks for the comment, BTW!

  • acat

    The simpler one first – I will never support Romney for anything. Not even dog catcher. Romney is not good veep material. He’s not good at the kind of red-meat-tossing Cheney was noted for, and although he may manage to bring Utah with him, Romney’s penchant for making the wrong choices (endorsing Bennett, forex) is just not what the ticket needs.

    The more important point is that the executive has to be the top guy. Executive experience is not something that can be added in by the Veep. I might accept a case where the chief-of-staff is a former Governor – but that wouldn’t work very well on the campaign trail. Look how well Biden has augmented Obama’s foreign policy, and you’ll see what I mean – that’s what Plugs was brought into the campaign to do – foreign policy – and it’s been an abject failure.

    Once more, in my opinion, Thune would make an outstanding Vice President – but he’s aiming a little high.

    Mew

  • http://www.laborunionreport.combrand/brhttp://www.laborunionreport.blogspot.com LaborUnionReport
  • SteveLA

    It is a well know realfact that Mitt is a Robot, with perfect hair.

  • Richard Mullins
  • http://impudent.blognation.us/blog kyle8

    you keep killing him, but he just keeps coming back.

  • thegoodfight

    meaning he has what it takes to get elected. Brent defined “it” clearly. While Palin electrifies us, Thune has the ability to solidify us. Huckabee, Romney, Pawlenty, Jindl, Ryan, Perry, none of the others have it. And if you don’t have “it” you aren’t going to beat Obama. Period.

  • looneythune

    While a liberal, I agree wholeheartedly with your political analysis
    of the 2012 election cycle. I think a John Thune 2012 ticket is
    inevitable and really the only shot the GOP has–though I do think
    Obama will eek out a win and then the next President will be John
    Huntsman. I really foresee a Thune/Rubio ticket, or at least a
    Huntsman/Rubio ticket. I also do not think Palin wants to run–I’ve
    in fact written a blog all about Thune which includes Palin’s desire
    to kingmake, rather than be the ruler. Check out my site:
    LooneyThune.com. It’s devoted to all things John Thune 2012, and
    everything right now!

  • Martin Knight
  • Common_Cents

    Electing senators is a dead end road, look at the current one. Senators are good at campaigning and talking, that’s about it. Give me a governor or outside successful business person that picks a VP that’s knows their way around DC.