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Voter shift in California??

By: californiasam (Diary)  |  June 16th, 2010 at 06:16 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

There’s a new poll out by Pajamas Media that shows a dead heat between Fiorina and Boxer and between Whitman and Brown.

That’s good news, but not really the interesting part. They go on to say:

In a surprise result, party affiliation reported by respondents showed a 3% majority for the GOP; these results were adjusted to match the usual proportion of a 7% Democrat majority. If party identification has really shifted by 10% toward the GOP in California, this would have dramatic implications for the election in California and for the United States as a whole.

Wow. No counting chickens yet, but , wow.

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COMMENTS

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  • IJB

    Currently, the registration-by-party totals in CA is 44.5%D/31%R. It’s going to take a *lot* to overcome that.

    Also, other polls have shown Obama support above 50% in CA, and even support for ObamaCare was above 50% here.

    IOW, none of this tracks with a “plurality Republican” electorate.

    That said, it would not surprise me at all if, *by turnout*, there are more Republicans voting on election day in November in CA than Democrats – something similar to that happened in 1994.

  • renny

    Schumer has a counter-Citizens United bill to again stop corporations from exercising First Amend, rights in elections just affirned by the Sup. Ct. Of course, it will exempt unions and all the other interest groups on the Left.

    NJ is trying to pass a bill to make NRA members reveal themselves and their addresses. This “legislation” is another blatant attempt by a Dem. leg. to suppress participation and voting by a membership that is not in the tank for the Left.

    If we want to win elections, we have to stop the Dems. in their tracks. No krap and trade. No UN small arms treaty. Just say, NOOOOO.

  • californiasam

    Let’s look at my county nov 08 to nov 09. Registration is 50% Dem, 26% GOP and 24% mostly decline to state.

    For CA-11 congressional race,
    Nov 08 results:
    67% Dem candidate
    30% GOP candidate
    3 % Other candidate

    Nov 09 results:
    55% Dem candidate
    41% GOP candidate
    4% Other candidate

    I worked the polls Nov 09 and spoke with many who did, too. There was no huge GOP turnout – it was pretty balanced, so something else was going on. Obama’s approval ratings were still sky high out here and Dems still went from +37 to +14, with a well-known Dem candidate and unknown GOP.

    I worked the polls last week, too, and saw more GOP enthusiasm. But truly, it’s the decline to states who can really make the difference here. That’s where party affiliation, not party registration comes into play.

    As I said, though, too early to count chickens.

  • IJB

    I never said there hasn’t been a swing to Republicans in CA: there *has*, not just in the CA-10 race, but also in CA-32 as well. I’ve calculated the swing in CA to be about R+10 on average.

    What I dispute is that the swing has been large enough to make Republicans a *majority* statewide.

    And my basis for that is the continuing support of Obama – if you want to know how Dem-leaning a state is, just look at the Obama and ObamaCare poll numbers – if they’re over 50%, as they are in CA, you definitely have a Dem-leaning state.

    That’s all I’m saying.

  • californiasam

    Not being a poo here, but I’m obviously missing something. Is it the word ‘majority’ rather than ‘advantage’?

    Your points also made me look at the details of the poll: http://pajamasmedia.com/files/2010/06/CA-Results-2.pdf . On page 2, the party affiliation numbers are GOP 38% and Dem 45%.

    I’m an engineer, not a statistician, but where does their R+3 claim come from?

    Pls feel free to just send me to another resource; I really want to understand this.

    btw – my bad, I’ve worked on both CA-10 and CA-11 races and misspoke, thanks for the correction.

  • californiasam

    You have a good idea, but this isn’t the place to put it.

  • IJB

    Neil, and the Brits, do that. :)

    I just look at the swing on the ‘R’ side – and in almost every recent CA special election race I’ve looked at, there’s been up to a 10% gain by the various Republican candidates (at least in Dem districts…):

    30% -> 41% in CA-10
    27.5% -> 33% in CA-32
    32% -> 41% in CA Assembly district 43

    As for the R+3 thing – I think they’re trying to claim the the CA electorate has gone from voting D+7 vs. the “national average” to R+3 vs. the national average. At least, I *think* that’s what they’re trying to say – I can’t tell what PM means by that.

    In conclusion, I don’t trust this poll that PM is quoting (check out the comments on the page you linked to…), just based on their getting a response from 95% of their respondents as being “certain to vote” in the next election – just based on that alone, I don’t buy this poll…

  • californiasam

    As I said, I’m working on the CA-11 race and now the Fiorina race. I talk to lots of folks on the phone and the level of angst/enthusiasm is amazing. Facebook conversations with my old high school friends (all libs from SF) are showing a growing discontent/awakening.

    Each one of us, in our own way, is moving the country back to The Constitution.