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Steelman out of the race for the MO Senate seat?

The Hill is reporting tonight that it is looking more and more like Sarah Steelman may decide to forego a challenge to MO Rep. Roy Blunt in the primary for Kit Bond’s Senate seat.  Instead she may try to run for Blunt’s current 7th District House seat in Missouri.

Former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman appears increasingly less likely to run against Blunt, and she acknowledged Monday that she is looking at a possible campaign for Blunt’s open House seat as an alternative.

Steelman said shortly after Sen. Kit Bond’s (R-Mo.) retirement announcement in January that she was leaning toward entering the Senate race, and for a while, it was a foregone conclusion.

But after unleashing a string of Blunt criticisms and opening an exploratory committee in April, she has grown quieter and begun evaluating other options.

She was still largely quiet last week when potential Blunt challenger Tom Schweich and the man who had been promoting him, former Sen. John Danforth (R-Mo.), both changed course and announced their support for Blunt.

Though rarely afraid of ruffling feathers in the GOP establishment — including in a pitched gubernatorial primary with former Rep. Kenny Hulshof (R-Mo.) in 2008 — Steelman told The Hill on Monday that she is worried about hurting the GOP.

Steelman’s advisor offered her some sage advice:

“She was looking at it as: Two men against a woman, she’s got a better shot at winning the race,” the consultant said. “Now it’s her against Blunt, and it’s a Hulshof thing all over again. She would be heavily outspent and she starts down very far in terms of name ID.”

The name ID thing is a big deal – she’s not really a household name around MO, despite the rumblings about her possible Senate run.

Last week I posted a RedHot that indicated that Thomas Schweich has also decided not to pursue the Bond seat, even though he really had never overtly stated an intent to run against Blunt.  Not only has Schweich endorsed Blunt, but so has his “mentor”, former MO Senator John Danforth.

This is a pretty big deal.  While someone else could come forward as a challenger to Blunt, it would appear on the surface that this clears the deck for Blunt to place all of his energy (and money) into opposing Robin Carnahan, currently the only Democrat in the running for Bond’s seat.

Personally, I hope she does run for Blunt’s House seat.  I think she has a very good chance to win there, and if she does, she is then in a good position to challenge the junior MO Senator Claire McCaskill for her seat in 2012.  By then Steelman would have had ample opportunity to make her mark in national politics, learn the DC ropes (realizing, of course, that can bring negatives…), and establish her conservative creds on the national level.

COMMENTS

  • http://briansimpson.wordpress.com Brian Simpson

    that Steelman’s camp is pushing back on this saying that they are keeping all options open.

    Cynically, I (and likely bs) should remind you that Steelman is very good at playing the game of keeping her name in the headlines (or at least the ones that political junkies like us read) so she has name recognition for a different run later.

  • IJB

    IIRC, there’s already a number of candidates in that GOP Primary, and I can’t imagine she would be favored over people who have actually been in that district for decades, working to further the GOP!

  • bs

    And I think she’d have strong support from the MO GOP. I’m not convinced that being in the district for decades brings a whole lot to the table.

  • http://briansimpson.wordpress.com Brian Simpson

    Steelman gets in and the field clears out of the way. She would be the major force in the primary (especially if she talks Blunt into backing her in exchange for her not running in the Senate race…she would have access to his big time bundlers). Anyone who stayed in would do so at major disadvantage.

  • IJB
  • bs
  • http://briansimpson.wordpress.com Brian Simpson

    and none of the other declared candidates could touch the support from the base that Steelman could muster. With a single speech she could have a huge activist following ready to roll (locally and national groups like Club for Growth who love her).

  • http://www.ssce.net/Web-Articles/Web-articles-indexed-authors.html#authors-l JLenardDetroit

    …good at playing the game of keeping her name in the headlines (or at least the ones that political junkies like us read) so she has name recognition for a different run later.

    Is, of course, not an entirely bad thing. We do, IMO, have to do a better job of positioning our Conservative (first choice) Candidates for future runs as I’ve tried to advocate all over RS (here’s one: using Primaries to build up future candidates) and ask Are we preparing Conservatives via 2010 Campaigns for ’12,’14,’16 Races? – shouldn’t we be?!?! there. These things should be done, of course, cooperatively!!!! I’m not sure quick occasional posturing for periodic MSM mentions does enough. Rubio in FL could have and IMO should have been in a better position so we could have had an unquestioned Conservative Candidate poised to be beyond reproach to be challenged, and even if so no worries/concern they (in this case/example Rubio) would be the sure Primary and then eventual General Election Winner.

    Anything short of preparing our Conservative Candidates to be in position, well-known, pre-built STATE-WIDE campaign committees, pre-paved Financial access to the donors lists across States via former connections (rather than having to develop them on the spot and/or real time), etc…. OR the MSM will just play it up (see how with: The “Pretend you’re a Liberal MSM reporter (and Spin the story)” Challenge) to be nothing but (simple divide and conquer us tactics) MSM uses snippets out of context to feed Republican in-fighting narrative additional commentary on that here (speaking out against SoSo discussion) and Media feeding Republican infighting issues we seem so easily prone to being suckered into!

  • Paul Seale

    I can gaurantee you the field wont clear the way.

    I was hired for one of the candidates (Jack Goodman) who is a hard core conservative – even more so than Sarah.

    I would also add that all her bagging on Roy might have hurt her chances down here – people in the district love Roy.. We know a lot of what she was saying about him was wrong.

    In either case, just know im biased about the matter.

  • Paul Seale

    Dont know who you are talking to, but they are wrong.

    There is a lot of grass roots support for a couple of the candidates.. Will things turn up side down if Steelman runs for 7th? Yeah.

    I would add that it probably will drive KY3 reporter David Catanese crazy because at that point its Roy v Robin and we can start talking about SUBSTANCE instead of the rumor mill.. and that dries up his ammo box.

    With that said, I would urge you to research the 7th a little more before drawing conclusions. Remember you are talking about my home district. :)

  • bs

    I hadn’t considered the impact her beating on Blunt would have in that scenario. Good input.

  • Josh Painter

    That love for Roy you say that’s among the peopleis somewhat less than universal.

    - JP