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GOP primary rankings

By: chrysostom15 (Diary)  |  August 16th, 2011 at 01:07 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

1.  Gov Perry – He remains the most likely GOP nominee.  It increasingly looks that a Perry/McDonnell ticket is the most likely.  On paper he is the best candidate in the field, and on the trail he has outperformed my expectations so far.  That said, it is very early.  Things change.  Perry needs to win in South Carolina.  A win before that may be enough for him to clean house.

2.  Romney – This has been a horrible week for Romney.  Last time around he came in second in Iowa and second in NH.  He needs to win one of those states this year to have any chance.  He stands as a credible candidate, something that is questionable Bachmann or Paul. However, I cannot see how primary GOP voters would choose him over Perry.   I think his best chance is to develope a detailed economic plan, detailed budget, and campaign on that.  If he runs as the canddiate with specific, concrete solutions, he may have a shot to argue he is unique.  Otherwise, I can’t see him winning. 

3.  Bachmann – Sorry, but I just don’t see her getting the nomination.  I think the GOP establishment, and many GOP primary voters are looking primarily to beat Obama.  Bachmann is simply a much weaker candidate than Perry or Romney, and I don’t see any desire to nominate someone who will not appeal to moderate voters as well as others would.  Nor do I see her on anyone’s VP list.  She needs to be a governor or senator first.  That all said, I may be wrong.  She needs to win Iowa to stay in the race. 

4.  Ron Paul — Again, just like Bachmann I don’t see him as likely to win.  That said, he did surprise me with a great showing at the Ames straw poll.  However, I don’t see him getting the votes to win.  Nor do I see him on a VP list.  What I do see is that he has made a huge impact on the country, and can claim credit for much of the tea party movement.  I don’t see him dropping out ever.

5.  Rick Santorum – He beat all expectations and, unlike Bachman and Paul, actually has a record of getting things done in Congress.  That said, I don’t see a path to victory for him.  I see him supporting Perry after Iowa. 

6.  Everyone else – Has no business running.

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  • gawken

    By September, with Miitt fading even further, and Bachmann NOT getting much more support, Palin will either have to endorse Perry, and wrap it up for him, or run against him.

    Her problem..what would be her rational for running against him..what are the diffeences?

    • snowshooze

      nt

    • Toby Calvert-Lee

      they are too similar….Perry would just beat her because he has more organiztation…it’s like having Perry run against himself, only one candidate hasn’t been destroyed by the media, and has a solid organization, while the other one was defiled by the media, and has no organization…..who wins in that scenario?

  • Toby Calvert-Lee

    I disagree with here is that Santorum endorses Perry….he unfortunately has been very critical of my man Perry and I would see him as a stalking horse for Romney

    • audax

      Supported Snarlin’ Arlen over Toomey in 2004:

      http://www.redstate.com/audax/2011/06/10/today-toomey-whom-santorum-deemed-an-inferior-candidate-is-a-us-senator-and-santorum-isnt/

      or this:

      http://www.redstate.com/audax/2011/06/07/santorum-political-do-over-would-be-his-vote-for-the-medicare-prescription-drug-bill-rather-than-supporting-snarlin-arlen-in-2004-over-pat-toomey/

  • snowshooze

    To see Romney in 2nd.

  • Darin_H

    Stick a fork in Santorum, he’s done. Actually he was done in 2006 when he lost his senate seat in a landslide.

  • Darin_H

    shove 4 in there as well :)

  • chrysostom15

    I, personally, do not think that Palin will run unless Perry does poorly.

    Palin and Bachmann do not have a great relationship (as evidenced by her campaign manager, Ed Rollins, basically badmouthing Palin soon after being appointed Bachmann’s campaign manager).

    Palin has also been critical of Romney (for example, on how Romney handled the recent raising of the debt ceiling).

    However, Palin campaigned for Perry during his last election, and was friends with him prior to when she ran as VP. I really expect that if Perry does well, Palin will endorce him. I have a strong feeling that Perry and Palin talked before Perry entered the race. I would be surprised for her to run against him.

    I agree that Santorum and Paul are long shots. They remain under observation for removal from the list.

  • mikeymike143

    MEGYN KELLY: “If you were President and Iran attacked Israel with a nuclear bomb, would you go to their defense?” RON PAUL: “No, I would not and I would let Israel deal with it themselves without the U.S.”

    this moron just gave the muslims a green light to attack israel. fortunately he will never be president so we wont have to worry about it. on the bright side, every time paul opens his mouth, the hits on my anti ron paul webpage keep going up. i wont have to spend money on an ad for my page this month. : )

  • mikeymike143

    michele certainly can win. she benefits the most from pawlenty dropping out.

    oh, the dropoff after the first three candidates is trememdous.

  • chrysostom15

    I think Bachmann, besides Perry and Romney is the most likely to win the GOP nomination. I think she needs to win Iowa to have a shot. If she does win Iowa (which I think is likely), and Perry or Romney underperform she may move up in the rankings. That said, he is not a Governor, Senator or VP. That is where presidents come from. They don’t come from the House. For her to get the nomination would be a surprise.

    At this point in the campaign Poll numbers mean much less than job titles. Even a win in Ames means less than a job title. Job titles, records, fundraising are still very importaint.

    Romney is listed as the front runner, in large part, because he the sitting governor of Texas. Romney is largely listed second because of money. If Romney gets outraised by Bachmann next quarter, she may start looking more viable (and him less so).