« BACK  |  PRINT

RS

MEMBER DIARY

Who Will Control The Senate? A Look at the 7 Most Hotly Contested Races

By: Candice Lanier (Diary)  |  November 1st, 2012 at 08:13 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Updated – 11/2/2012

According to Rasmussen tracking, conducted through telephone surveys, seven of the 33 Senate races are hotly contested and too close to call at this time.

Toss Up Races

Connecticut

Democratic Congressman Chris Murphy now holds his biggest lead yet over Republican Linda McMahon–Murphy with 48% of the vote to McMahon’s 47%. One percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.

Florida

Incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson is ahead by three-points in Florida’s U.S. Senate race. Nelson has earned 49% support with 46% going to his Republican challenger, Congressman Connie Mack.  Two percent (2%) like some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.

Montana

Democratic incumbent Jon Tester and his Republican challenger, Congressman Denny Rehberg, are now tied in Montana’s U.S. Senate race. Tester and Rehberg have each garnered 48% support. Three percent (3%) like another candidate in the race, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

Ohio

Incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown has clinched 50% support for the first time in his bid for reelection in Ohio. Brown has 50% support to Republican challenger Josh Mandel’s 48%. One percent (1%) prefer another candidate in the race, and another one percent (1%) are undecided.

Pennsylvania

The U.S. Senate race is tied in Pennsylvania. Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey, Jr. has 46% of the state’s support, while Republican Tom Smith has 45%. Nine percent (9%) are still undecided.

Virginia

Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican George Allen are still neck-and-neck in Virginia’s U.S. Senate race. Kaine has gained 49% support to Allen’s 48%. Three percent (3%) are still undecided.

Wisconsin

Former Governor Tommy Thompson and Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin are tied in Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race. Thompson holds 48% support to Baldwin’s 47%. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.

—–

Much is at stake in the battle for Senate control.  The GOP has 37 seats not up for grabs while the Democrats have 30.  Republicans are expected to win 10 of the 33 seats up for grabs while Democrats are expected to pick up 16.  In order for the GOP to gain control of the senate, they must win at least 4 of the 7 toss up races, in addition to all the races they are projected to win.

Tags: , , , , , , ,

COMMENTS

POSTING RULES  |  LOGIN TO COMMENT  |  REGISTER TODAY
  • tyman

    Earlier today, Rasmussen put CT in the toss up column, with McMahon only trailing by 1.

    • http://aboutcandicelanier.blogspot.com/ Candice Lanier

      Thanks – I saw that but when I clicked on it (this link http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/election_2012), it took me to the 51%/45% stats instead of the 1 point difference. I’ll check the polls again, in the morning and update the article, as needed.

      • tyman

        Thanks for putting this together! I’m looking for good news where I can find it.

        Part of me wonders if Axelgrease didn’t threaten Gallup if they didn’t stop their polls. Rasmussen is still doing their polls, and their offices are in NJ. Think about that: since Gallup hasn’t done polls for 3-4 days, who would be surprised if they all of sudden showed a tightened result.

        • http://aboutcandicelanier.blogspot.com/ Candice Lanier

          Yeah, I hadn’t thought about that :-) Well, hopefully we’ll have good Senate news on Tues.

  • LukeinNE

    Things are rapidly tightening up here in Nebraska. The Republican candidate, Deb Fischer, has been caught up in a pretty ugly story about her suing her elderly neighbors to claim squatters rights on some land back in the 1990s. She’s gone from 16 ahead to 3 ahead per the Omaha World Herald polling of the race.

    If I had to guess, I’d say Romney’s coattails in this state will be enough to drag her across the finish line, but the race definitely isn’t a gimme anymore.

    • http://aboutcandicelanier.blogspot.com/ Candice Lanier

      That race has tightened up, but from what I’ve read it’s more due to the endorsement by Former Sen. Chuck Hagel, who is a Republican. That apparently helped Kerrey a lot. But, Fischer’s lawsuit might also be playing a role.

    • JKnight

      I think Kerrey’s endorsements by older (retired) Republican Senators probably helps him, but I also think their endorsements are in some respect the older (more moderate) generation getting back at the younger (more conservative, in this case) generation. What former Senators like Chuck Hagel and Alan Simpson don’t seem to understand is that the Senate they were a part of does not really exist anymore, and electing Bob Kerrey only ensures that Harry Reid is further entrenched in power (and beyond the filibuster, almost nothing gets considered in the Senate without Harry Reid agreeing to it first).

  • gawken

    Mack will win in Florida..Romney’s coattails will put him over the top. Florida won’t be that close..there is absolutely no enthusiasm for Obama, as compared to 2008. Nelson seems old, tired, and he is trying to run away from Obama at every opportunity.

    • http://aboutcandicelanier.blogspot.com/ Candice Lanier

      I hope Allen West wins over Murphy, in Florida. Hate to lose him.

  • Ausonius

    In Ohio, all I can tell you is that the Republicans here must have been nuts: Mandel may be an ex-Marine, but he looks and sounds like one of my 8th Graders. In fact I have 8th Graders who look older than he does. At 34, with barely 2 years as Treasurer, where he has been accused of hiring a good number of inexperienced “cronies” and of chronic absenteeism – charges which he has not answered in ads at least – Mandel was always a long shot.

    Sherrod Brown, the Dem, a terrible leftist and “crony” of BIG BRObama and the unions, would not seem to fit Ohio’s ultimately conservative bent. But then again, Ohio spawned Dennis Kucinich!

    Every family has its genetic anomalies! :)

    So can Mandel win on Tuesday? Again, it would seem illogical for people to vote for Romney and not pull the lever – or press the button – for Mandel. But voters are not always logical: ticket-splitting happens often here.

    • http://aboutcandicelanier.blogspot.com/ Candice Lanier

      Not as familiar with Mandel but I wrote an article some time ago about Brown not paying his taxes. And, he’s frequently in the news for other ridiculous behavior. Yes, every family has its genetic anomalies ;-)

    • JKnight

      You would probably know better about Mandel than I would, but he is the type of politician who reminds me of Andre Bauer in South Carolina…started in politics young, said all the key words when it came to ideology and getting the support of the base, bragged about going door to dooor so many times, but also was about nothing more than just pursuing higher office. He never stayed in one office very long until he was already contemplating a run for higher office. He even moved to run for the new Congressional seat that was created (so much for loving his home area). It didn’t work out too well for him in the end.

      • Guest

        Mandel was on Glenn Beck yesterday, saying he was a “Conservative” first and then a Republican. (Thus he has “said all the key words.”) If he had directly answered the cronyism attacks , or – even better – NOT been vulnerable to such attacks to begin with !!! – we would be in much better shape.

      • Guest

        Mandel was on Glenn Beck yesterday, saying he was a “Conservative” first and then a Republican. (Thus he has “said all the key words.”) If he had directly answered the cronyism attacks , or – even better – NOT been vulnerable to such attacks to begin with !!! – we would be in much better shape.

      • Guest

        Mandel was on Glenn Beck yesterday, saying he was a “Conservative” first and then a Republican. (Thus he has “said all the key words.”) If he had directly answered the cronyism attacks , or – even better – NOT been vulnerable to such attacks to begin with !!! – we would be in much better shape.

      • Guest

        Mandel was on Glenn Beck yesterday, saying he was a “Conservative” first and then a Republican. (Thus he has “said all the key words.”) If he had
        directly answered the cronyism attacks , or – even better – NOT been
        vulnerable to such attacks to begin with !!! – we would be in much
        better shape.

      • Ausonius

        Mandel was on Glenn Beck yesterday, saying he was a “Conservative” first and then a Republican. (Thus he has “said all the key words.”)

        If he had directly answered the cronyism attacks , or – even better – NOT been vulnerable to such attacks to begin with !!! – we would be in much better shape.

  • freemkts

    The Republican Senate candidates have been a big disappointment IMO. Yes, many of them could win Tuesday, and who knows, we may even take control of the Senate, but these are still some poor candidates. Why races in ND, NE and AZ are close I’ll never know. We should win these, but they should have all been gimmies.

    Virginia may regret not challenging George Allen for GOP nomination. I’m not sure he’s done anything wrong this time, unlike 2006, but I wonder if a fresh face wouldn’t be doing better. Hopefully Allen will win anyway, but he’s still a meh candidate. I guess being son of a Redskins coach from 40 years ago aint what it used to be.

    Our candidates in OH and FL have been weak. Connie Mack is running probably 10 points behind Romney in FL and he’s a sitting Congressman and son of a former US Senator. Simply pathetic.

    I’m not going to say much about MO and IN, but if we lose we’ll all know why and the new 3rd rail of politics will be never talk about abortion and rape.

    Sadly some of our better candidates may be on the way to losing anyway. Scott Brown is a hero for standing up for conservative issues in MA but it may not be enough behind the Iron Curtain. I don’t know much about Tom Smith in PA, but he seems to be doing better than expected against Casey. Still, I’d be shocked if he won.

    One candidate out there deserves some praise. That’s Dean Heller in NV. Heller looks like he will take down the corrupt Shelley Berkley. Impressive given that Obama may win NV, so Heller is out performing Romney. The GOP should be glad that Heller holds this seat since he is the replacement for John Ensign, who would have been crushed, and we all know the GOP can do much, much worse in NV.

    • jimmyg

      “I’m not going to say much about MO and IN, but if we lose we’ll all know why and the new 3rd rail of politics will be never talk about abortion and rape.”

      “Democratic Senate nominee U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly has built a significant lead in the race for Senate, according to a new Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground Poll.

      The poll released this morning, shows Donnelly leading Republican State TreasurerRichard Mourdock 47 percent to 36 percent, with Libertarian Andrew Horning getting 6 percent.”http://www.jconline.com/article/20121102/ELECTIONS/311020034/Donnelly-takes-lead-over-Mourdock-Senate-race?odyssey=tab%7Ctopnews%7Ctext%7C

      I always felt this was going to end badly. Mourdock is not much of a politician as evidenced by his comments in May as to bi-partishinship, and his more recent comments. I do not believe that Indiana is a conservative state as many believe. After all Obama won this state in 2008.

      • http://aboutcandicelanier.blogspot.com/ Candice Lanier

        Moe posted a piece on the IN race http://www.redstate.com/2012/11/02/howie-politics-refuses-to-release-full-internals-on-donnelly-11-rolling-eyes-in-sen-poll/

    • LukeinNE

      My gut instinct is this: control of the Senate will swing with the presidential election. I think we win in Nebraska, North Dakota, Indiana, Arizona, Montana, maybe Missouri simply because Romney is cleaning Obama’s clock in those areas. Where control gets decided is the trio of Wisconsin, Ohio, and Virginia. I think they’re all so close that a Romney win in the state portends they all fall our way.

      • http://aboutcandicelanier.blogspot.com/ Candice Lanier

        That’s a nice scenario – I really hope it works out that way! :-)

    • http://aboutcandicelanier.blogspot.com/ Candice Lanier

      There are definitely some GOP, in both the House & Senate who are less than stellar, so I know exactly what you mean. It’s unfortunate and it has cost us a lot over the past 4 years, with all the caving in to the left, etc.

    • JKnight

      “Virginia may regret not challenging George Allen for GOP nomination. I’m not sure he’s done anything wrong this time, unlike 2006, but I wonder if a fresh face wouldn’t be doing better. Hopefully Allen will win anyway, but he’s still a meh candidate. I guess being son of a Redskins coach from 40 years ago aint what it used to be.”
      Allen used to be a governor, too…though with governors only serving one term in Virginia, I think that ultimately makes you less memorable. Ultimately, I think Virginia has changed too much in the past decade or so for it to really be of much help. People probably remember the guy who was thinking of running for President until 2006 rather than the guy who was their former governor.

      “Connie Mack is running probably 10 points behind Romney in FL and he’s a sitting Congressman and son of a former US Senator. Simply pathetic.”

      The thing that gets me is that Nelson has always been one of those perenially challenged Senators (including Stabenow, for another example) whose approval ratings are never high and who never seem to do anything noteworthy. Everytime he’s up, we hear about how vulnerable he is, but somehow Republican candidates do not seem strong enough. If he wins, it will just be due to a majority not thinking there is any viable alternative.

      “I’m not going to say much about MO and IN, but if we lose we’ll all know why and the new 3rd rail of politics will be never talk about abortion and rape.”

      Except we know in the future there will more “gotcha” attempts to get just those kinds of statements and reactions out. If McCaskill wins, it will be because Missouri Republicans gave her the opponent she wanted.

  • Pingback: Newton Taulman

  • Pingback: Scottie Coursey

  • Pingback: Auto Forum

  • Pingback: SEO Services Australia

  • Pingback: liqueurs

  • Pingback: darmowa strona randki

  • Pingback: แทงบอล

  • Pingback: super randka

  • Pingback: rewelacyjny portla randkowy

  • Pingback: umow sie na randke

  • Pingback: steel strapping

  • Pingback: odszukaj milosc swego zycia

  • Pingback: distilling definition

  • Pingback: rubinetti prezzi

  • Pingback: Upgrade

  • Pingback: click this

  • Pingback: Browse Around This Website

  • Pingback: Check These Guys Out

  • Pingback: web design barrow

  • Pingback: skachat igru karos

  • Pingback: property in india

  • Pingback: property in india

  • Pingback: madam lux

  • Pingback: desain interior rumah

  • Pingback: working from home uk

  • Pingback: biaya bangun rumah

  • Pingback: Bret Sharperson

  • Pingback: Store Display Installations

  • Pingback: aloe vera side effects

  • Pingback: cv

  • Pingback: cv wzór

  • Pingback: sofy rozkładane

  • Pingback: distilled vinegar

  • Pingback: CA call center

  • Pingback: Scooters