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What’s the Matter with the New York State GOP?

Winnable Races, but too few Candidates

In the wake of Scott Brown’s upset win in Massachusetts, Blue-Chip GOP candidates are coming out of the woodwork around the country. But there seems to be little progress in dark blue New York – at least when it comes to statewide races. With a dearth of good candidates (so far), New York may be one state where Democrats dodge a Republican wave that seems set to sweep the nation in 10 months.

This year the Empire State is host to a bevy of statewide contests. Voters will elect two US Senators, a Governor, Attorney General and Comptroller. At this point, there are two Republican candidates declared for those contests: former Representative Rick Lazio for Governor, and former County Legislator Bruce Blakeman for Kirsten Gillibrand’s Senate seat. Admittedly, New York has few top-tier Republican candidates – especially after 3 consecutive disastrous cycles. But polls show that Gillibrand is eminently beatable. And the Governor’s race should be appealing as well – even if you assume that Andrew Cuomo will defeat incumbent David Paterson in a primary.

The main story on the Republican side has been of heavyweights who take a pass. And this is a state with few Republican heavyweights. The list probably begins and ends with former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. While Giuliani considered both gubernatorial and Senate races, state Republicans grumbled about his ‘Hamlet Act.’ Eventually party leaders moved to line up other candidates for those races, and Giuliani decided he wasn’t interested, anyway.

Almost by default, former Governor George Pataki makes the list as well – despite having left the governorship with approval ratings in the 30s back in 2006. But that was then, and this is now. Pataki leaders Gillibrand in Senate polling. The last prominent Republican widely looked to as a potential statewide candidate is Congressman Peter King – one of just 2 Republicans in the state’s House delegation. King ultimately decided to run for re-election, rather than seek a promotion.

Admittedly, there’s a relatively thin bench to work with – at least, this year. The state’s Republicans had a great year in 2009 – taking over several key counties, and winning city council seats across the state. In a few years, the people who won in 2009 and 2010 will challenge for higher office, but few are ready now.

When it comes to the Gillibrand Senate seat, a host of names have been floated. Giuliani, Pataki, and King (twice) have all been rumored for the seat. So have Marc Mukasey – the son of the former Attorney General – and Sue Molinari – who was last elected in New York in 1996, and who currently resides in Virginia. After Scott Brown’s win there’s been more speculation about Pataki, again. But a round of calls to Republican operatives found no one who expected him to run. And a well-placed Republican strategist describes it as ‘a longshot;’ party leaders are actively pursuing other candidates.

Things are marginally better when it comes to the gubernatorial race. The lone Republican candidate – Rick Lazio – has run statewide before. He was defeated by Hillary Clinton 55%-43% in the 2000 Senate race – a race in which he was a late substitute for Rudy Giuliani. Lazio is slowly and steadily winning endorsements, but some party leaders are looking for another candidate. There’s been talk about Erie County Executive Chris Collins (who’s now definitively out of the race), and even former State Senator Mike Balboni – who jumped from the State Senate to a job in the Spitzer administration, helping the Democrat party retake control of that body.

In the last few weeks things have gotten bizarre, as Suffolk County Executive Steve Levy has reportedly been in discussion with GOP leaders about switching parties and running for Governor. It’s been reported that Levy wants the GOP to clear the field for him – a stunning request for a turncoat with little name ID. Because Levy is a fiscal conservative who’s run with Republican and Conservative party backing in the past, his running as a Republican shouldn’t be dismissed out of hand. But it says a lot that some party leaders are courting him for any statewide race.

The news isn’t all bad. It appears that one legitimate candidate may soon declare for state comptroller. And a number of strong candidates have stepped up for House races. (In fact, no state has more Democrat Congressional seats on Charlie Cook’s 2010 watch list than New York – which has a whopping eight). Plus, the filing deadline is not until July, so there’s time for candidates to jump in.

But whether because of a thin bench, the high cost of statewide races, or the fact that state legislators look like bad candidates right now, there’s not a lot of candidate for high-priority races. And if Gillibrand, Schumer, and either Paterson or Cuomo prevail without strong challenges, New Yorkers will be kicking themselves for years.

COMMENTS

  • justicefin

    is it that hard to find someone to run. They need to draw straws or pick a name out of the hat and start running them Now. Even if they are no name….as long as they are conservative. We will back them and help fund him/her.

  • Brian_Roastbeef

    This is what I’ve been complaining about pretty much since I started posting on here again. We should be going for the trifecta, but the NYS GOP is so inept that they can’t straighten out their candidates in order to do so. Letting Giuliani slip away is the crown jewel of a vast empire of ineptitude.

    Why exactly are we still considering who should run for Governor? Is the party in this state so completely drooling stupid that they are seriously considering Ley. We have a candidate. Rick Lazio. The setup with him is simple. He’ll beat Paterson by double digits, but Cuomo would beat him just as soundly. That’s the case with any Republican, so leave this race alone. Stop jumping at the lowest hanging fruit and move on to the vulnerable Senate races.

    Why have we not been lobbying George Pataki daily since Scott Brown won office? There is zero chance that he will win the Republican nomination for President in 2012, but if the Presidency is what he truly seeks then the path for 2016 starts vs. Gillibrand now.

    All I can hope is that something happens out of left field, because wishing the best from the party leaders in this state is too absurd to consider. Their idea would probably be to run Dede Scozzafava in all three races… I guess our best, although slim, chances now lie with Larry Kudlow deciding to go up against Schumer. The first poll that shows him reasonably competitive should encourage somebody worthwhile to take up the mantle vs. Gillibrand. John Faso maybe? Likeliest speculation is he’d go for comptroller again… We don’t even necessarily need a big name, a small name would suffice, but only if he’s as dynamic as Scott Brown.

    As far as the House races I agree there has been some better news out there. We have a couple of candidates looking at 23 and I think 24 is very much winnable now that Richard Hanna has stepped up. I’d really like to see somebody make a play for the 25th, here in Syracuse. The Cook PVI isn’t that bad – D+3. That’s very possible this year, and I don’t consider Nancy’s rubber stamp Dan Maffei that frightening of an opponent. DeFrancisco could beat him. Maybe Bernardi, too, though it would be better to have some younger guys ready to jump in.

    On the state level, I can say that here we have a very good candidate making a bid to take on State Sen. Dave Valesky. Andrew Russo. Check him out. http://russofornysenate.com/

  • kaye

    and working on potential candidates. Most of us are new to this, and late to the party, but all over the state there is movement.

    • Brian Faughnan

      Are there any particular candidates that are gaining any buzz, yet?

      • http://www.socialmediapull.com outraged

        I’ve heard of Joe DioGuardi, former Congressman. Think he’s Kara DioGuardi’s father– from Google search.

    • http://www.ssce.net/Web-Articles/Web-articles-indexed-authors.html#authors-l JLenardDetroit

      If Conservatives finally awakened by the TEApeat movement isn’t working within, to take control where necessary, the GOP then the Races are split having to try and run a Conservative as an Independent. I don’t have the link handy, but someone will probably chime in, regarding the “Committee Project.”

      Many locales that have been so Blue for so long the GOP is controlled by DeDe types. We had the same issue here in the Socialist Utopia Of Wayne County MI when we had a MI-CD-16…. We Conservatives had to step up because far too many of us let things slide, because the area so Blue and the difficulty of getting any Republican elected therein, that the McCainiac type wing of the Party types took over the District Leadership. We have to have strong Conservative Leadership in any and every part of the Country for the very reason that when chances arise they aren’t left to the DoDo wing and throwing away those opportunities. Not to say, of course, Rubio or Toomey would be the Candidate everywhere, Scott Brown’s and others may need be the choices (but never the DoDo’s again), and we only can ensure that if CONSERVATIVES are willing to work within the GOP – outside pressures isn’t always gonna cut it.

  • jfindl2

    I think one of the main reasons that there is a derth of candidates for Gillibrand’s seat is that whoever wins the seat will have to run for reelection in 2012. So a Republican would get two years in office and then face a reelection in a presidential year when NY will probably vote overwhelmingly Democratic.
    It sure seems like the everybody believes Cuomo to be unbeatable. It is really unfortunate b/c if there is no candidate to oppose him, it will be very tough to win any of the other statewide offices and it could have a really negative impact on the downballot races as well. If I were the Republicans I would be going all out to try and retake the State Senate b/c if Cuomo wins and the D’s control the Senate then the road back to power will be very, very long indeed due to redistricting.

    • http://vbushmills.blogtownhall.com/ vassar

      …MASS was bluer than NY, it’s the party apparatchiks having an even more difficult time dealing with Scott Brown than Obama is. Their rice bowl is in jeopardy….even if it is is covered on Bob Michel gravy.

      My friend, AcelnTX (below) is right, as is Kaye (above).

      Mssr Steele needs to send a little notice to either get in gear or get out to NY-GOP. And then, we can all read the tea leaves about what is to be done.

  • AceInTX

    The party doesn’t have a bench because it’s decided it’s a minority an will always be one.

    You get losers who thrive in such an environment because they can be in leadership because there is no one to challenge them. If they do end up with an influx of good people in a good year like this one…they immediately set about making the new people feel as unwelcome as possible so they can settle things down and go back to their sleepy existences with their title on their letter head, no reason for existing…and nothing to do but play at being important!

    this is what we’re up against in trying to reshape this party…we have to get over the notion that it’s Kennedy’s seat…or it’s a blue state and a conservative has no chance. We need to selttle on a message…drive it home…and take it to every corner of this country no matter how blue the state or how long the odds…keep storming the ramparts…keep bettering the gates…and we’ll eventually win…quit like they have in NY and the rest of NE and CA and we lose…it’s that simple!

    • http://vbushmills.blogtownhall.com/ vassar

      VB

      If thr GOP won’t build a fire, maybe we can.

      • AceInTX
    • Brian_Roastbeef

      The party leaders prefer it this way. Its almost like the deals that the U.S. and U.K. made with the Soviets at the end of WWII over control of Europe.

      They get the Northeast, we get the South. We’re supposed to be competitive in the South and most of the west, but we’re not supposed to have candidates here. Demographics argue against it and blah blah blah. Its all a backroom deal that is preferred on both sides because it keeps the same old dinosaurs in power everywhere. This way Schumer can be a bigmouth and not deal with competition, while Lindsey Graham and Bob Bennett can be all bi-partisan and sell conservatives down the river as often as not. One party or the other, the government wins.

      So is it any surprise that my railing on the NYS GOP continues…? I’m guessing Brown’s win shook nearly as many old entrenched Republicans as it did Democrats. Even if he is a moderate or a RINO or whatever you wish to call him – he’s something new, that party leaders didn’t count on. The party leaders may still be playing by the old rules of back room deals and “safe” territory, but we’ve shown that we aren’t. Scott Brown has shown that. Pretty soon Marco Rubio will show that. Carly Fiorina is starting to find out about it the hard way (although to Campbell moreso than DeVore).

      Conservatives aren’t going to abandon the Republican party, because we know that if we do, we lose. Yet the Republican party doesn’t seem to have much drive to win… Feingold, Bayh, Boxer, Murray should be learning along with Sen. Schumer and Sen. Girl-Schumer that there isn’t any state that is safe this year. If the leaders of the Republican party aren’t on board, then we’ll need to find new leaders of the Republican party.

      • AceInTX
    • eburke

      You are *so* dead on in this Ace. All the party apparatchiks in state’s like NY is keeping whatever crumbs of the pie there are in their little, grubby, greedy fists.

      And because ‘we’ totally punt the entire state, along comes a wave election like this year and we’ve got zip…zero…nada…because our feckless, leaders such as inhabit the NY GOP are happy to get their little slice of the power pie.

      It is absolutely essential in blue states like NY that ColdWarriors Precinct Committeeman project be implemented. Take the state leadership slots back from the Bob Michel’s of the world and start rebuilding the party.

      It’s the one and only thing that Howard Dean ever got right.

      • Jack_Savage

        Believe the pundits, bow your head, take what you are given.
        To hell with that.

      • AceInTX

        I’ve written before about how, when I got involved as a delegate in 2000, I was so stunned by the sour grips and bitterness at how terrible it was after 1994 and all the riff raff made their presence known. The old guard here circled the wagons and froze them out…and everyone was happy again to not have to deal with the unwashed masses.

        I kept my mouth shut and kept my head down for a while and made it to the credentials committee in 2004…but you all know me…I can’t keep my mouth shut when there is a good principled fight to be had…and the best I could do in 2008 was to be asked if I’d sign people in on the rosters and pass out lunch tickets….the door is official;ly closed now!

        • http://www.ssce.net/Web-Articles/Web-articles-indexed-authors.html#authors-l JLenardDetroit

          (as I came across their comment first thumbing through the Diary)…. but exactly right…. It is hard for some in Red Districts to understand how so many years of BLUE-ism can wear on folks and others happy just to have a little Power Thief-dom come in, happy in their own little bubble, rather than being around to do anything about core GOP Platform causes/concerns. The “Committee Project” (someone provide a link, for some reason I didn’t save that one off – doh) is so important no matter what shade your District, County, State, is!!! We needed to be ready for these opportunities with people in place rather than having to play catch-up and acting last-minute and/or from behind. My current area Districts are “mostly” controlled by staunch Conservatives (there are still some that go soft, but we keep close watch) and we will be putting forth Conservative Candidates (Conservative Candidates (the Diary) (and Third Party calls to another FAILure)) in the hopes the BarackLash will lift us to gain some Michigan seats – which was/is only possible because we Conservatives have been running such all along and poised and ready for when these opportunities to “steal a few” (if you must) come about from otherwise solid Blue areas..

      • AceInTX

        ll the party apparatchiks in state?s like NY is keeping whatever crumbs of the pie there are in their little, grubby, greedy fists.

        I wish I had known…when we were going through the “Shut up and get in line” flame wars in 2008 that there are 51% of voters in MA registered as independents with Republicans and Democrats combined making up the other 49%.

        We were beaten about the head daily about how the only people who could win in NE are Dem light candidates….but why are there 51% of these people registered as independents…how many of that 51% are disenfranchised conservatives who don’t feel like they have a home?….how many of the unregistered and non voting people in NE don’t vote because they are conservative but think there is no use voting because they’re all alone and their way of thinking won’t fly there? How many New Englanders don’t vote because they don’t see a Dimes worth of difference between the Democrats and the New England establishment Republicans?

        Of course..we’ll never know untill someone runs a conservative campaign will we…which is just the way they want it!

        • Swamp_Yankee

          People assume that the only reason Republicans lose is because the GOP doesn’t run “real” conservatives. And that when presented with true strong conservatives, voters will elect the conservative. I know that’s easier to digest, but its baloney.

          Conservatives run here. They run in a lot of Blue states. You just don’t hear much about them much because their campaigns have a hard time gaining traction. It’s a delicate balance that requires strong analysis.

          • AceInTX
          • Swamp_Yankee

            GOP starts with a big hole. They are down 3 to1 Dems outright.

            Despite, all the anti-yankee rhetoric around here. Bay state voters are a highly diverse and educated electorate. They are not monolithic by any means, and there is no secret hidden conservative electorate.

            Of the 51%, just as many are disaffectred liberals, who are tired of the Democrats, as are disaffected conservatives, who are tired with Republicans. There is a lot of diversity among teh Democrats, liberals and radicals here. They do not march in lock step. Its a one party state and many people hate established power, even if they lean liberal. Brown won thousands of “good government” liberal leaning “independents”.

            Also, if you go to places like Amherst and Cambridge, those are not Democrats, those are radicals. And they actually hate Democrats and vote Democrat with their noses turned up. Many radicals register independent because they are mad that the Dems are not liberal enough.

            Still, the largest block are true moderates. There are many social liberals and fiscal conservatives, There are also many social conservatives, who believe in unions, medicare and all that stuff. There are many voting blocks that dont feel at home in either party. The independents are a true mish mash of mixed voters.

          • AceInTX

            I’m not saying they have to be Conservatives in the mold of Jerry Falwell or Pat Robertson….or DeMint and Cantor….but it seams to me there must be something the MA GOP can do to attract these people that doesn’t involve being a photo copy of the Democrat Party.

          • AceInTX

            I didn’t realize I’d typed that much into the title line

          • Scope

            I live in his district. I promise you, he is very unpopular here amongst the conservatives. Problem is, no one will primary him. The Democrats don’t even run anyone against him. The most of his district is rural, and, those people don’t get out much, if you know what I mean.

            Recently he was on local talk radio, saying that he wanted the Republicans to have a say in the Obamacare legislation, not that it needed to be stopped. He is a big government guy, in the mold of McCain. He sent a personal check, for $5,000. to Scozzafava. He is pushing for, and fundraising for the biggest RINO running for the 5th district seat, even though there are some really good conservatives running. The people in the 5th are screaming at him to “mind his own dang business” and to stay out of their primary. He never had the first townhall in August. He is sending a rep of his to speak to the locals about their concerns next week. He avoids his constituients like the plague.

          • http://www.ssce.net/Web-Articles/Web-articles-indexed-authors.html#authors-l JLenardDetroit

            to finally again demonstrate, while they are openly (some, finally) listening and open to discussion/debate that ‘the two Parties are the same” (though we have our “problem” folks… cough…McCain… cough, but is more MSM narrative) is non-sense (contrast the Platforms) and they can help ensure that it is even further BS by their joining in the Official Leadership structure of the GOP to push for the best Conservative Candidates. We had (and seen) some of that following the UWSA/Perot/Reform time-period (some of them came over and helped wrestle MI-CD-16 away from the McCainiac types I pointed out in another post upthread) and helped the Conservative Revolution of the 90′s.

            +Party of kNOw – Republicans must be the Party of HELL NO [to Bigger Govt.] not the Party of SLOW[er Liberal Incremental-ism]
            +TEApeaters, 3rd Party mistake – alot of TEApeaters fail to recognize (prepare to repeat) History… (addl. discussion here)
            +over-coming BLUEism – BLUE-ism

  • redtillimdead

    Levy will only run if Lazio gets out. The state GOP is trying to get him to run against Gillibrand I heard. He is saying no so far.
    Another new name for Sen race vs Gilly- Minority Leader Brian Kolb

  • republicants

    As it stands only 1 Democrat Eric Massa is guaranteed to lose. Tom Reed the Mayor of Corning is going to win a seat the GOP should never have lost after McCain won 51% in the district. I have a diary that discusses New York in great detail.

  • skully

    Erie County executive did just announce he was not in the running for governor. One reason he cited was fundraising – having to raise $1 million per week for about 35 weeks.
    Collins is a decent fiscal conservative, but powerful unions and restrictive contracts make getting anything done in this town difficult.
    He would be a good choice for one of the other state-wide offices. People around me in this deep-blue area are fed up with state politics even more so than federal.
    Red State can help with name recognition and fundraising for candidates like him. Therer are also several Tea-Party groups that have become more popular and vocal.

  • The Grognard

    is that, for the most part, there’s almost no difference between them and the Democrats.

    • eburke

      nominated ScuzzyFuzzy behind closed doors?

      Uhhh….never mind.

  • GISAP

    In my Congressional District, NY-19, the Republican candidate is Greg Ball, who is proud to have this written about him on his own website ball4ny.com:

    “The assemblyman?s voting record has also ranked him as one of Albany?s most ardent pro-labor legislators, and Ball has found himself as only Republican in the Hudson Valley to receive the coveted endorsements of both the Westchester and Putnam Building and Construction Trades Council, and the Hudson Valley Building and Construction Trades Council, representing sixty-two unions from seventeen trades.”

    He also mouths John Kerry: “He believes that we should reward companies that create jobs in the Hudson Valley, and penalize those that send them offshore.”

    I hate living in this God-forsaken state full of snarling socialists and pansy-ass RINOs.

    • Brian Faughnan

      It’s amazing how much the New York Republicans sound like Democrats.

      A relative of mine – whose name shall remain nameless to protect the guilty – almost gagged during a lunch with his GOP State Senator. This Senator started spouting off about how the state needed to go after the greedy oil companies.

      My dad stopped him before he went any further, and his language was not pretty.

      That party is going to be in trouble as long as its members are dedicated to trying to peel off some labor support from the Democrats. They need to draw contrasts, and all they offer is echos.

    • proudgop

      First, Greg Ball is no longer running for Congress he is running for State Senate now

      New York GOP is in shambles and many blame Pataki to be honest. The last Republican to win statewide was him in 2004. Pataki really did nothing to help build the party up and part of the problem is that Republicans are a very small minority in the House and while they controlled the Senate till 2008 did so with the majority of the members being over 65 at least ( nothing wrong with that age of course it just didn’t help build party up).

      The GOP was slaughtered on congressional level in past few cycles too. We lost seat on Staten Island due to Vito’s personal problems, we lost seat on Long Island ( Bishop) and worse we lost almost all upstate seats ( Maffei, Hall, Acuri, Owens, Murphy, and Massa) The good news is the Republicans have good candidates so gar against Hall, Massa, Acuri, Maffei, and Bishop. Still waiting on who will challenge Murphy ( hopefully Faso takes the plunge) and Owens is likely to face Hoffman again or another Republican upstate.

      The bad news is New York has lost a lot people and most of those people were Republicans who migrated out while a lot Yuppies have moved in and a lot NYC residents now vote in upstate NY and also the Hispanic population has increased a lot. 10 years ago Upstate NY was Republican part of the state now you have to say Long Island is.

      The Republicans can win like they did this past November if they run on property taxes ( appeals to Westchester and Long Island crowd), ethical issues ( State Senate been a joke under Dems and of course balance of power comes into this as well)

      The bad news is I don’t have a name for you that is running to take on Gillibrand still? I don’t think Pataki will run and we can’t seem to find a young energetic rich person to run too which is scary. Worse, its deja vu with Cuomo being heir apparent in Gov mansion it worked so well with us under Spitzer. We can’t even find anyone to run in open AG or open Comptroller race

      I think the NY GOP will have to start to build its farm team up again in county level, congressional seats back, and hopefully taking state senate back before we have republicans who can run statewide.

      • GISAP

        Great news about Greg Ball. He’s not in my Senate District so I don’t have to expend energy to thwart him.

        But you mentioned that there IS a Republican candidate. Who is it. please?

        • GISAP
          • GISAP

            http://www.cityhallnews.com/newyork/article-1059-in-hudson-valley-local-gop-revolt-against-washington-blessed-candidate.html

          • proudgop

            she very much resembles Sue Kelly who held that seat and CQPolitics did an interview with her and she came off very well

            Hall is such a liberal he should not be in that seat

  • chsw

    Many NY Republicans would be conservative Democrats in most states. Many NY Democrats would be institutionalized as insane in most states.

    chsw (in NY for 28 years now)

  • Marcus_Traianus

    Problem is, I would have to run against Nita Lowey for Congress. But I think she is beatable. Let’s see, the issues are;
    - Unemployment
    - Stimulus
    - High property taxes
    - Out of control spending
    - Decreasing security of our nation
    - Cap and trade that will destroy local businesses and peoples family budgets
    - The mindless assaults on banks and their employees

    Wow, seems like a historic opportunity to win some seats. Why do you think nobody is running? Because as I have said, ad nauseum, the NY GOP is a bunch of quasi liberal, backroom dealing, inbred, close-minded pretenders. Proof? Look at all the people they are trying to get in races. They want guarantees and all types of deals? Why? Because they are close enough to know how these guys work.

    We need some “tea party” grass roots candidates to challenge both Democrats and the old guard GOP. Until that happens, get used to a decreasing population and a state that is the nation’s laughing stock.

  • notthenews

    The Dems have controlled NY politics for too many years and any conservative Republican sent to Albany finds he has a mountain to climb. All the Dems in NY are liberal socialists and a good share of the GOP are converted Dems. They use the same tactics as DC. They will tell you what you want to hear to get elected and then vote status quo behind closed doors. I fought that dictatorial system in that state for over 35 years and it never came to anything. You want to change it? You must get the people worked up, out in the open, off their apathetic butts and scare the living bejesus out of these cronies.

    kaye has the answer. A tea Party movement. get them going.

  • BA Cyclone

    Any word on why he’s not trying to run for the Senate? Maybe he thinks he’s secure where he is, but he seems like he could be a good candidate to have on our side in the Senate from NY.

    • proudgop

      but I don’t think his imagery would work well in statewide race

      I think he didn’t run cause he couldn’t raise the money for statewide race and the NY GOP has zero infrastructure statewide it makes any lock house candidate like he is worried

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