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Only 15 more Senate votes needed for cap and trade

Darren Samuelsohn reports cap and trade backers are 15 Senate votes short of the 60 needed for passage.

According to Samuelsohn’s article, the Senate count stands at 45 yes or probably yes, 32 no, and 23 fence sitters:

To start, there are 45 senators in the “yes” or “probably yes” camp, including Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), Environment and Public Works Chairwoman Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) and Maine Republicans Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe.

There are 23 fence sitters. Alaska’s Mark Begich (D) and Lisa Murkowski (R) need to keep their home state’s oil and gas interests in mind, while Ohio’s Sherrod Brown (D) and Michigan Democrats Carl Levin and Debbie Stabenow are pressing for provisions that help agriculture and their state’s ailing manufacturing and auto industries.

There are also 32 Republicans who are unlikely to vote for a climate bill of the shape and size that Obama and congressional Democratic leaders envision, including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Missouri Sen. Kit Bond and Oklahoma Sen. James Inhofe, an outspoken skeptic about the link between man-made greenhouse gas emissions and climate change.

Have things change so much since the 1990′s? Back then, the House approved President Clinton’s energy tax, also known as the BTU tax. That vote was as close as Friday’s on the Democrats’ cap and trade energy tax:

In 1993, the legislation containing the Clinton energy tax was adopted on a 219-to-213 vote with 38 Democrats defecting. On Friday, the House bill was approved 219 to 212, with 44 Democrats defecting.

Clinton’s energy tax didn’t pass the senate and the Democrats lost the senate in the following election.

The whole point of both Clinton’s BTU energy tax and the current cap and trade energy tax is to price fossil fuels out of the market. Imposing higher energy costs on our economy, costs which don’t apply to economic competitors such as China and India, does not make sense for a struggling economy facing Obama’s out of control spending, higher taxes and ever growing multi-trillion dollar deficits.

In 1997 the Senate unanimously passed, 95–0, the Byrd-Hagel Resolution, which stated the sense of the Senate was that the United States should not be a signatory to any protocol that did not include binding targets and timetables for developing nations as well as industrialized nations or “would result in serious harm to the economy of the United States.” Byrd-Hagel prevented Clinton from even trying to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, which also would have put the U.S. economy at an economic disadvantage to China and India.

Have things really changed so since the 1990s that the U.S. Senate would vote to give our economic competitors an advantage?

President Obama hasn’t even tried to wiggle out of his admissions that under his cap and trade plan electricity rates will skyrocket and would bankrupt anyone who builds a coal-powered plant.

Have things really changed so much that the Senate would vote cause electricity rates to skyrocket and to bankrupt anyone who builds a coal powered plant?

COMMENTS

  • Doc Holliday

    do yo know why she would jump of the leftist cult reservation on this one?

    • randy streu

      nt.

      • Doc Holliday

        I could see Reid doing it just to show Obama he doesn’t control the Senate and because of Reid’s crappy poll numbers.

        • randy streu

          on the CapnTrade

          • Doc Holliday

            i read it wrong.

    • gazill

      Boxer is a guaranteed yes, whether she thinks it is far enough or not. i question whether she could read it or not, but understanding any legislation before voting is not a requirement for her. My bile level is rising uncontrollably thinking about her….ugh

  • http://impudent.blognation.us/blog kyle8

    needed for passage. Sixty is what is needed to avoid a filibuster which will never ever happen for any reason, ever again, whatsoever, so don’t even pretend that it will.

    • Doc Holliday

      nt

      • http://impudent.blognation.us/blog kyle8

        there was a real filibuster? And can you imagine the living pukes who make up the republican senators actually sustaining a filibuster?

        • Doc Holliday

          but I thought the Repubs would be open to the “Gentlemans Filibuster”. If they are not prepared to fight this, then they are the pukes you allege. I hope someone has some inside info on this.

        • Swamp_Yankee

          If the Dems didnt fear a filibuster on EFCA, they would have voted on it already. People often say a filibuster is irrelevant and that hogwash. Its very important.

          The reason you dont see them is because the Dems to bring things to the floor if the threat of a filibuster is real.

          • http://impudent.blognation.us/blog kyle8

            which should seem obvious, and for good reason. I might be wrong, But I don’t imagine any way it will ever happen again in our lifetimes.

          • Swamp_Yankee

            is the only thing keeping union thugs fron invading the South and the West.

            Of course it matters. They state so themselves all the time.

            http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132×8175655

          • http://impudent.blognation.us/blog kyle8

            union thugs? I don’t see it. The Dem’s know that the rinos in the senate are paper tigers. You think Lindsy Graham has them shaking in their boots?

          • Swamp_Yankee

            I stating simple fact here. Harry Reid has not brought EFCA to the floor because he does not have 60. That’s just a fact.

          • redneck_hippie

            that if Reid brings it, he necessarily believes that they have 60?

            I heard somewhere they didn’t think it would come up in the Senate “until the Fall.” Guess it takes that time to scrape the quid pro quo together.

          • Swamp_Yankee

            Of course Reid has to assuage the union, but read his own aid’s words.

            http://www.thenation.com/blogs/jstreet/400495/harry_reid_on_efca

            With this sort of thing, its not exactly balck and white. The unions want their bill passed. He could probably get 60 with substantial compromise, but they would rather wait until Franken is seated.

          • redneck_hippie
        • AceInTX
          • 6eorge Jetson

            1993-1994? Clinton was mostly stymied after DADT (passed by executive order, if memory serves.)

            Under Bush 2007-2008, Repubs had the veto, which meant Republicans only needed 1/3 rd in both houses to block any clearly Democratic-favored legislation (the override).

            Under Bush and Clinton 1995-2006, Republicans had at least a majority in the House, so any Democratic-favored legislation could be killed there.

            Thus, in my lifetime, the Republican filibuster has been the main weapon only in 64-68, 77-80, 93-94, and 09.

            All present Republicans but Snowe & Collins filibustered Porkulus.

          • 6eorge Jetson

            nt

          • AceInTX

            Porkulous wasn’t filibustered because of Snowe, Collins, and Specter as you correctly pointed out…

  • snewb098

    Is up for re-election in 2010. That’s the key because they
    don’t care about this country if re-election is 2012 or 2014.
    We need names!
    I will dig out their home & office numbers!!
    And Post them!

    • DerKrieger

      She’s a D in a state that went 67% for McCain. She needs to be deluged with calls.

      If her aides ask what zip code you’re calling from give them 72223 for Little Rock or 72712 for Bentonville.

      They don’t need any more than that.

  • smitch61

    Being in Michigan, I can tell you these two boobs are completely useless… Remember how congressman John Dingell said “it is a cap and tax” well that bafoon voted yes on Friday AFTER his office stated he was against it last week..,.

    Deb and Carl run with the leftist crowd, when the GOP were talking about a Bankruptcy in December for the auto companies to restructure, the two were all over the media here in Michigan talking about those nasty republicans and how Michigan is in bad shape because of the Bush policies……which policies? not sure, they just use the mantra for the politically ignorant and it continues to work for them.

    Let me ask… can we get this repealed in the event this bogus thing passes?

    • http://andrightlyso.com/ civil_truth

      To repeal it would take 60 Senate plus and a House majority and a President who won’t veto the repeal. (Else you’d need 2/3rds to override – not happening.)

      That means 2013 at the earliest if we replace Obama with a pro-repeal president – which means a minimium of 4 years of ruin and irreversible damage.

      And again, that presumes in addition to a favorable president, you would turn around 20 Senate votes in 4 years and recapture the House. A rather tall order, especially when you’re going up against religious fervor (i.e. The Religion of Global Warming) and profiteers (who are the high priests).

      Which is why we have to beat it in 2009.

      • http://theminorityreportblog.com David Hinz

        drive a stake through the heart of Cap and Trade right NOW!

      • AceInTX

        that’s what the Dems have going for them…not only can they count on elected Republicans to cave when they control congress…but they can count on Republicans to never go back an fix the damage that was done so that when the Dems get back in control…they have the same foundation to build from!

        • AceInTX

          that?s what the Dems have going for them?not only can they count on elected Republicans to cave when they, (The Dems) control congress?but they can count on Republicans to never go back an fix the damage that was done so that when the Dems get back in control?they have the same foundation to build from!

          That’s why they work so hard to cram so much through in the first two years after Carter, Clinton, and Obama were elected…the more they pass no…the larger the socialist foundation they will have to build from should they lose control and eventually return!

          They take the long view and Republicans run around like chickens with their heads cur of reacting to the Democrats instead of driving the agenda and reversing the Dem’s policies!

      • tanstaafl1019

        but I will say this: A lot of people out there vote with their wallets. I gave up long ago trying to predict the outcomes of elections (I’m the editor of a small town newspaper, and I have a hard time even guessing which city council and school board members will be elected), but I do know that if we start seeing gas up around $3-$4 a gallon, sharp hikes in natural gas and electric bills and prices of foods and other goods spike because of energy costs, you might be surprised how many people turn out in ’10 to get rid of the officials who foisted C&T on us.

  • smitch61

    Once Obama brought up the idea of government controlled bankruptcy, all of a sudden the governor, stabenow, and levin were all for it……. What a brilliant man in the white house.. The hypocracy of these two is stunning to say the least.

  • marshmom

    n/t

  • pilgrim

    Alaska, Montana, Louisiana, and the Dakotas could be in a world of hurt getting reelected if they vote Aye on the bill. All of the House members from these states voted Nay.

    • Raven

      Since we already know Stevens will be running against him.

      He has nothing else. He has no other possible way to win re-election, and therefor nothing to lose by voting contrary to his electorate’s wishes.

      • Kyle-MI

        Stevens already has his exoneration. For the good of his state, for the good of the GOP, for the good of the U.S. please stay retired. He has done his duty. He has done more than enough for (and to) the rest of us. Please just enjoy the rest of your life.

        • Raven

          We want him back.

        • Achance

          comes up. That is about the only thing that would stop him from running and if he runs, he’ll win. What are the odds of a man that age completing the term?

          He’ll want the vindication of getting his seat back even if he knows he isn’t likely to complete the term. He justifiably believes that it was stolen from him. I know lots of purists here don’t like him, but Alaska could sure use him in dealing with Comrade Obama’s agenda and the Country would be a whole lot better off with Stevens in that seat than the Boy Senator from Anchorage. Begich has no natural constituency here as he owes his seat to the USDOJ, so he has to be a tool for Comrade Obama and Harry Reid.

    • 6eorge Jetson

      The only exception to WV strongly favoring Blue is when Blue wants to shrink or shut down the coal industry. When faced with a Blue coal adversary, WV turns Red in a hurry.

      • asmith1022

        Byrd would vote against it as is, that is if he wasn’t in the hospital, however im worried about Rockefeller. Of course if he was to vote for it, it would probably be the only chance to ever unseat him, but I don’t think he would be that stupid.

        • 6eorge Jetson

          and not 60 percent. Nay and unable to attend have the same effect. In either case, that Senator’s vote doesn’t count toward 60.

      • pilgrim

        .

  • louisiana

    reason, I’ve been selected to participate in a telephone “town forum”.
    John Thune & Orrin Hatch will be taking questins. Anyone have any
    questions?

    • DerKrieger

      If the massively opposed health care and CAT bills pass, how will you (Thune and Hatch) overturn or repeal them if the GOP recaptures the Congress. And if a repeal isn’t possible how will they minimize the negative impact of both?

  • Xasteius

    Or do they think they can run this country into the ground before the 2012 and 2010 elections and stage a revolution before the smell hits the fan?

    • http://impudent.blognation.us/blog kyle8

      Most of them do not think that it will doom the economy, seriously, they are really that stupid,

      Consider:

      They don’t believe that massive borrowing will cause inflation
      They don’t believe that taxes slow down economic growth
      They believe that just raising the minimum wage is a good way to make poor people better off
      They believe that the tiny effect of CO2 in the atmosphere is killing the planet
      They believe that stopping all increases in oil production will lead to lower prices for oil

      Yes, they really are that stupid.

      • pilgrim

        If they are representing Merrill Lynch et al they believe the “trade” part of cap and trade is going to make some big money for their peeps. They really don’t think any farther ahead than that.

        I think this is why all the House members from MA, CT, RI, and DE voted Aye.

        • AceInTX

          maybe entire markets being formed to trade in emission credits? whole trading companies and exchanges put in place to trade in carbon credits, selling excess credits, purchasing needed credits for inefficient factories and businesses?

          I mean…come on…this is a Bonanza for traders and investment banking!

          • pilgrim

            So what is this bill called? Cap and trade. Where do trades take place? We’re going to start trading what? We’re going to start trading carbon emissions. We’re going to start trading pollution credits. Well, where do trades get managed? Where do they take place? Who do you think is going to do the trading on this? Would anybody be surprised if it ends up that Goldman Sachs or Wall Street in general ends up — this is what I missed. This is what I missed. You’ve got these Northeastern Republicans — New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, it’s all the same — who are tied to Wall Street.

          • AceInTX

            but give him the credit….we’re often on the same page when it comes to this kind of thing whether I’ve heard him or not….kind of scary really.

          • AceInTX

            but the idea is the same…GE, Ford, and a few others will win big in this too I’m told.

          • pilgrim

            Sometimes things get taken out of context when only a portion of what Rush said is repeated. Here is a little more of the transcript for you.

            Now, I find myself in an odd position because I’m a huge capitalist and I always have been as you well know. I’m a huge supporter and believer in the free market, but something seems rigged here. The whole piece of legislation is rotten, it is horrible, it is a disaster. In fact, there’s a story in Bloomberg today, it is going to increase our oil imports, where the objective is to decrease them. You know how it’s going to increase our oil exports? People who produce domestically are going to have to shut down and transfer the jobs overseas to avoid all the taxes. Meaning we’re going to have to import even more oil. The usual unintended consequences of the brainiac wizards of smart in the US House.

          • AceInTX

            and I don’t disagree…even with that portion of it…because there is someone in all those corporations and banks who will profit from this…it just makes me cringe a little when I here Rush…(or read in this instance)…talking about Main Street vs Wall Street

          • 6eorge Jetson

            “There’s an industry out there that would like to profit from govt manufactured hooey.” Of course, the hooey will cost the average American, but those in the industry positioned to siphon some of the unnecessary activity and money are strongly for it. As are their congressmen.”

            The industry happens to be Wall Street.

          • AceInTX

            but I don’t disagree with any of it

    • briann

      Or do they think they can run this country into the ground before the 2012 and 2010 elections and stage a revolution before the smell hits the fan?

      I think most are counting on the MSM to cover for them. When the country is destroyed they will call the AP to run another “analysis” that says it is Bush’s fault. Heck, most people still think that Hoover caused the Great Depression.

      -Bri

      • IJB

        Those that think they can do a exact repeat of past history are often in for a rude awakening.

        They try something like the Great Depression policies a second time, and they may find themselves at the ends of bayonets, not a shower of roses.

  • Xasteius

    Or do they think they can run this country into the ground before the 2012 and 2010 elections and stage a revolution before the smell hits the fan?

    Whoops, the diary apparently states that almost half the Senate DOES think that…

    • Repair_Man_Jack

      Yes, they can be that stoopid. If the majority of the pressure on them favors this bill, it will pass with flying colors…

  • louisiana

    Sotomayor’s confirmation

  • Swamp_Yankee

    Take out ads in the local papers. Get talking points to local talk radio hosts make this a urban/coastal/elitist vs. the heartland thing.

  • redneck_hippie

    Two words. Al. Gore.

    Well, actually, five words. The. Church. of Al. Gore.

    I am not liking the way this looks at all. On porkulus, the house Republicans held together and shut it out completely. Having 8 defectors in the House was a bad sign. Which is more likely, an effective filibuster or a paper-it-over compromise?

  • IJB

    Just like Card Check.

    • redneck_hippie

      Are you basing your prediction on a fear that the electorate will rise up and demand transparency (posting the COMPLETE text of the bill five days before the vote)? Or, on a full-fledged senate filibuster whereby the minority party shreds the “pile of sheet” while the world watches? Or maybe on the cat peeking from the top of the bag, i.e., Caterpillar Face admitting taxes will be raised? Or on some of that pile of fundraising money being spent on ads pointing out who yes’ed and who no’ed?

      Hmmm. Am I close?

      • IJB

        Swamp is right on this one – the Dems won’t bring a massive tax increase to the floor unless they already have the 60 votes needed to pass it.

        The alternative would be to try to fold this into reconciliation (if they know they have 51, but not 60 votes), but I think if they try that, there will literally be riots in the streets.

        As it is, I’m doubting they can even get to 51…

        • redneck_hippie

          I also think the Ds are just clever enough to be scared sheetless about a naked vote (by this I mean not having bipartisan fig leaves). I’m not hopeful the bill will be shelved, and I’m not quitting, either.

          The bashtids need this bill to fund health care, it will make it to the floor, but they’ll reserve reconciliation for Ration Care.

          • AceInTX

            he’ll get them the Republicans Harry Reid needs…

            count on it!!!

  • zachv

    I’m seeing numbers, but not names. Am I missing something here?

    • http://fairfaxgardener.blogspot.com ddstrain

      with the energy tax. They tell me that he’s reading it and will make an educated decision. Not holding my breath though.

      Warner’s (D-VA) office tells me he hasn’t taken a position.

      All you Virginians, make the calls to Warner and Webb. Call every day. I call everyday whilst in traffic.

      • AceInTX
  • Raven

    He owes Reid and company too much.

    Murkowski, if she Is a fence sitter should be easily tipped our way.

    • Achance

      but if they can’t he’ll vote with the caucus. he has no natural constituency here, having been elected by the FBI/PIS, so he won’t buck the Party.

      Murkowski will vote against it, but, Alaskan to the core, will play hard to get and get all she can.

      • Raven

        I hope she gets something good. But in the meantime, I just want her No vote.

  • muffin

    Have written both our Senators. I asked them to confirm to me by email that they will vote NO on this legislation. I have not heard, so I will call every day until I get an answer. Anyone living in Florida who wants to call:

    Bill Nelson (D):
    1-888-671-4091 (inside FL only)
    1-202-224-5274 (DC)

    Mel Martinez (R):
    1-866-630-7106 (inside FL only)
    1-202-224-3041 (DC)

    Let them know where we stand on this new tax.

  • Raven

    There’s not enough spine in that man to vote No in a fit of pique.

    • redneck_hippie
    • IJB

      …Just to prove he’s an ornery cuss.

      I don’t envy the Dems having to put up with him now.
      I’m just glad *we* don’t.

  • Return to Revolution

    unless he has cloture makes for a winning strategy? As if Clinton’s bill’s failure in the senate caused the 1994 revolution. I think dems are in for a slaughter no matter what happens with this bill – the only question is how much irrepairable damage will be done between now and 2010.

  • http://www.ssce.net/Web-Articles/Web-articles-indexed-authors.html#authors-l JLenardDetroit

    to quote Me during the House discussions:

    Gary Peters, maybe Ehlers/Stupak/others in MI trading GM, GE, Arena, Cobo, promises for CapAndTrade (CAT) vote

    was discussed on WJR 760 AM (Detroit, MI) this morning… The Chevy AVEO is the GM small car but Democrats are not happy enough with those production levels and want the very popular Pontiac G6 gone (as well as forcing GM to produce yet another even smaller car than the AVEO).

    It is said that 1,400 jobs will be created/saved at Orion Plant and that Peters is trading his vote for that Plant (no doubt believing that will get his re-election) despite the 4,000 projected job-losses CAT will cause over time and the countless Taxes CAT will bring to Michigan citizens.

    More MI CAT Trade-offs: GE jobs and Det. Red Wings….

    yep… GE announced some jobs “out of the Blue” are coming to Michigan… Any connection to promised votes?!?!? I think so?. PLUS?. The Detroit Red Wings OPT-OUT of the Lease of Detroit for Joe Louis Arena to ?explore other options? ? Any bets on the STIMULUS MONEY PROMISES to/for the area that will be made in the name of JOBS to build a new Arena in the Detroit area for yet more CAT Votes?!?!?

    Call Michigan Reps and let them know that TRADE-OFFS for their Vote are NOT acceptable and all these supposed ?promised? jobs will mean NOTHING when Michigan suffers infinately further under CAT job-losses and Taxes!!!

    Ehlers, Stupak, and perhaps other MI (CALL ANY/ALL OF THEM) votes could swing on these Jobs/Projects promises… Call them and let them know trading 1,400 jobs for 4,000 lost and higher Taxes IS NOT A POSITIVE MOVE!!!!

    They will be running on the Created/Saved Jobs BS….

  • AceInTX

    Everyone thinks it will fail in the Senate…but don’t count out Ried’s jack booted tactics and McCain’s capacity for self aggrandizing pomposity!

    • AceInTX
  • Carol Tarasewicz

    I called John Kerry’s office last week, I was treated as if I were an annoyance in his office, they did not care that I was upset with his wishing the missing governor was Sarah Palin or that I am against Cap & Tax & Govt Health care.

    I do not bother to call Ted K’s office, if I sign petition, etc I get response, It’s rather funny that Kennedy’s office responds via email or mail with his opinion but Kerry is above all that, He has never responded, Must be why Rush calls him haughty John Kerry.

    Others I called from other states had VM full.

  • http://www.the41stvote.org rcov092

    a hangnail can effectively impair your ability to direct your aide to type.

    • bk

        

  • http://applescorneroftheorchard.blogspot.com/ Pomme

    “…one of these days, you and I, are going to spend our sunset years telling our children and our children’s children what it once was like in America when men were free.”

  • bk

     

  • Joe_Cor

    the Weeklystandard blog quoted a Congressional Republican strategist who said this bill was dead in the Senate. And now I read they have 45 votes already, with 23 fence sitters to pluck 5 more votes from? How won’t this thing pass, if those numbers are true? Are the numbers true, or are Republicans strategists really that clueless? Are they banking on wishful thinking instead of devising a real strategy to try to stop this monstrosity?

  • Trelaina

    Note on RedHot says she is a possible NO vote. I would have figured her for a Reid sheep, but if there’s a chance, I’ll gladly burn up her phone line and website.

    That said, her main website is working but her contact page is down. Interesting :)

    Well, I got the phone number, and understand she’ll be in my hometown over the recess.

  • muffin

    Received an email from Nelson this morning stating he will vote YES on cap & trade. He spewed quite a bit of “global warming” in his email. I will respond back to him that when it comes to his reelection, he will lose my vote, my husband’s vote, and I will campaign against him by letting everyone know exactly why they are having trouble paying their higher electric bills.

    I have yet to hear from Mel Martinez.

  • zachv

    Feingold – Yes.
    Kohl – “Has not issued a statement yet.”

    Call Kohl’s office. :D