New Years Day I crawled out on a small limb and predicted Sen. Ted Cruz will win the Iowa Republican Caucuses. A lot happened during January. Donald Trump unloaded everything he could on Cruz and regained his lead in the Iowa polls. Some insiders think the race between is too close call. More seem ready to call it for Trump. But its still all about the Campaigns’ ground game. The Caucuses goers can’t be counted until they are turned out  and show up.

So the way I see it now, an hour before it happens, Ted Cruz will prevail. Despite Trump’s attacks, being everyone’s punching bag during the last debate, the polling and even the surge in Iowa voter registrations, Cruz will win it the old fashioned way. The Cruz campaign, by nearly all accounts, has the best ground game. More Iowans report being contacted by the Cruz campaign. My biggest concern is that the guy running Trump’s ground game ran Santorum’s surprise win in 20112. Can he do it again? Not tonight. Trump has his die hard faithful followers. But the Trump campaign must overcome Trump’s Unpopularity, horrific unfavorable ratings and his problem with women.

So My money is still on Cruz