“Blue” states with Republican Governors:

CA - will almost certainly revert to the Dems, most probably with (IMO) Villaraigosa (with likely disastrous results! can’t wait!!)
HI - no clue, but I’ve got to think the Dems will take it back
RI - from what I understand, the GOP actually has a viable candidate to replace Carcieri, so we actually have a shot at this one
CT - again, no clue, but a likely Dem take-back
MN - while MN is getting more and more purple (even more purple that WI - look at this year’s Presidential votes), I’ve got to think the Dems have the edge here
VT - Douglas will be back, so we hold

Dems: Gain back 4-5

“Red” states with Dem Governors:

KS - GOP has deeper bench, so I’ve got to think it’s a take-back
OK - no clue (hopefully a local can provide some perspective)
TN - I know we have some good prospective candidates, and I’ve got to think the GOP has the edge
WY - I’d be shocked if the Dems pulled off WY twice: almost a certain take-back
AR - I’m going to give the Dems the edge here, as they have a much deeper local bench
CO - Ritter’s running for reelection - unless CO’s economy collapses, I’ll assume he has the edge
IA - Culver’s running for reelection, but I suppose he might be beatable in a down economy
NH - NH is a blue state now - forget it
OH - it’s hard to beat an incumbent: it will take a truly horrible economy to knock off Strickland; theoretically possible, but unlikely

GOP: Gain back 3-4

So, to make up ground, the GOP is going to have to win Governorships in blue states. I think we need to start by looking at NY and IL.

because it will be even harder for the suckiness of the democrats to be hidden.
Look at how things are already going:
The Illinois Governor, and now Bill Richardson.
And if anyone thinks Hillary is well qualified to be SoS, I have a bridge to sell them.
And hiring AGW true beleivers to run energy and environment assures not only failed polices but locks of ticked off voters.

The GOP needs a platform - and right now it doesn’t have one. 1994 didn’t happen solely because Clinton overreached and the public freaked with liberals in control of everything - Gingrich and Armey gave people a positive program to vote FOR. Right now, all the “stars aligning” will be pointless without a serious effort beginning now to put together an alternative platform both as a response to Democrats and as a proactive reason to vote for Republicans.

While things might be advantageous at the governor level, they will be horrific at the national level. Democrats have a serious shot, even without Al Franken, to get a VETO-proof majority in the Senate, and are almost guaranteed a filibuster-proof sixty seats. Right now even our most serious A-list challengers will have a tough climb against popular incumbents even in red states (why ditch your powerful Democratic senator - say a chairman of Budget or Finance for a minroity senator without even a possibility to filibuster), and Republicans will defend both more seats overall in 2010 and more seats in vulnerable states than Democrats.

The GOP will have to spend money defending Florida, Kansas (if Sebleius runs - logic be damned she still seems to be popular), Ohio, Kentucky (both of which might see retirements), Iowa (Grassley could retire or face a stiff challenge), probably Missouri (which is traditionally tough anyway and Bond may not run again), North Carolina (Burr holds that seat that hasn’t seen an incumbent re-elected since Sam Ervin won re-election for the final time in 1968), New Hampshire (while Gregg is popular enough the Democrats now have a bench to field a candidate there), and Pennsylvania (where Specter may not run again, will probably face another primary challenge, and will certainly be challenged in the general).

The only serious race the GOP has cued up right now is against Harry Reid in Nevada, which is more blue than it used to be and where the GOP governor is under investigation, the Lt. Gov. is under indictment and the strongest option in the congressional delegation just lost. Even with an A-lister, North Dakota is a 50-50 shot. Bayh is insanely popular in Indiana. We might have an outside shot at Hawaii if we both get a retirement from Inouye and convince Linda Lingle to run. Obama picking Salazar for the Cabinet would be the best thing to happen to us - we’d at least have a shot at that seat against an appointee. The rest of the Democrat seats are either in safe blue states or are in occupied by popular incumbents in blue leaning states (CA, NY, IL, MD, WA, VT, OR, CT, WI). Lincoln in Arkansas is the exception - but she’s pretty popular and I’m not sure if there’s even a Republican in the state who can win that race - even Huckabee probably is only even money to win.

Governors can only do so much in the face of a federal government that is more than happy to take more and more power away from states in favor of federal programs, regulations, mandates and control. The only good thing is that we’ll be guaranteed a seat at the table when it’s time to redistrict (though fat lot of good that does in terms of Senate seats).

Not to mention too early in its prognostications.

In any case, I don’t have time to go point by point right now. Suffice it to say, that you’re assuming the playing field will be tilted in the Dems favor again in 2010. It won’t be.

then Texas becomes a toss-up, IMO. Perry has been in office since 2000 and that’s a long time. Voter fatigue is not out of the realm of possibility, even in a red state like Texas.

then Texas becomes a toss-up, IMO. Perry has been in office since 2000 and that’s a long time. Voter fatigue is not out of the realm of possibility, even in a red state like Texas.

I wish the comments here were more substantive and backed with data. Conjecture is great, but I think if you look at actual data, Republicans have a good chance at holding a bunch of these seats. The first comment in this thread is particularly full of conjecture and lacking in data or fact to back it up. Check out these two links to see the most recent approval ratings of most governors:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/favorables/governors_approval_ratings

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=71496.0

http://www.surveyusa.com/50State2006/Approval50StateGovernor061120.htm (2006 data - some states like HI haven’t been polled since)

Now, after looking at those numbers, I think that the GOP has a good chance to hold seats where governors eligible for reelection have high approval numbers:

Connecticut (58% approve, 9% disapprove)
Hawaii (71% approve, 24% disapprove)
Minnesota (53% approve, 17% disapprove)
Vermont (48% approve, 19% disapprove)

Because Rhode Island and California’s GOP governors are not running for reelection, it is impossible to make a call at this point. We must at least know who the nominees are until making predictions in those states.

As for seats held by Democrats, let’s look at data.

Kansas (67%/46% approve, 29%/25% disapprove)
Oklahoma (53% approve, 13% disapprove, 33% “fair”)
Tennessee (64% approve, 9% disapprove)
Wyoming (couldn’t find data)
Arkansas (68% approve, 8% disapprove)
Colorado (50% approve, 22% disapprove)
Iowa (45% approve, 22% disapprove)
New Hampshire (51% approve, 11% disapprove)
Ohio (42% approve, 17% disapprove, 38% “fair”)

Of those states, I think that Ohio, Iowa, and Colorado are probably the only ones that, as of today, the numbers look good for a GOP pickup. But remember - all politics are local, so a lot can change. But the numbers for many of these Dem governors in “GOP” states are high, so toppling them will be tough, namely in Arkansas, Tennessee, and Kansas.

Here are a few states that stand out to me in the SurveyUSA poll:

KY - Beshear (D): 52% approve, 38% disapprove (but only 39% approve in Rasmussen poll)
MA - Patrick (D): 47% approve, 45% disapprove
OR - Kulongoski (D): 45% approve, 49% disapprove
WI - Doyle (D): 46% approve, 50% disapprove

All four of those states’ numbers are odd, no? MA should be deep blue, but Gov. Patrick is not very popular. Watch him get a stiff challenge from Charlie Baker, the president of Harvard Pilgrim Health Care. MA voters like to have a moderate GOP governor to stand against the 95% democratic legislature, so watch for MA to revert in the next election. As for KY, the polls conflict so who knows how popular he is. Oregon and Wisconsin are states that could revert to GOP if the right local candidate stepped up. I know nothing about the politics in those states though, so that guess is based only on the data above.

Here are some other interesting numbers from the Rasmussen poll:

Minner (D), Delaware, 22% approve, 41% “fair,” 36% disapprove
Jindal, R, LA; 75% approve. I need say no more.
O’Malley, D, MD: Only 34% approve
Granholm, MI: 32% approve
Corzine, NJ, 25% approve
Doyle, WI, 34% approve

Who knows - with the right GOP candidate, those numbers indicate that the GOP could make pickups eventually in DE, MD, MI, NJ, or WI. On the other hand, a strong dem candidate could replace the unpopular gov in those traditionally blue states. We’ll have to wait and see…

But while we do… please…. when prognosticating, please back up comments with something substantive to rely on. Otherwise, they are arguments that none of us could make since we can’t back them up.