1. Rick Perry
End of list.
The 2012 Nominaton contest is far from over. However, at this point — at shown from the last couple GOP debates — Rick Perry is not only the front runner, but the presumptive nominee. Gov. Perry’s debate performance, which again was solid, is not so much the key factor as the impression the last couple debates and news stories have given. Namely that all the other potential nominees are set on attacking Perry. Clearly, every other campaign views Perry as — not only the front runner — but is the candidate who will obtain the nomination unless something big changes.
Governor Romney made the wrong choice in attacking Perry during the last couple debates. Most notably on issues such as social security and jobs. Governor Romney in 2008 was not an acceptable choice for the GOP field. That is why he lost his frontrunner status and early lead. The 2012 GOP electorate is more concerned with Obamacare/Romney care, and is more conservative than the 2012 field. Romney’s attacks on Perry job creation is Texas will fall on deaf ears. Romney’s social security attacks hurt Romney more than Perry. Romney had/has limited time in the debates and he wasted and is wasting it attacking Perry. No matter how much Perry is attacked, that does not make Romney look a more acceptable candidate. Romney’s problem is Romney. He needed/needs to improve his image. He has and is failing to do that.
The other candidates all have far worse problems getting elected than does Romney. Romney was in the lead prior to Perry joining the race because none of the others were considered presidential level. Perry, without question, is. Romney — for this first time this year — faces a credible opponent. He cannot win by trying to attack him alone. Romney needed/needs to become a trustworthy, authentic, likeable option. He lost 4 years ago to McCain. There is no way Romney can make Perry look as bad as McCain for the typical voter. The typical GOP voter, given the choice of Romney or Perry — no matter what anyone says bad about Perry — is going to vote for Perry over Romney. Romney’s only hope was/is to make Romney sound better. He is falling off that path.
His advisors are likely to blame for this. This appear to think that the key to them winning is to knock down Perry; make him look worse. They hope to win by default. That plan — as I said before — will not work. The majority of GOP primary voters are tone deaf to these sorts of attacks. Perry is stronger on boarder security than McCain was, that is without question. Attacking him on that, or HPV, or social security, or any number of these things will be no more effective than the massive attacks against McCain. Infact, they will be much less effective. The more the attacks are launched, the more Perry supporters — and even those who do not support anyone — will become tone deaf to them.
Romney’s 1 chance was and may still be to start running a campaign for why Romney would be a good president. Unless and until voters change their mind and think that, Romney cannot win. Before Perry came in the race, most GOP primary voters thought Romney would be a less-bad president than the other options. That is not ‘good.’
Romney does have supporters, including a number in the establishment. That said, textbook politics is the politics that worked in the past. In Romney’s case, his textbook politics are what did not work in the past. In 1980, Carter attacked Reagan as too far out of mainstream. Carter lost because voters did not like Carter. In 1992 Bush attacked Clinton as not ready to lead. Yet, Clinton won because voters were not happy with Bush. In 2008, McCain attacked Obama as inexperienced, a socialist, etc. Obama still won. No matter how much Romney attacks Perry, it will not help Romney. The only effect will be to make people tune out what Romney says about Perry more and more.
At this point, it is too early to say anything; but based on what is going on now, Perry appears the likely nominee.
Jeff Emanuel
Neil Stevens
Caleb Howe
Daniel Horowitz
Lori Ziganto
Romney did himself no favors.
snowshooze (Diary) Tuesday, September 13th at 1:00PM EDT (link)And I agree,
Perry missed a huge opportunity to shine though.
He should have gutted the Romney attack by proposing an outline to save Sicial Security.
Michele was ranting. Guardisil something…
Perry defended, but only in a very polite and reserved way.
He should have countered that his opt-out was big enough to drive a truck through, and his order requiring it was a de-facto order to make insurance companies accept the cost for those that chose to go ahead with it.
Newt was Newt… always great fun, a wonderful debate contender, and a seasoned and commanding speaker. Too bad.
Huntsman is speeding toward the cliff.
Santorum is starting to sound a bit desperate. He had some points.
Paul, god bless him, he does have some points too.
I had higher hopes for Cain as well.
Anyhow, Romney can’t find anything to attack Perry on, why he decided to pick up the SS battle is far beyond me.
He has realized he has a serious problem, but so far, he has no idea whatever to do about it.
My advice to him… Shut up. Be nice. Smile a lot.
Then, either define yourself or just wait and hope for a real issue.
He finally spent some money… on that ad… and that was a waste.
Best line of the diary right here:
APA Guy (Diary) Thursday, September 15th at 8:19AM EDT (link)“Romney’s one chance was and may still be to start running a campaign for why Romney would be a good president.”
What a concept! How about convincing Republicans why YOU are the best candidate for president, Mitt? This nomination will not be won by default like last time…there is simply too much at stake. Mitt Romney will have to take this from Perry, and I’m unconvinced he has the ability or résumé to do so.
Romney isn't about to make the same
LiveStronger Tuesday, September 13th at 1:38PM EDT (link)mistake that Tim Pawlenty made during the first debate.
Tea Paw silently sat by and failed to attack Romney, the then frontrunner. Because of that, the media branded Tea Paw as “soft in the middle” and his campaign fizzled out.
Romney finally has a real challenger. Romney can’t be all smiles and giggles while Governor Gardasil eats his lunch.
Romney had to look tough and he did so.
Romney is to the right of Perry on many issues including immigration, individual rights, parental rights, etc.
Romney has more appeal to independents and Democrats than Perry does.
Romney can send Obama back to Chicago. Perry would win the Tea Party vote but lose the general election to Obama.
Romney Republican
mormonism
love4you Wednesday, September 14th at 6:31AM EDT (link)MORMONISM…….that says it all for me…don’t go from MUBARAK
and the princess ( ENABLER ) to a sect…..from Obama to a sect……..
have you NOT learned anything yet.
Troll alert
wennejunk (Diary) Wednesday, September 14th at 12:44PM EDT (link)No place for that kind of stuff here.
But of course you already know that.
Foolishly, you are hoping you can find someone to sign on to what you think Conservatives really are.
Moderators, please toss this guy.
There are only two kinds of people in the end: those who say to God, ‘Thy will be done,’ and those to whom God says, in the end, ‘Thy will be done.’ -C. S. Lewis
**TROLL**
Justin Spagnolo (Diary) Friday, September 16th at 3:03PM EDT (link)Please practice the art of trolling at that website…
Mods… I thought this guy was a troll on another comment, so far it appears most of the comments are for trolling purposes… please review.
“Knowledge will forever govern ignorance; and a people who mean to be their own governors must arm themselves with the power which knowledge gives. “ -James Madison
Kowalski...
Justin Spagnolo (Diary) Friday, September 16th at 3:04PM EDT (link)AHEM… err the fella above wennejunk… sorry fella, I wouldn’t hate on you…
“Knowledge will forever govern ignorance; and a people who mean to be their own governors must arm themselves with the power which knowledge gives. “ -James Madison
New PPP and Ras Poll Show Perry Slipping Against Obama
silentcal2012 (Diary) Tuesday, September 13th at 1:53PM EDT (link)PPP shows Perry lost five points in 3 weeks, and is now down by 11, where Romney is stable and down 5.
New Rasmussen poll confirms that Romney is head to head with Obama and remains stable, while Perry has fallen behind.
This data is based on opinions before the last two debates hae sunken in. Fervently toss red meat to the base and delude yourself all you want, but it will destroy you in a general.
Sure
Repair_Man_Jack (Diary) Tuesday, September 13th at 1:54PM EDT (link)Just ask John McCain.
Mr. Obama is pretending that an economic “recovery” is underway when he knows damn well that the banking system is just blowing smoke up the shredded *** of what’s left of that economy – James Howard Kunstler
Opposed To Who
silentcal2012 (Diary) Tuesday, September 13th at 1:58PM EDT (link)Liberal Republicans McCain and Huck colluded to destroy Romney. And Fred couldnt even win South Carolina his campaign was so bad. If McCain was so bad, you should have backed Romney.
McCain, like Dole, lost because of generational, competency issues. And Bill Clinton in 1996 was as nearly as unbeatable as Obama in 2008.
Half right
Change Jar Conservative (Diary) Tuesday, September 13th at 2:19PM EDT (link)Dole and McCain lost because of generational issues.
Clinton in 1996 was totally beatable. Dole just sucked.
********
Formerly know as “Oz” in these parts
General election head-to-head polling at this point
mbecker908 (Diary) Tuesday, September 13th at 2:09PM EDT (link)is mental masturbation.
The Republicans are running against one another, and unfortunately they are not going after Obama. [Rep] v. Obama is nonsense right now.
It is a solid rope for the very desperate, however.
Tell That To These Guys:
silentcal2012 (Diary) Tuesday, September 13th at 2:23PM EDT (link)Its relevant when you guy is ahead. Do a little research before you post.
9/12 front page:
http://www.redstate.com/california_yankee/2011/09/12/perry-now-perceived-as-most-electable/
9/1 diary:
http://www.redstate.com/realquiet/2011/09/01/rick-perry-not-electable-latest-rasmussen-poll-shows-perry-only-candidate-beating-obama/
Your reply was predictably lame.
Did I miss the debate between the Rep nominee and Obama.
gekster (Diary) Tuesday, September 13th at 2:28PM EDT (link)When did they hold that one.
They say Republicans are for the rich, Democrats are for the poor.
If they need more voters,
then they have to make more of who they are for.
We are there in the various Tea Party groups, leaderless, but not rudderless.
We steer always toward the Constitutional principles this nation was founded upon.
Erick Brockway
I’ve gone from
“Hope and Change” to
“Hopeless and Changeless”
Apples meet oranges.
mbecker908 (Diary) Tuesday, September 13th at 2:59PM EDT (link)Those polls put all of the Rep candidates against Obama and is a relative measure of the Republican candidates only. That’s all they’re good for. The only way these things should be used for anything other than toilet paper is if you have a series of them and can develop a track.
5 .. nt
Remington_Steele (Diary) Wednesday, September 14th at 10:05PM EDT (link).
Whether he's the front runner or not
wennejunk (Diary) Wednesday, September 14th at 12:48PM EDT (link)I’m very disappointed in the other debate participants.
Vet Perry? Sure, needs to be done across the board for all of them. However, that’s not happening.
Right now I have a bad taste in my mouth about the current crop. All the bandwidth spent beating each other up, not in arguing policy and philosophy but rather closer to slime throwing.
Why are they attacking each other and not comparing and contrasting their policies and positions against the problem in the White House?
This saddens and disgusts me.
There are only two kinds of people in the end: those who say to God, ‘Thy will be done,’ and those to whom God says, in the end, ‘Thy will be done.’ -C. S. Lewis
Agree at this point
WA_Cowboy (Diary) Wednesday, September 14th at 3:12PM EDT (link)That Perry is really the only candidate.
Romney is Mr. Flip-flop. His comments on Hannity about Social Security and “You can’t say those things and win a general election” smack of dishonesty and bait and switch. Makes me think that he’s nothing more than another professional politician who will say whatever it takes to get elected and then do whatever he wants. That’s just how I see him.
Ron Paul, while libertarian on many issues is downright wrong on anything and everything foreign policy. matter of fact, on those issues, he aligns himself more with the left than the right.
I personally like Herman Cain. Not afraid to have different ideas, but really would like it if he held some kind of elected office first. Seems to lack foreign policy knowledge.
Huntsman is Huntsman.
Newt is great on the debate stage. If only he didn’t have the baggage from his troubled personal life, or the attacks against Paul Ryan. As far as a policy guy goes, Newt is great. But I can’t see him winning a general election due to the baggage.
Michele dug herself into a deep hole in my mind. I was really upset with her after the debates for the way she tried to make herself look better by tearing everyone down.
Santorm is a nice guy, good social conservative. but if he lost his most recent election in his home state, how can he win a national election when his home state voted him out?
That leaves Perry. He has his warts like they all do. But he is a proven executive. He’ll admit his mistakes. He’ll stand his ground when he’s right about something. He won’t back down from a challenge. he is a social conservative. He means what he says and says what he means. I can’t see voting for anyone else if my state had a real primary.
If the others want to gain on him, they need to spend less time attacking him and more time showing how they’re different. Every time they attack him, the attention goes back to Perry. That’s why he had more face time in the debate than anyone else.
I was disappointed in the debate because it became the pile on Rick Perry show. Piling on someone does nothing to help your cause if you’re trailing. Candidtates need to show how they differ from one another without slinging mud at one another. All that does is give the left more ammo in the general election.
“If you put the Federal Government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in five years there’d be a shortage of sand.” – Milton Friedman
How is Perry not a flip-flopper?
LiveStronger Thursday, September 15th at 10:33PM EDT (link)Perry supported Al Gore for President in 1988.
Perry has flip-flopped on immigration. (“Texas Dream Act”)
Perry voted to raise taxes in 1986 while serving as a Democrat in the Texas legislature.
Perry issued an executive order on Gardasil vaccinations, then flip-flopped by allowing the legislature to override his executive order.
Perry must be made of teflon because every fact that exposes him as a flip-flopper just slips right off of him.
Romney Republican
And your signature line says it all, I guess [nt]
lineholder (Diary) Thursday, September 15th at 10:34PM EDT (link)*.*
To address your 4 issues, livestronger.
gekster (Diary) Thursday, September 15th at 11:54PM EDT (link)1. In 1988, Perry was a Democrat, and A G was a ‘conservative’ Democrat, not the nutjob he is now.
2. The Texas Dream act was passed by theTexas Legislature with out any ‘no’ votes. (Getting yelled at for doing what the Legislature wanted).
He has not flipped on anything immigration, and has even called for the Feds to enforce the laws on the books.
3, In 1986, he was loyal to the party in which he was in. He has since wised up and switched parties, something no one faults Reagan for.
4. Perry did not flip on the gardasil issue. He did the EO while the State Legislature was not in session, and let it die when his EO was over ridden.
(Getting yelled at for doing what the Legislature didn’t want).
Anything else?
They say Republicans are for the rich, Democrats are for the poor.
If they need more voters,
then they have to make more of who they are for.
We are there in the various Tea Party groups, leaderless, but not rudderless.
We steer always toward the Constitutional principles this nation was founded upon.
Erick Brockway
I’ve gone from
“Hope and Change” to
“Hopeless and Changeless”
gekster, one quibble.
Melody Warbington (rwm52) (Diary) Friday, September 16th at 12:13AM EDT (link)Algore was never a conservative, Democrat, so-called or otherwise. He only pretended because he was and is an opportunistic liar. I do agree he is a nuttier, opportunistic liar these days.
The woman saith unto him, I know that Messiah cometh (he that is called Christ): when he is come, he will declare unto us all things. (John 4:25)
quibble acknowledged.
gekster (Diary) Friday, September 16th at 12:25AM EDT (link)I have heard it said more than once that he was a conservative Dem.
They say Republicans are for the rich, Democrats are for the poor.
If they need more voters,
then they have to make more of who they are for.
We are there in the various Tea Party groups, leaderless, but not rudderless.
We steer always toward the Constitutional principles this nation was founded upon.
Erick Brockway
I’ve gone from
“Hope and Change” to
“Hopeless and Changeless”
I don't know about Perry
MOlsen6 (Diary) Wednesday, September 14th at 9:58PM EDT (link)While I think Perry is clean, I must confess that I do worry about the “Bimbo Factor” with him. I don’t worry about that with Romney, Bachmann or some of the others. This is the guy who thought that taxing strip clubs would suffice for funding local school districts. At this point, I don’t care about the schools, it’s the other part of the thought that makes me worry. The guy is a disciplined candidate, and is both a good broadcast and retail politician, but it only take one authentic bimbo to bring a guy like Perry down.
I strongly believe we need a former governor, who has experience leading a state government, and who has consumed his own cooking, meaning he got re-elected based upon his own track record. Perry makes the grade, even though it was a 3-way brawl. I don’t know, I can go for Perry, but I’m not sure I’d close off all the other options yet … strikes me as a bit too early to do that.
I kinda like some of Bachmann’s spirit, Romney is not perfect but acceptable, Huntsman has a good economic plan, but clearly all three have some issues. Bachmann does have appeal, but I’m not convinced she is a disciplined enough candidate for a big-time national campaign … and she also hasn’t been a governor. I dunno. That is two strikes, but I still kinda like her.
MOlsen6
Perry takes the lead in latest Florida primary poll
californiagold Thursday, September 15th at 1:41AM EDT (link)Perry 29%
Romney 20%
The significance of this poll is that it was taken after Monday night’s debate. Looks like Perry is holding on in spite of all the negative attacks against him.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/09/15/poll_perry_leads_gop_field_in_florida_111335.html
No wonder Romney and Bachmann
onemovoter (Diary) Thursday, September 15th at 2:24AM EDT (link)are trying like crazy to do something to stop Perry. Saw the last poll that was done a few days after Perry announced and Romney was up by 4 over Perry. Now Perry is up by about the same amount nationwide.
I do think the polls will probably settle a little closer as the days wear on but Bachmann will probably dive 3 or 4 points, which right now is about half her current support.
Dick Morris seems to think the opposite, that Bachmann will come back up in the polls after the last debate. He needs to read a few more conservative blog sites like RS.
“Any fool can criticize, condemn, and complain, and most fools do.”- Benjamin Franklin
“I don’t make jokes. I just watch the government and report the facts.”- Will Rogers
Perry needs to settle these issues...
iidvbii Thursday, September 15th at 4:30AM EDT (link)The good govenor has shown that he can take some punches, admit he has made mistakes and stand his ground when he feels he is justified. It is now time to settle these outstanding items.
1. Produce a plan to solve the problems with social security. While I am fine with killing the program in a generation, most americans seem to like it. He needs to deliver a simply explained step by step to save or replace. This will not only end the punching bag routine of calling it a ponzi scheme (which it is) but also give the voters certainity regarding his plans.
2. Settle gaurdisil, the “mandatory” made it affordable, the opt out was a simple print and sign form online. Not quite the same as obomeny care. This would serve the dual purpose of putting the “Tarder” out of the race and allowing us all to move on to more relevent topics.
3. Produce a printable, defendable and explainable first hundered days plan. Let the folks know in writing what a President Perry will focus on out of the gate and get this conversation back on track.
I believe these simple steps will bring the focus back to a Perry versus Obama conversation. This should be the goal, after all. We all agree Obama must be a one termer and like it or not Perry is the best chance to unify our splintered party and take the fight to the true enemy.
In the final analysis will our children praise or curse our actions this day?
I think Perry should save the "Contract With Social Security" for the general
usdebateboard Thursday, September 15th at 11:16PM EDT (link)As we saw with Paul Ryan’s plan, there are already too many in the GOP who head for the tall grass when it comes to hard and fast policy proposals for Medicare or Social Security.
Why enable some hack moderator at a debate to ask, “Governor Romney, why do you think Governor Perry’s plan to reform SS is radical and unworkable.” Romney doesn’t have a plan. Democrats have not had a plan for four years. Why throw them red meat?
Of course you make a good point
iidvbii Thursday, September 15th at 11:37PM EDT (link)Definately dont want to get “Ryan-ed”. Do you think it is better to leave the issue to the imagination of senior voters though? Regardless of what he does we will be demagogued to death. Might be a stronger play to map out your own position, at least then you can influence the parameters of the engagment. Could be useful to control the variables a little.
In the final analysis will our children praise or curse our actions this day?
I think the Republican establishment is afraid of its own shadow on Social Security
usdebateboard Thursday, September 15th at 11:47PM EDT (link)I’ve said this before;
1) No senior thinks Republicans are going to yank their benefits away.
b) Nobody under 50 believes the lie that they can access the same system of benefits their parents and grandparents did.
I think this can carry them quite far, yes.
Obama’s not going to show a plan for Social Security. He’s just going to demagogue the income cap on contributions. Why get sucked into that?
Aggreed...
iidvbii Thursday, September 15th at 11:50PM EDT (link)Kinda foolish to give him something to talk about other than JOBS,GDP and DEBT in the general.
I concede the point sir, your strategy is better.
In the final analysis will our children praise or curse our actions this day?
This article seems to agree with my
iidvbii Friday, September 16th at 10:57PM EDT (link)Previos point that you need to produce a solution if you are going to critisize the program?
http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/gallup-poll-perry-social/2011/09/16/id/411278
In the final analysis will our children praise or curse our actions this day?
Amazing that coming out of these debates, we're talking non-economic issues - like vaccinations, instead of jobs & debt.
nvrepub (Diary) Thursday, September 15th at 11:10PM EDT (link)Playing right into the media’s hands.
What would we discuss?
iidvbii Thursday, September 15th at 11:41PM EDT (link)These folks are all going to dust of the Regan playbook.
Freeze tax rates
Remove regulations
Tort reform
You know provide certainity to the business community…..
Would be kinda dull debating capital gains percentages vs. expenditure depreciation rates…
In the final analysis will our children praise or curse our actions this day?