Yesterday Dan linked to the unusual update that Charlie Cook recently issued on 2010 races. As Ace notes, Cook seems to have decided to trust his gut more than his models, and says a loss of more than 20 seats is not at all unlikely.
“Many veteran Congressional election watchers, including Democratic ones, report an eerie sense of déjà vu, with a consensus forming that the chances of Democratic losses going higher than 20 seats is just as good as the chances of Democratic losses going lower than 20 seats…”
“We believe it would be a mistake to underestimate the impact that this mood will have on Members of Congress of both parties when they return to Washington in September, if it persists through the end of the Congressional recess.”
This is as good an opportunity as any to point out that the NRCC is continuing to line up strong candidates against all sorts of Democrats – even entrenched veterans and Democrat leaders. In many cases, the NRCC is finding credible candidates for swing districts where the incumbent hasn’t been challenged in years. Consider these reports from just the last few days:
- Virginia state Representative Terry Kilgore may run against subcommittee chair Rick Boucher – who was long thought invulnerable – in a district that favored John McCain by 19 points.
- Seventeen-term incumbent Ike Skelton will face one of two strong challengers – in a seat with a +14 Republican edge.
- Businessman Randy Altschuler will run against incumbent Democrat Tim Bishop in a district rated even.
- County GOP chair Charles Lollar may run against Majority Leader Steny Hoyer in a D+11 seat
I’ve spoken before about the good work being done by Pete Sessions and his team at the NRCC this cycle. They’re getting good reviews from outside, impartial observers as well. By listing just 4 House seats, I’m not trying to give a lengthy or exhaustive list. This is just a reminder that even as people hit the beaches for vacation, or demonstrate at townhalls, the NRCC is continuing to line up solid candidates in seats around the country.
And this effort yields results. Rick Boucher, Steny Hoyer, and others don’t yet know who they will face in 2010. But they know there’s a good chance of a real challenge, and they have to consider that when they vote on health care, cap-and-trade, and other liberal priorities. A grizzled old hand like Ike Skelton might be more likely to retire, knowing he’ll face a strong opponent in what looks like a tough year for Democrats. And of course, the best potential return is the prospect of a victory in 2010. And if the environment is favorable enough, and the NRCC recruits enough quality candidates, there could be a bumper crop.
Steve Maley
Moe Lane
Dan McLaughlin
Neil Stevens
Daniel Horowitz
Interesting
mblack Friday, August 21st at 5:40PM EST (link)However, if the DemocRATS continue down this path, radically implementing leftist policies on everyday Americans, that may cause a power shift back to the GOP in 2010.
Let’s say for arguments sake that the GOP resumes a majority:
Will they be able, or united enough to repeal some of the damaging legislation that has passed?
Will they have the guts to fight to overturn vetoes instead of being mealy mouthed and wanting to be nice?
Will they govern as fiscal Conservatives and address the bloat that is the government and reign in runaway spending?
Will they commit to removing our dependence on foreign nations to buy our out of control debt, which works as an albatross around our nations’ neck?
I could go on with multiple questions in regards to this matter, but most of Americans are TIRED OF THE UNNECESSARY SPENDING!!!!!
Can refuse to appropriate
sbowers3 (Diary) Tuesday, August 25th at 7:27AM EST (link)>Will they be able, or united enough to repeal some of the damaging legislation that has passed?
Just remember that they don’t have to repeal the legislation. It’s enough to refuse to provide any money to implement the bad legislation. And all that takes is either house or senate to not write a funding bill. Actually repealing the legislation would require both sides and the President. That won’t happen, but refusing to appropriate money can and should happen.
The question remains as to whether Republicans would be united enough to cut spending or would there be too many RINOs.
“Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else.”
NRCC vs. Individual Candidates
jcincy Friday, August 21st at 9:56PM EST (link)I hope the NRCC does well.
But… if you like a candidate, support them directly first.
Don’t leave it in the hands of any committee or PAC to do the support work for you. Committees can choose not support your candidate at a critical moment in the campaign. Also, I have been frustrated at times that NRCC / NRSC puts an endorsement behind a candidate before the primary.
In my opinion committees and PACs are a second choice once you have maxed out your donation to the individual candidate. Your mileage may vary.
“Providence has given to our people the choice of their rulers, and it is the duty, as well as the privilege and interest of our Christian nation, to select and prefer Christians for their rulers.” — John Jay
2010-2012
wgsampson Saturday, August 22nd at 1:20AM EST (link)Pete Sessions is doing a good job, and Republicans in the house are walkin’ the walk right now (for the most part). A 20+ seat pick up sems very doable, but I’m looking for around 35. That would make things really close, but Democrats would still be in charge through 2012. Then, after the second dip of the recession, the continuing high unemployment and high inflation, they will get an even bigger smack down.
Things are more interesting in the Senate though. John Cornyn, another fellow Texan, is useless. I hate to say it, but he still hasn’t shown me much. He is all talk. But, if by some act of God we can go +2 or +3 in 2010, 2012 becomes a nightmare for the Democrats. They will have to defend 20+ seats with an unpopular President and a bad economy. It will be like 2008 in reverse, but the economy will be much much worse.
The Democrats will also have to defend 20+ seats in 2014. Imagine 60+ Republican Senators with Jim DeMint in charge.
A lot Recruitment Still to Go
proudgop (Diary) Saturday, August 22nd at 2:04AM EST (link)Their is still a lot candidate recruitment to go
We need top tier challengers to people like:
Carney PA
Altmire PA
Murphy PA
Dahlkemper PA
Murphy CT
Murphy NY
Acuri NY
Maffei NY
Hill IN
Donnelly IN
Ellsworth IN
Pomeroy ND
Waltz MN
Petterson MN
so as u can see we still need to work at it
just few congressman who can best but we need good candidates ( just off top of my head)
A good way to foster this?
ColdWarrior (Diary) Saturday, August 22nd at 2:20AM EST (link)If you’re a conservative Republican in these congressional districts: become a precinct committeeman to help make sure the most conservative candidate wins in the Republican primary.
Thank you.
ColdWarrior
www.theprecinctproject.wordpress.com
P.S. Don’t forget to go to the Recess Rally tomorrow — every body counts: www.recessrally.com
In 2012, will YOU become a “voting member” of the Republican Party in your precinct?
Where it all started. Twitter @kaltkrieger
Unified Patriots.
Learn how to GOTV at The Concord Project and at Procinct and
emails
proudgop (Diary) Saturday, August 22nd at 2:28AM EST (link)I have been emailing state senators, reps, or mayors you think could win
You would be surprised how many respond back
PA Holden
IL Bean
AZ Mitchell
TX Rodriquez
GA Marshall
GA Barrow
AR Synder
OH Space
OH Bocceri
some others off top of my head
Demcrat appealing to Sessions for relief from Nita Lowey in 18th district
jchoulihan (Diary) Saturday, August 22nd at 1:25PM EST (link)I have sent Sessions a letter asking for help in putting up a viable candidate against Nita Lowey. I am a Democrat, joined by libertarians and independents. Given the northeast, a candidate against Lowey would have to be more moderate than not; an independent, or even a competing Democrat, would probably not be able to cope with the fundraising necessary to mount an effective campaing here given entrenched interests. I will not change my political affiliation, but I will do whatever is necessary to get her out. Her telephone town halls were a farce. See piece on femsex on Lowey town halls here: http://www.femisex.com/content/nita-lowey%E2%80%99s-%E2%80%9Ctown-hall%E2%80%9D-democracy-awol. We are furious. Her votes are party line travesties. While I still consider myself a liberal, after much due diligence, many of my policy preferences are more conservative than Democrats. This is the case with many Independents and Blue Dogs. We resented Republican lack of responsiveness in Congress to long-standing problems, health care among them, but now we are stuck with the monstrous and nonsensical solutions from our own party. Frustrated. JC Houlihan (pen name for speechwriter, essayist etc)