We have been warning about the bad news in the recent polls on Issue 2, and stated why the huge wins they show for the anti-reform side won’t be as big as the polls. Now, the Washington Post is reporting on a leaked memo from liberal mob Progress Ohio to the “We Are Ohio” union front group. They also believe its a LOT closer!
An internal memo from a key labor-backed group in the state is flatly warning that the polls are “flawed” and that a big win for labor is not even “remotely possible.” It adds that the right’s messaging has “worked,” and that there’s good reason to suspect that a “massive amount of voter confusion remains,” suggesting the fight could still go either way.
“Those predicting a blowout for our side are basing their analysis on flawed public polling samples,” reads the memo, which was circulated to labor and political operatives involved in the fight by Brian Rothenberg, the executive director of Progress Ohio, which is partly bankrolled by labor. It was forwarded my way by a source.
The memo goes on to describe some of the same reasons we have stated before why the unions should not be expecting to cruise to a 20 point victory. The language used in the polls is not the same as will appear on the ballot, and previous polls of ballot issues on Ohio have been notoriously innaccurate.
But the memo warns that the question wording in the two polls is so flawed as to be unreliable, because neither poll used the language voters will see on the Issue 2 ballot. “Keep in mind, neither of these polls tested the actual ballot language,” the memo says. “It’s a safe bet, if the actual ‘Issue 2’ language were polled that the margin would have been substantially narrower.”
The memo also points out that public polls on three previous Ohio ballot initiatives — a 2004 same sex marriage ban; a 2005 election reform initiative; and a 2009 measure to build casinos — were all off by wide margins.
Indeed, two years ago today, polls showed support for the casino measure winning by 18%. It ended up passing with only 52% of the vote.
Do not give up on this issue, Ohio! We need these reforms to help bring back our state. Get involved by visiting Building a Better Ohio. Even if you just forward this video about the enormous successes of the Wisconsin reforms, do something now! Light up Twitter and Facebook with it.
And of course, you can even get out and vote early NOW. Vote YES on Issue 2.
Cross-posted on Third Base Politics
Jeff Emanuel
Dan Spencer
Neil Stevens
Caleb Howe
Daniel Horowitz
Lori Ziganto
Moe Lane
"Don't Give Up on This Issue"
conservativecurmudgeon (Diary) Thursday, October 27th at 9:20PM EDT (link)Damned straight..!
5555!!
papabear (Diary) Friday, October 28th at 11:20AM EDT (link)nt
Conservative election officials
burkeanmind2011 Friday, October 28th at 8:24PM EDT (link)should take a cue from the Wisconsin elections and withhold some Republican ballots from the unofficial vote tally, before producing them again later. That way, the liberals won’t be able to produce enough magic ballots from cemeteries.
Atmosphere of Union Intimidation in Ohio
Ausonius (Diary) Saturday, October 29th at 11:21AM EDT (link)It is not unknown for private property sporting stickers or signs for a candidate or issue disliked by unions to be – very mysteriously – vandalized.
My wife substituted as a teacher recently at a public school, where unionized teachers were discussing in the lunchroom how to get back at a local grocery store deemed to be anti-union and pro-Issue 2. Not wanting to have a flat tire, she stayed silent.
She has also prevented me from placing a pro-Issue 2 sign in front of our house, saying she does not want to take the chance.
While it might be a nice fantasy to stay up all night with a shotgun full of rock salt to teach union thugs a lesson, the reality is quite different of course.
I try to stay optimistic: if you have followed my writings and the one diary (q.v.) which I wrote on the missteps by Republicans in this campaign, you know that I am not really optimistic.
A loss by 2% or 3%, rather than 15%, however, is still a loss.
Ausonius: 310-395 A.D. Teacher, Poet, Consul, General, Farmer.
Personal Tutor to the future St. Paulinus of Nola and to young Gratian, heir to the throne during the turbulent final years of the Western Roman Empire. When his former student Gratian was assassinated, Ausonius threw up his hands and retired to his farm in Gaul. Rome was captured by barbarians 14 years after his death.
Cato@rock.com
AND…Know Your Czars…Before They Hit BIG BRObama’s Unemployment Line in November: http://www.czarcards.us/
Beating the Unions in Ohio ... Message from Wisconsin.
Martin Knight (Diary) Saturday, October 29th at 10:13PM EDT (link)The Baroness Margaret Thatcher had a saying; “First you win the argument, then you win the vote.”
This is how you win the argument.
Let me spell it out; get a bunch of your statisticians and Think Tank (e.g. The Buckeye Institute) folks, have them sit down with a bunch of Adobe Flash animators (heck, hire the same folks the MacIver Institute and AFP folks did in Wisconsin) and get something like this explaining the facts and figures, and the hows, whys, whats, wheres and whens. Cut it down to five minutes (if at all possible). This really should take no more than two days, three days at the max.
Remember Obama’s informercial? Who says the same tactic can’t work for Republicans? Spend all the money necessary (don’t flinch) to have it put on Ohioans TV screens for the last three to five days before the referendum – can you honestly say defeating the unions would not be worth a few million dollars, even tens of millions of dollars? I’d also recommend putting it on a web page with a nice big PayPal logo right beside it.
And, oh yeah, put it online as well all over your websites – every Republican elected official in Ohio should have it embedded on the front page of his or her website.
End point; you win. The voters in the “middle” need things thoroughly spelled out for them otherwise they go with what they see on their TV screens. This does exactly that.
Excellent Example of What Republican Leaders Should Be Doing
Ausonius (Diary) Sunday, October 30th at 10:05AM EDT (link)Instead of doing nothing, and when they do move into action, doing the same old thing, they should already have presented a similar ad.
Conservatives need not be conservative in the negative sense of the word. Creativity based on conservative principles should be our hallmark: perhaps this is why Herman Cain’s campaign is attracting attention.
A democracy ignorant is a democracy disastrous.
Ausonius: 310-395 A.D. Teacher, Poet, Consul, General, Farmer.
Personal Tutor to the future St. Paulinus of Nola and to young Gratian, heir to the throne during the turbulent final years of the Western Roman Empire. When his former student Gratian was assassinated, Ausonius threw up his hands and retired to his farm in Gaul. Rome was captured by barbarians 14 years after his death.
Cato@rock.com
AND…Know Your Czars…Before They Hit BIG BRObama’s Unemployment Line in November: http://www.czarcards.us/
A better contingency plan:
akafroman Sunday, October 30th at 11:04PM EDT (link)When/If SB 5 loses, Kasich needs to come out and say: “We hear the voters, we will not restrict bargaining rights for unions. However, we believe that union members should have the right to associate or not associate themselves with a union as a condition of employment”…..and then pass right-to-work legislation…..which is a lot more feasible and politically popular than restricting bargaining “rights”….it’s not as good as restricting public unions outright, but it would still be a huge victory…..and any possible referendum would coincide with the 2012 election and the unions would not have turnout advantage.
The best way to defeat this Issue
ohiohistorian (Diary) Monday, October 31st at 5:48AM EDT (link)The best way to defeat this issue is to get out and VOTE! Don’t sit and look at polls, make YOUR opinion count.
I will vote early. The Democrats will vote often.
““Liberals tend to put the onus of your success on society and conservatives on you and your family.”
—Dennis Prager