When it comes to political analysis, there are few more insightful than Michael Barone. His latest piece points up this fascinating indication of just how much of the bloom has gone off the Obama rose. Barone notes that Obama’s current lead in the polls is due almost entirely to his lead among young voters, and then points out that those young voters have become a lot less enthusiastic over the last few months:
There’s no question that enthusiasm for Obama has come down since it became clear over the last few months that he’s just a man. But the drop in enthusiasm among young voters and Democrats is startling. If you then contrast it with the steadiness of the number for Republican voters — who are supposed to be dispirited about their candidate and their prospects — Democrats have real reason to be worried.
Read the rest of Barone’s piece for a list of target states that McCain might be able to swing to his column based on his advantage over Obama among older voters:
If it makes sense for McCain to work to turn out older voters—a big if, and this group usually turns out pretty well anyhow—then there are more targets among these heavily over-60 states for McCain than there are in heavily under-30 states for Obama: Florida (27 electoral votes), Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes), Iowa (7 electoral votes), South Dakota (3 electoral votes), Montana (3 electoral votes), and North Dakota (3 electoral votes). Not what I would have guessed before I ran the numbers.
If McCain can win Pennsylvania in particular, the math becomes far more problematic for Obama.
You make some good points Brian....
Susannah Thursday, July 24th at 1:39PM EDT (link)Particularly about the drop-off in enthusiasm of young voters for Obama. This might actually be a signal that the tide is turning in McCain’s favor (although I don’t want to get my hopes over-inflated.
This confirms what I see and hear every day!
Vegas_Rick Thursday, July 24th at 1:57PM EDT (link)I haven’t found a single person, other than a few hard core “facts be damned” lefties, who don’t have serious doubts about Obama.
Here’s my prediction: If Obama wins, it will be very close. If McCain wins, it’s a blow out, landslide, butt thumpin’.
I’m not predicting a McCain win, we have a lot of work to do. But if he does, I see him winning big.
That’s my theory and I’m sticking to it!
“Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful people with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent. The slogan ‘press on’ has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race.” Calvin Coolidge.
"This is not the same Barack Obama I thought I knew in February."
spainishirish Thursday, July 24th at 3:55PM EDT (link)Good work. Recommended. When this election is analyzed, it will be painfully obvious that Obama won enough contests in the first half of his party’s primary to frighten Superdelegates into his corner, but lost the second half so badly they almost grew a pair and didn’t go there.
I have never been sold that Obama would win the general election, and it looks less likely each day. Would I bet the farm one way or the other? No. Would I bet a few bucks on Intrade? I have, and could realize a nice return.
"Just what I thought would happen."
patrioticdale Friday, July 25th at 8:54PM EDT (link)The drop off of young voters is what I expected and hoped for. I can still remember back when I was young and pumped up over a presidental canidate. But something happened between July and November; it could have been a girlfriend or something else entirely. I never voted that year and it seemed like having to wait another four years seemed like a long long time. Losing this demographic could easily lose the election to McCain. We can only hope.
I'm waiting for the Obama campaign to
mbecker908 Friday, July 25th at 9:59PM EDT (link)hold rallies at high schools and to provide buses from school to polling places for the brain-dead little fools.
Recommended
itrytobenice Saturday, July 26th at 1:04AM EDT (link)In the New RS 3.0 way. Which means I left you this nifty little comment.
The problem with America is stupidity. I’m not saying there should be capital punishment for stupidity, but why don’t we just take the safety labels off of everything and let the problem solve itself?
The Roe effect in young states dooms
Mike gamecock DeVine Saturday, July 26th at 1:38AM EDT (link)Obama. Notice how all the states with large numbers of young people are mostly republican states (with the few that are Dem states not in play).
The left has aborted their electoral dreams of a leftist Utopia.
Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com, Charlotte Observer and The Minority Report columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” - Andrew Jackson
I can't believe Barone's blog is not on my Roll..
$peciallist Saturday, July 26th at 1:50AM EDT (link)I’ll do that this weekend.
Now that debate is over
Mike gamecock DeVine Saturday, July 26th at 1:52AM EDT (link)too!
Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com, Charlotte Observer and The Minority Report columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” - Andrew Jackson
And recomended..nightwister your going Down!
$peciallist Saturday, July 26th at 1:53AM EDT (link)n/t
HAHAHAH
obamanation Saturday, July 26th at 2:33AM EDT (link)You red state necons can only HOPE that the young people will turn against Obama. You are as sadly in the 50’s as your old fart candidate. HAHAHA..this election will be a blow out of epic proportion with “grandpa” McBush {recdacted} in his pampers by December. I have personally made sure my two young sons (who support Obama in ‘08) not only VOTE…but make sure their friends VOTE Obama in ‘08. McBush is DONEZO!!!!!! HAAHAH
And this also…..Obama willl change this nation in such a positive way that your party will be sucking hind teet for at least 10yrs…..you squandered the good will of the middle class pushing the loser BUSH our way, and we gonna bite YOU in the ASS folk! Get ready…we’re gonna taste some!
And I DARE U Neocons to post this!!!
obamanation Saturday, July 26th at 2:48AM EDT (link)Obama is going to win, and I mean BIG! This man is on the fast track because he has ALL media focusing on HIM, why? because his message is on point and speaks to the American condition TODAY. Obama and his ideas will be FAR more palatable than McBush’s simply because he offers a different direction. Are the neocons loyal to Bush so stupid as to believe that they can stick to an absurdly corrupt and failing policy and still garner public support? To common folks (as much as you despise us) this isn’t a Bush-Kerry election…..you won’t be able to rig this one…this is McBush-OBAMA…….SO out of the park that if you even TRY to force on us the losing candidate you will face the a public outcry like you have never seen since the 1st American revolution……it’s time for REVOLUTION America!
OBAMA! 08!!!!!!!!
I got 5 bucks left over from Campland...
$peciallist Saturday, July 26th at 2:51AM EDT (link)I want to give it ALL to Obama.
Media Focus
Trelaina Saturday, July 26th at 6:02AM EDT (link)This man is on the fast track because he has ALL media focusing on HIM, why?
Because the media, fresh off a direct infusion of liberal kool-aid, are on a mission to get a democrat elected. They want to be able to say THEY are the reason Obama won.
If they can push Obama to a win, they think their influence will grow.
And all they have to do is convince the uneducated and unbalanced that Obama is a god. See, they have you in the tank already….
“I would be a poor Commander in Chief”
– Barack Obama, July 3 2008
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It was almost a shame to redact out the swear word...
Moe Lane Saturday, July 26th at 7:26AM EDT (link)…in its way, this rant has a certain elegant simplicity to its stupidity.
Moe Lane
PS: There’s a particularly good howler in the fellow’s text; when you see it, I ask that you not point it out. Merely chuckle at it, and fondly marvel that we’re just so cool as a country that we can actually afford the luxury of letting people like this vote.
Check out my new blog at http://moelane.com/.
http://twitter.com/moelane
My (blogging-related) wish list.
The only thing you will be tasting in Nov
BooBooKitty Saturday, July 26th at 7:48AM EDT (link)will be the great gobsmack of reality that your party tried to run a candidate who’s only qualification for office was an adoring press and less than half a term in the Senate.
_________________
Thou art the Great Cat, the avenger of the Gods, and the judge of words…-Inscription on the Royal Tombs at Thebes
Re: And I DARE U Neocons to post this!!! - obamanation
John Steele Saturday, July 26th at 7:59AM EDT (link)OK, now what? Cookies? Milk? Nap time? What?
John - Miami
KJ4NSE
Member NRA | GOA | SAF | ARRL
———-
Why would God invent something like whiskey? To keep the Irish from ruling the world of course.
No, jSteele, if I remember my childhood correctly,
janis Saturday, July 26th at 8:21AM EDT (link)“I double-dog dare you” comes before cookies and naptime, which in this case, will probably be also accompanied by thumbsucking, “blanky holding” and lots of rocking.
I’ve always loved your sig line, by the way.
Obaminus Vobiscum!
streetwise Saturday, July 26th at 8:42AM EDT (link)We praise HIM for HIS glory, for verily Obama is the Son of God!
Post this!
IndependentfrMI Saturday, July 26th at 8:45AM EDT (link)Obamamessiah will givith and he will takeith away. If the media told you the alliens were landing in Washington DC you would sell your soul to worship them just like you’re selling your soul to Obama. He is not the presidential hopeful you presume, nor the messiah the media likes to put forth. The proof is in the replys of his campaign. Don’t question anything he says don’t questions his policies, (not his but his cronies from past Dem pres) don’t questions his motives just shut up and follow. If you dare to bring up anything he has said or done you must be a facist or a neuocon even a racist.
Darer, when was the MSM not all in for a Dem?
Mike gamecock DeVine Sunday, July 27th at 5:45PM EDT (link)NEVER!!!!!!!
Yet, Dems have only won 2 of the past 7.
Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com, Charlotte Observer and The Minority Report columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” - Andrew Jackson
You say you want a revolution, well, you know...
ThreeNineNine Monday, July 28th at 5:37PM EDT (link)we all wanna change the world. You tell me that it’s evolution, well, you know… we all wanna change the world. But when you talk about destruction, don’t you know that you can count me out.
The rest of the song also kind of bears true… replace Chairman Mao with something.
Break His-word Obama is going down.