Larry Sabato is among the most respected election analysts working today. His election predictions are consistently among the most accurate around. In fact, I’ll let Sabato summarize his credentials:
In 2006, for example, a forecasting model that I developed predicted more than two months before Election Day that Democrats would gain 29 seats in the House of Representatives–a much larger pickup than most pundits and commentators were expecting at that time. The actual result was a 30 seat Democratic gain. A similar model that I developed for presidential elections has correctly predicted the winners of last five presidential contests more than two months before Election Day with an average margin of error of one percentage point.
Given Sabato’s track record, you’d be wise to pay attention when he says twitters something like this:
It now appears that Republicans will make above-average gains in the U.S. House of at least +23 seats. Average for first midterm election=17
The natural, normal state of midterm elections is opposition party gains. Only real question is size of gains. Crystal Ball says ’sizeable’.
Head over to Sabato’s Crystal Ball site, and he and his colleagues provide more background:
Under what might be considered a worst case scenario for Democrats, if President Obama’s approval rating sinks into the low 40s next year, which would produce a net approval rating of around -10, and Republicans take a 5 point lead on the generic ballot, the GOP would still be expected to gain only 4 seats in the Senate. However, such a scenario would put Republicans in position to come very close to regaining control of the House with an expected pickup of 41 seats. On the other hand, if the President’s approval rating rebounds into the mid 60s, producing a net approval rating of around +30, and Democrats have a 10 point lead on the generic ballot, the GOP would be expected to lose one seat in the Senate and gain only 15 seats in the House. Based on the latest results (as of August 24) for the President’s net approval rating in the Gallup Poll (+16 percent) and the Democratic lead or deficit on the generic ballot (+6 percent), the predictions would be a Republican pickup of 1 seat in the Senate and 23 seats in the House.
So your magic numbers for a Republican takeover of the House are +5 GOP advantage on the generic Congressional ballot (it’s currently about even), and a net presidential approval rating of -10 (it’s currently around +10). Considering how far and how fast the Democrats have fallen, neither one of those seems out of reach.
Further, the idea of a big Republican wave is starting to become conventional wisdom, and for the most part it doesn’t matter whether people expect a 20 seat or 40 seat gain. Either one is enough to encourage strong Republican candidates to run this cycle, as opposed to a few years from now. Either is enough to make swing-seat Democrats worry about being associated with the liberal Obama agenda. And either is enough to make deep-pocketed donors wonder if it’s wise to bet on the Democrats this time around.
And there’s likely to be another notable effect: if Democrats start to think that their window for bold action is closing, many may choose to push extreme legislation now, rather than wait for a better opportunity that will never come. Right now government-run care, Card Check, cap-and-trade, immigration reform, much higher taxes, gay rights, and other issues - all seem to be largely off the table. If the liberal base of the Democratic party believes that it will be impossible to make progress on those in 2011, it will push many to pursue a more extreme agenda now.
23-41? What guts Sabato has. I said 40+ months ago. He might as well have said
Mike gamecock DeVine Thursday, September 3rd at 10:47PM EDT (link)that it either will rain or won’t tomorrow.
Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com, Charlotte Observer and The Minority Report columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” - Andrew Jackson
40 takes it back --nt--
6eorge Jetson Thursday, September 3rd at 10:54PM EDT (link).
Glad to see "the punter" pic is back! - n/t
SoFiMil Thursday, September 3rd at 11:01PM EDT (link).
http://www.suvstrategery.blogspot.com
I favor EPU's 80+ strategy - nt
Mike gamecock DeVine Thursday, September 3rd at 11:06PM EDT (link)Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com, Charlotte Observer and The Minority Report columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” - Andrew Jackson
Thank you Mike
E Pluribus Unum Friday, September 4th at 12:39AM EDT (link)I was getting ready to comment.
It will be 80. Book it. Not all the pieces are in place, but the road the Democrats have laid for themselves will inevitably lead to more and more bleeding of American support.
They’re gonna come back to DC and STILL attempt to get some kind of health care takeover, they’re gonna try to resurrect Cap-n-Tax, they have to do SOMETHING about Gitmo, and no matter what they do they will lose votes. The czar thing is getting old, especially when they all (along with the Cabinet) tax cheats, racists, and weirdos.
This movie only gets worse for the Democrats, and they are incapable of turning the Titanic even a little bit.
80, baby!
Carthago delenda est
Do your conservative t-shirt Christmas shopping at EPU Gear. Save the conservative muse, save the world.
I see 80+ as really plausible
Richard Mullins Friday, September 4th at 12:50AM EDT (link)with the right candidates and money, it will work. Even polished dems are falling apart(I’m looking hard at TX-29 right now). I want to cut the number of dems here in Texas for congress down to maybe at most 3 to 4. That should make the entrenched dems get really scared. They made there mess, now it’s time to clean it up.
For more on my views, go my wordpress site:
http://rpmullins.wordpress.com
For more on Happy jet airlines, go here:
http://happyjetairlines.wordpress.com
For a good dose of satire go here:
http://thesquash.wordpress.com
For more of I like to do a lot:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/42008626@N03
if we can swing 5-10% of the Hispanic vote
scarlos Friday, September 4th at 1:23AM EDT (link)that will Happen. Right now, the Democrats only hold 2 seats not Minority-majority, and they are Chet Edwards (gone next year, pretty much guarenteed) and Lloyd Dogget, whose in Austin.
the only seats they hold with double digits partisan advantges and the heaivly black one in Dallas, two in Houston, and Downtown El Paso
Socialism is Oligarchy in disguise
A liberal is a person who thinks there is no problem that cannot be solved by consolidating more power in their own hands
Should be "Are the" not "And the"
scarlos Friday, September 4th at 1:26AM EDT (link)nt
Socialism is Oligarchy in disguise
A liberal is a person who thinks there is no problem that cannot be solved by consolidating more power in their own hands
Agreed on Edwards
cmw Friday, September 4th at 1:42AM EDT (link)Edwards is finished in Texas 17. We’re seeing to that …
Rob Curnock for Congress in Texas District 17
http://www.robcurnockforcongress.com/
Mayor Waco texas
proudgop Sunday, September 6th at 11:45AM EDT (link)Any cnahce the mayor of Waco would run?
she would be very tough opponent for him
"they are incapable of turning the Titanic even a little bit."
Return to Revolution Friday, September 4th at 6:57AM EDT (link)I hope so too because >1 year is still a lot of time in politics… I’d be a lot more comfortable if this was all happening in September of say, 2010.
The evil of the world is made possible by nothing but the sanction you give it.
Just in time for football season --nt--
6eorge Jetson Thursday, September 3rd at 11:16PM EDT (link)I remember a comment on the House changing parties
ohiohistorian Saturday, September 5th at 8:30PM EDT (link)There was a comment in 2006 that the House has never changed parties unless the Senate also does. I cannot see the Senate being able to change parties, which I think means that the House will not either.
“What experience and history teach is this - that people and governments never have learned anything from history, or acted on principles deduced from it.”
G. W. F. Hegel
You Can't Use RCP's Numbers to Metric This
IJB Thursday, September 3rd at 10:54PM EDT (link)RCP’s numbers are crap.
You have to look at ‘Likely Voter’ polling (which is what Sabato himself would likely use in the 2-3 months before an election).
And from those ‘Likely Voter’ numbers (Rasmussen and Zogby), Obama is in fact at something approaching -10%, and the GOP does indeed have +5% advantage on the Generic Congressional Ballot.
IOW, Sabato is ‘low-balling’ his numbers, and the likely result, if an election were held today, would much more along the lines of +40 in the House, and +4 in the Senate.
(I can’t wait to see how this will play out if Obama is in the *30’s* by next year!!)
IJB
redneck_hippie Thursday, September 3rd at 11:02PM EDT (link)Why isn’t the latest Zogby poll included in the (cough cough) RCP average?
“We must not lose our faculty to dare, especially in dark days.” - Churchill in March, 1942.
Remember NY-23; translation: RINOs Have No Base.
They Have Some Methodological Reason for That
IJB Thursday, September 3rd at 11:08PM EDT (link)It has something to do with how Zogby polls. It may be that Zogby uses the internet in his polling. I can’t remember the details.
If you E-mail RCP, I imagine they’d tell you why, if it’s not explained at the website (which I don’t think I’ve visited for at least a year…).
Thx. Seems fishy that they posted
redneck_hippie Thursday, September 3rd at 11:16PM EDT (link)the poll from 7/31 thru 8/4 but not the latest one. Not interested enough to communicate with them. The numbers are trending in a positive way so I’m not worried about RCP’s methodology or lack thereof.
“We must not lose our faculty to dare, especially in dark days.” - Churchill in March, 1942.
Remember NY-23; translation: RINOs Have No Base.
He might take that into account
scarlos Friday, September 4th at 2:22AM EDT (link)I mean, he might be taking into account Gallup’s lean, as he predicted a 15-seat switch even if Obama’s numbers go back above 60, so He’s probably using them as a ceiling for Obama’s popularity.
I think your right in that the Rasmussen numbers are more accurate, and bode well for our future prospects.
Socialism is Oligarchy in disguise
A liberal is a person who thinks there is no problem that cannot be solved by consolidating more power in their own hands
Generic Ballot
redtillimdead Thursday, September 3rd at 11:06PM EDT (link)Rasmussen had it @ R+6 tuesday!!
Nancy Pelosi can kiss my asstroturf.
Actually it's 7%
ceili_dancer Friday, September 4th at 1:25AM EDT (link)Dem 36% … Rep 43%, And it’s been positive Republican for the last 10 weeks. I pray that it is 80 in the House, but I would love to have net gain of 10 in the senate. That would be a hard road to ho, then we would have to worry about our Maine delegation switching parties in name as well as voting record.
Doubt they switch
redtillimdead Friday, September 4th at 2:04AM EDT (link)After Specter’s troubles, I don’t see it happening. Maine keeps electing them as Republicans. But, honestly, we could take back the senate in 2010. Maybe not on election night. Party switchers. Some of the most successful Republicans were Democrats (particularly Richard Shelby). If we can win in CA, NV, IL, DE, AR, ND, PA, NY, CT, CO, and keep all our incumbents and open seats, we are down to 50-50, assuming Dems win Kennedy’s seat, and we keep TX. Then, we could possibly get Ben Nelson to join us, at 51-49. Also, I see a good shot in MA. If Curt Schilling runs as a Republican backed independent, he would caucus with us. I can see MA voting for him as an independent, but not a Republican, so he could run with our funding, so we don’t divide any votes. In the House, I think come January 2011, we will see Speaker Boehner. Maybe by a very small margin, but we have a great chance at taking it back,
Nancy Pelosi can kiss my asstroturf.
Any thoughts on Curt Schilling
Cheryl Friday, September 4th at 2:09AM EDT (link)in MA? Wouldn’t that be a kick
He unlikely, but considering
redtillimdead Friday, September 4th at 2:37AM EDT (link)He siad at this point its not very likely, but he is giving it consideration. IF not, I think State. Sen. Scott Brown would be strong, or even Kerry Healey, only because of her money.
Nancy Pelosi can kiss my asstroturf.
Its MA
proudgop Friday, September 4th at 10:37AM EDT (link)I think he or Fmr AG Sullivan are the best we can do.
Schilling might be able to turn out a lot voters for us in what will probably be low turnout
Specter II?
dx2krudop Friday, September 4th at 7:38AM EDT (link)Mark Kirk is my Congressman. He’s the reason I haven’t been able to cast a ballot for representation in Congress for several years. If he becomes the next Senator from Illinois, we’ll have another Specter in the Senate. Marl Kirk is one of eight “Republicans” responsible for allowing Cap and Tax to pass the House. Even with all the studies coming out since its passage that show the disaster it will create for the U.S., he is still proud of that vote. When McCain endorsed him, that vote was actually brought up as a high mark for Kirk!
We need to defeat Kirk in the Priamry.
Brian Hibbert Friday, September 4th at 7:49AM EDT (link)There are several good conservative candidates who are running for the office as well, though the party leadership seems to have solidified around Kirk.
I wrote about a conservative candidates forum here:
http://www.redstate.com/brianh/2009/08/09/illinois-conservative-us-senate-candidates-forum-review/
It was sponsored by a group of downstate county parties that aren’t real impressed with Kirk’s positions.
BUT!!!!!!!
If he does win in the primary, I urge you to vote for him in the general. I’d rather have Senator Kirk than Senator Giannoulias. He’s not even pretending to be center of the road. He’s billing himself as a progressive.
Socialism doesn’t work. It looks nice on paper, but it’s been tried and it’s failed miserably every time (usually accompanied by widespread death and suffering).
Proud member of the V.R.W.C.
Join the RedState Strike Force
Why?
redtillimdead Friday, September 4th at 12:46PM EDT (link)No one else will have money to win. Kirk voted for cap and trade. Sure, not exactly a model conservative, but not NEARLY as bad as Specter! What the people of RS don’t understand is that we need to make a choice sometimes. Would we rather have the liberal Democrat or moderate Republican? The Conservative Republican will not win in Obama’s home state. Just because someone isn’t perfectly conservative, doesn’t mean we can’t support them.
Nancy Pelosi can kiss my asstroturf.
Kirk isn't close to perfectly conservative.
Brian Hibbert Sunday, September 6th at 10:37AM EDT (link)He’s for cap and raid.
He’s pro-abortion.
He’s basically a liberal with an R after his name.
You say he’s not as bad as Specter, but he’s shown all the signs of using Specter as a model for his own voting pattern.
No, I’d rather have someone who at least gives lip service to the Republican platform on the ballot. Otherwise it’s a choice between a far left D and a left of center R. So yes, I’ll support him in the general, but I’ll work to defeat him in the primary. We don’t need to concede states to the left, just because of incorrect perceptions. Illinois votes D because of some past issues with state government, mostly the memory of Gov. Ryan’s corruption and our party has put up some less than desirable candidates in response. Kirk is a less than desirable candidate.
Socialism doesn’t work. It looks nice on paper, but it’s been tried and it’s failed miserably every time (usually accompanied by widespread death and suffering).
Proud member of the V.R.W.C.
Join the RedState Strike Force
Candidate Recruitment
proudgop Thursday, September 3rd at 11:24PM EDT (link)I see us winning a lot seats back but we need top tier candidates and in many cases we still need them
Carney PA Space OH Donnelly IN Ellsworth IN Hill IN Waltz MN Petterson MN
Pomery NG McNerney CA Mitchell AZ Altmire PA Dahlkemper PA Murphy PA
Boyd FL Murphy NY Acuri NY Bean IL Kagen WI Barrow GA Marshall GA Perlmutter CO
a few names off top of my head
even people like Holden PA, Moore KS, Matheson UT, Taylor MS need to be help accountable for their vote for enabling Pelosi and Obama
I've been asking anybody who knows anything
Cheryl Thursday, September 3rd at 11:44PM EDT (link)who might run against McNerney and no one seems to know. I heard today that they are a couple prospects, still in the vetting process.
State Senator Maldonado
proudgop Thursday, September 3rd at 11:50PM EDT (link)State Senator Maldonado might be good candidate. I am not CA resident but he does represent a huge chunk of district and a swing district.
Maldonado was the state Repub
Cheryl Friday, September 4th at 12:05AM EDT (link)who caved during the budget process that lead to the recent special election. He reps the central coast, lucky devil. I don’t know if he has a residence up here, maybe. Wish Pombo would run again.
Pombo Would Be a Bad Choice
IJB Friday, September 4th at 12:16AM EDT (link)But I’m relatively certain there will be somebody in CA-11 who will run (likely a local pol, not a state-level one, I’d bet).
They may just be waiting for the environment to shift a little more in CA before announcing…
Abel Maldonado = mud
Erick Brockway Friday, September 4th at 12:23AM EDT (link)Maldonado showed himself to be a RINO after voting with the Dems to increase taxes in California. He’s got a recall going on now.
Note to lefties;
“Don’t be afraid to see what you see.”
Ronald Reagan
Join the RedState Strike Force
Chip in to get rid of “Babs” (Yes ma’am) Boxer.
maybe John Madden
Cheryl Friday, September 4th at 12:27AM EDT (link)LOL, he lives close by so I hear and he is retiring from SNF
Now THAT would be funny
Erick Brockway Friday, September 4th at 4:08PM EDT (link)Instead of the Ross Perot pie charts we’d have the circles and arrows in yellow on a monitor screen.
Note to lefties;
“Don’t be afraid to see what you see.”
Ronald Reagan
Join the RedState Strike Force
Chip in to get rid of “Babs” (Yes ma’am) Boxer.
Few other names
proudgop Sunday, September 6th at 11:52AM EDT (link)any news on taking out Salazar Co, Rodriquez Tx ( Bonnilla run again?), Adler NJ, Braley IA, Ross AR, Synder AR, Cooper TN, Tanner TN, Shuler NC??
they should all be on list too
a great post
Brian Johnson Thursday, September 3rd at 11:35PM EDT (link)And every time I read something like this my hope creeps up a little higher. But I’ll be honest, I’ll be saving my very-unpretty dance for election night when the results are in. Until then, any polling news favorable to us I’ll view with caution in the same way I do when UNC is down by 30 to Duke in basketball with 5:00 min left in the game….somehow, someway I know that the Tarheels will do something to best my Blue Devils by the end.
Brian
[irc://irc.distributed.net/VRWC](irc://irc.distributed.net/VRWC)
My biggest concern: Dems will reregister as Republicans...
smagar Thursday, September 3rd at 11:40PM EDT (link)to vote in our primaries for the easiest-to-defeat GOP candidates.
“Who will stand/On either hand/And guard this bridge with me?” (Macaulay)
Democrat Voters Are Demoralized Now
IJB Friday, September 4th at 12:12AM EDT (link)That’s what Dan Perrin’s (I think it was Dan…) diary about the Kos Kidz commentors the other day was all about.
This is 1994 redux - Lefties are not going to be en mass sneaking around and causing trouble in GOP Primaries, because a lot of them will not be motivated enough to even vote in the *general* election of 2010, after Single-Payer goes down, and Cap ‘n’ Tax, Card Check and Amnesty are never brought up for votes.
Those kidz are going to be a bunch of ’sad pandas’ by then…
Luckily dead voters don't get demoralized
bk Sunday, September 6th at 6:53AM EDT (link)so ACORN can still gin up plenty of Dem voters next year.
Good news..
smitch61 Thursday, September 3rd at 11:41PM EDT (link)As long as we take the house back.
Too bad there aren't more Senate seats in contention
DavidSage Thursday, September 3rd at 11:45PM EDT (link)It’s looking like 2010 will be a Republican wave, my guess is we’ll likely gain at least 30 seats, but we hit it at a bad election cycle when it comes to our Senate chances. There just aren’t that many pickup opportunities, even with a MASSIVE Republican wave we would only gain only 4-5 Senate seats.
The Dems won’t have the magic 60 seats any longer, but that doesn’t leave Republicans much room for error when it comes to the filibuster considering we’ll still have a few Republican Senators that will be “mavericks” and join the Democrats on certain issues.
I’m hoping the wave continues into 2012.
Why does everyone keep saying this?
Gandalf Friday, September 4th at 12:13AM EDT (link)We won’t take back the Senate, for sure, but I see only taking 4-5 seats as a fail of epic proportions. We’re already competitive in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Arkansas, and Colorado.
We can easily make New York (Gillibrand), North Dakota, California, Indiana, Delaware, and even Vermont and Hawaii competitive with the right candidates.
We should easily be able to keep Louisiana, Missouri, and New Hampshire in a wave year (the three biggest targets for the Democrats).
We won’t regain the Senate (we need +11 for that), but we should do better than 4-5 seats. I would think a more realistic number, if we gain more than 30 seats in the House, would be 7-8 Senate seats. Enough to put the stoppers on a lot of nonsense going on.
And enough to guarantee that we have some say in Stephens and Ginsburg’s replacements.
Christian Conservative First
Patriotic American Second
Dedicated Republican Third
Yes, the order is important.
There is an upside to that
scarlos Friday, September 4th at 2:36AM EDT (link)in 2012 and 2014, we’re most likely to gain seats simply because there are way more Democrats up than Republicans. in 2012 alone the numbers are 24-9, and all 9 Republicans won against 2006 headwinds.
If we get a good presidential candidate with good down-the-ballot support, I can see a 10-seat pickup in Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska, Missouri, Florida, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio, Virginia, and Pennsylvania.
Throw in West Virginia if Robert Bryd isn’t running (his medical condition may prevent it) and Michigan if it turns a bit more red, and we could be looking at a 12-seat pickup.
Socialism is Oligarchy in disguise
A liberal is a person who thinks there is no problem that cannot be solved by consolidating more power in their own hands
MI
redtillimdead Friday, September 4th at 2:38AM EDT (link)I am betting that their SoS runs. There has to be a reason she didn’t run for Governor, maybe eyeing a Senate race? Hope so.
Nancy Pelosi can kiss my asstroturf.
So I have a question...
Cheryl Thursday, September 3rd at 11:47PM EDT (link)any chance some blue dogs dems defecting to the other side?
So many questions
saintgeorgegentile Friday, September 4th at 12:06AM EDT (link)Something I’ve been wondering about myself regarding my blue dog (Matheson UT-2). He voted against Cap & Tax and held up Obamacare. But since he didn’t have the fortitude to hold any meetings during the break I suspect he’ll cave to Pelosi and tie his future to the Dems hoping that after the 2010 census UT gets a 4th seat and they’ll carve him out something safer than he has.
Freedom is the glue of capitalism, that amoral wisdom of the markets that most efficiently allots goods and services to a citizenry.
-Victor Davis Hanson
Redistricting
proudgop Friday, September 4th at 10:40AM EDT (link)Just watch what happens after redistricting. Chances are they will make his district solid blue just to allow another Republican seat in Utah.
Not really, because blue doghood is a sham (nt)
Neil Stevens Friday, September 4th at 12:12AM EDT (link)Want to run for conservatives? Give.
There Is No Crisis
The Only One Who Might Qualify Is Parker of MS...
IJB Friday, September 4th at 12:14AM EDT (link)…And if he didn’t switch in 1995, I doubt he’ll switch now.
Which is why I’m hoping someone in the MS GOP is paying attention, and planning on running someone against the guy this time.
Are they planning to primary Parker?
clowngirl Friday, September 4th at 12:22AM EDT (link)The Democratic Party has moved much further to the left since 1995 - maybe he’s finally gotten disgusted. is he one that the Dems are threatening to primary?
Confused
proudgop Friday, September 4th at 10:43AM EDT (link)Are you talking about Parker or Gene Taylor of MS? Parker is in his first term
Their is no blue dog Democrat: its basically pro life and pro gun Dems. However, this is the year we have to knock them off. The Dems in AR, WV, Pomeroy ND, Petterson MN, Boucher VA, Donnelly IN, Hill IN, Ellsworth IN, Space OH
a majority of the above voted for stimulus bill and cap and trade they aren’t as indep as they claim to be
You're Right - I Meant Gene Taylor of MS (nt)
IJB Friday, September 4th at 11:01AM EDT (link)speaking of blue
Cheryl Friday, September 4th at 12:37AM EDT (link)I’m going down to Dodger land when they play the Giants on 9/20 :)))
I've been wondering that too actually
clowngirl Friday, September 4th at 12:18AM EDT (link)Like maybe some of the blue dogs who voted against the stimulus…Does anybody have a run down on them? If there was a blue dog who has opposed Pelosi on crucial issues, is reasonably conservative, & is in a strong position to win in their district…
Have any of them been looking into switching parties?
Here we go again, more evidence.
mbecker908 Friday, September 4th at 12:25AM EDT (link)1. Democrats count votes.
2. They need “X” number, calculated by subtracting the number of Republican votes with them on a given issue.
3. The subtract 218 from the the total of the number of Democrats plus the number of Republicans voting with them.
4. The result = the number of Blue Dogs that are allowed to vote “against” Pelosi.
None of them, not one, zero, zip, nada, bupkis, is “reasonably” conservative in any sense of the word. And no, they’re not switching parties.
But on the Stimulus There Were At Least A Couple ...
clowngirl Friday, September 4th at 12:59AM EDT (link)who voted no without permission. I seem to remember at least one reportedly ticked Pelosi off pretty bad.
I didn’t just crawl out of a cave last week Becker, I’ve been reading probably the same news as you for at least the past 6 months so - you have freedom of speech and all and I don’t have a problem with ignoring most of what you post but your insults are rather tiresome. Though come to think of it, some of them are kind of amusing. I actually laughed at the “living in a cave until early last week” bit.
It may not be advantageous for the GOP to absorb any blue dogs, especially going into a really strong Republican year, but it’s hypothetically possible that a blue dog might be drifting more and more to the right, and be well liked in his or her district and therefore hard to pick off. So I was just curious if there were any that fit that description.
It is an act you idiot.
mbecker908 Friday, September 4th at 8:22AM EDT (link)You’re read the same news as I have “for at least the past six months”? I’ve not insulted you yet, I’ve just pointed out the obvious.
You may “read” stuff, but you are incapable of understanding a word of it.
Ease up
Neil Stevens Friday, September 4th at 11:16AM EDT (link)Namecalling is for the left only.
We *really* don’t want to see any more of this stuff directed at our side please?
Want to run for conservatives? Give.
There Is No Crisis
It really depends on who will be the R candidates.
Rod_Patrick Friday, September 4th at 12:44AM EDT (link)If we read the messages of the Tea Party and Townhall people, THEY PREFER NEW FACES…. NEW NAMES … new ideas.
They prefer the likes of Paul Ryan, Cantor, Bachmann, etc.
Those incumbent R congressmen who have been deemed as one of the “Good Old Boys” are also in imminent danger of losing their seats. In such case, we really need to primary all the non-performing and incumbent Rs and replace them with better, younger, new-idea candidates to ensure our victory.
RNC is crucial in finding us with better candidates. RNC should assist those good and qualified candidates but are currently no political machinery to run.
Grand-fathering of the incumbents should be a BIG NO.
NRCC does that, not the RNC
Neil Stevens Friday, September 4th at 12:55AM EDT (link)And they are, they are. For challengers anyway.
If you want to tackle Republican incumbents, that’s another matter. Most of us are more interested in seeng Democrats lose.
Want to run for conservatives? Give.
There Is No Crisis
Thanks, Neil
Rod_Patrick Saturday, September 5th at 2:31AM EDT (link)for the correction. Yes. NRCC it is.
To clarify my points on the incumbents:
I’m only referring to the Old RINOs who have been too “accommodating” of the Democrats’ proposals for the sake of bipartisanship, And probably to some extent, those with well-established names but generally untrustworthy such as Crist.
I am ready to help retake my district
california_red Friday, September 4th at 1:23AM EDT (link)I am in CA 11th. It was Republican until 2006 when McNerney took office. I think it is a seat that can be reclaimed in 2010.
I volunteered to help the local Republican party last week. I am not sure what I will do. I have never volunteered for a politcal party before, but I felt that the time to take action was upon me.
Step one is talking about it with someone
scarlos Friday, September 4th at 2:44AM EDT (link)Read up on the issues, and have a pleasant discussion with someone about them. If they disagree with you, try to make your case. If they agree with you, encourage them to volunteer as well.
Elections are won and lost by how many people you can convince that your candidate and platform is better. You don’t have to be a great speaker or organizer to influence the outcome of an election.
Socialism is Oligarchy in disguise
A liberal is a person who thinks there is no problem that cannot be solved by consolidating more power in their own hands
Ca Red, I'm in the 11th too
Cheryl Monday, September 7th at 2:37AM EDT (link)and still waiting to hear who will run against McNerney. I have a meeting next week that may provide some intel, lol. I heard there are two possibilities, pretty weak I know.
Little early for this, but if the Democratic Party stays the course they're currently on...
tantytantalus Friday, September 4th at 2:57AM EDT (link)An article like this one got submitted to Fark a few days back; was met by “COOL STORY, BRO” image macros and general reflexive denial.
Much of the Democratic Party’s current weakness lies in the “we won, you lost, get over it” attitude being sustained by so many of its supporters. They see a Congressional majority and a charismatic leader at the helm, and the stars are in their eyes for the Changed America that had been campaigned to them. Indicators that the Good Fight may not be going so well for their side are explained away, attacked, denied, or simply ignored.
The worst response that Obama’s supporters could make to the Obamacare protests was to claim that the protesters represented an inconsequential political minority. The attitude only fosters complacence in those individuals who, content with having “won” America through the 2008 election, believe that their work is forever done.
If so many Democratic constituents had not abandoned their sense of urgency and activism, they could take measures to shore up the foundations on which the Democratic Party’s strong political position currently rests. This doesn’t appear to have started to happen yet, as indicators of threats to the Party’s position are kept under the rug…
In the early hours of the Great Fire of London, Mayor Thomas Bloodworth scoffed and suggested that the disaster might be stopped by urinating upon the flames. Bloodworth’s inability to acknowledge the threat to his city resulted in much of it being reduced to burnt rubble.
I do not agree with Sabato on this, see my comment below
kyle8 Friday, September 4th at 6:16AM EDT (link)nt
“Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty”
Kyle
I would love to know where Sabato makes up those numbers...
JadedByPolitics Friday, September 4th at 6:35AM EDT (link)it has to be higher I mean there are 2 in my area that will be GONE for sure, Connelly and the guy in VA-5…..if I have two there must be a heck of a lot more then 40….it’s a 80+…when I saw I believe EPU say that I knew that number was closer to the truth of 2010 then anything else others are saying!
Whoever has his enemy at his mercy &
does not destroy him is his own enemy
You're right. If Sabato is saying 23-41, the numbers...
penguin2 Friday, September 4th at 11:47AM EDT (link)are likely much higher. He is a strong liberal Democrat in charge of the Center for Politics at UVA. I’ve always thought him to be one of the more tolerable guests on FOX, because he does try to present objective data, and he isn’t often off the mark, even though his Dem slant shows through. At least that was the way I saw his predictions and outcome of the past election cycle.
These numbers from him, say he must be very concerned. IMO, he would not ever present them if they were not the minimum. A Dem like him will portray the minimum damage but still has to maintain his credibility. So there may well be more than meets the eye. He doesn’t have to report all of the bad news for his side.
Resistance to tyrants is obedience to God.
Benjamin Franklin
A whole lot of people counting their chickens on this thread
kyle8 Friday, September 4th at 7:02AM EDT (link)I hope your right But I fore see some disappointment.
“Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty”
Kyle
I agree
bk Sunday, September 6th at 6:58AM EDT (link)There will be tens of billions of “stimulus” money lying around next year just waiting to be turned into projects in any tightly-contested districts. We’re going to see people like Axelrod and Rahm doling it out as if it were political contributions … which is exactly what it will be, except that it’s courtesy of us taxpayers.
how to you watch out for this?
lynnbo Monday, September 7th at 6:19PM EDT (link)how do you watch out for this in 2010?
Dems in contested districts will bring home lots of bacon
bk Monday, September 7th at 8:52PM EDT (link)As we saw in one of the earlier contested votes, one person said he or she was told to name their price in what it would take in money poured into their district to get them to vote the “right” way. We are going to see this next year except orders of magnitudes higher. There is more than $650B of stimulus money just waiting to be doled out.
Republican Candidates
dclamage Friday, September 4th at 10:46AM EDT (link)In order to make big gains in Congress, Republicans must have viable candidates for every contested seat.
In order to make big gains in the state legislations, Republicans must have viable candidates for every contested seat.
I know for a fact that many of these seats at the state and federal level go uncontested to the Democratic incumbent.
It’s time to fill the void, in time for the 2010 elections.
– Dan Clamage
The NRCC is aggressively recruiting this cycle.
Moe Lane Friday, September 4th at 11:50AM EDT (link)Particularly the Blue-in-Red seats.
Check out my new blog at http://moelane.com/.
http://twitter.com/moelane
My (blogging-related) wish list.
Out of a population of about 305 million,
Lynda Saturday, September 5th at 8:18PM EDT (link)there are over 207 million who are eligible to vote and of those, only about 170 million were registered voters in 2008 but only about 122 million actually voted. We have all dropped the ball when it comes to working for who ever we are backing in elections. If those of us on the right had been as diligent as the mutts on the left and had gotten out there and fought for our candidate we might have stirred up that 10 mil votes that McCain needed to win. Did I say McCain? Yes I did. Many felt as I did that McCain was too old and to politically waffling and weak to be president but he at least would have had a VP with grit. And if we want to win back in Congress we need to get out and work for our candidates. It is voter apathy that has given those mutts in Congress the message that no one was watching them!!
“I only regret that I have but one life to lose for my country.” Nathan Hale, September 22, 1776
Lynda
Republicans
harvey Sunday, September 6th at 6:17AM EDT (link)The time has came for them to choose their words and actions very carefully.Every time they grt in a good position they seem to find some one in the party to screw up real bad.If