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What it will take to win in 2012 – How the Math makes the Presidential Election a Tough Race for the GOP to win

By: chrysostom15 (Diary)  |  December 7th, 2011 at 12:14 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

In 2008, Obama raised $745 million dollars, and will likely have over $1 billion to campaign with.  This money means he will have the money to run an effective campaign whereever he wants.  Additionally, Democrats believe that the Obama campaign will help turnout African-American voters.  So, they will campaign for Obama even in some states where they have no chance to win, to help win congressional and/or senate races there; as well as to help with local elections. 

Based on 2008, 2010, and other data, some states are very likely to go GOP no matter what, and are effectively off the board for Obama to win.  They are: Wyoming, Oklahoma, Utah, Idaho, Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Nebraska (except for 1 electorial vote), Kansas, Mississippi, West Virginia, Texas, South Carolina, North Dekota, South Dakota, and Georgia.  That is 155 Electorial Votes. 

Based on the same data, the Obama is very likely to win: New Jersey, Oregon, Washington, Maine, Conecticut, California, Delaware, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Islan, Vermont, Hawaii, and DC.  That is 186 electorial votes.

Some other states are strongly leaning towards Obama:

  • Obama won Michigan by over 16% in 2008, and is likely to win it again
  • Obama won New Mexico by over 15%, and will likely win again
  • Obama won Wisconsin by almost 14%, and based on the 2010 elections, looks well poised to win there again (2010 elections were close, and subsequent recalls suggest GOP momentum exists, but is not sufficient to cause a 14% shift.
  • Obama won Nevada by 12.5%, and 2010 results where the less-popular Reid won in Nevada in 2010 suggests a likely Obama win there as well.

Although those are not a sure thing, they are very likely and bring Obama’s base electorial votes to: 223.

Obama won the election by about 7.3%, those 223 electorial votes all would remain Obama wins even if his total share of the vote was reduced in each state by 12.3%.  If the GOP wins any of those states, it will likely be the case that the GOP wins in a landslide (at which case, state by states will not matter).

The remaining states up-for-graps can be grouped as leaning GOP, leaning Obama, and battle ground.

 

Those leaning for the GOP are:

  • Arizona (won by McCain by over 8%)
  • Montana (won by McCain by over 2%)
  • Missouri (won by McCain by 0.13%)
  • North Carolina (won by Obama by 0.33%)
  • Indiana (won by Obama by over 1%)
  • 2nd district of Nebraska (won by Obama by over 1%)
  • Florida (won by Obama by just under 3%)

Those states bring the GOP total to 235.  All these states will be compeditive states where Obama will run a strong campaign.  A strong GOP contender will have to fight to win each of those states.  That said, it is hard to see the GOP losing any of these states and winning the election.  These are all states where based on 2000, 2004, and 2010 data, the GOP has the natural advantage.  The challenge is that Obama will likely spend significant money on these states.

Obama leaning states are:

  • Pennsylvania (Obama won by over 10%, Kerry and Gore won)
  • Minnesota (Obama won by over 10%, typically blue state)
  • New Hampshire (Obama won by almost 10%, Kerry won). 

These three states will, of course, be states the GOP needs to fight for, and may pick off in a surprise win.  These will be states where Obama will visit, spend money, and fight to sure-up.  They bring the likely Obama vote to 257.

The 4 key Battle Groud States are easily divided into the two the the GOP has the best chance to win and the two  that Obama has the best chance to win.

GOP leaning Battle Ground States

1. Ohio – Obama won Ohio with about 4.5% of the vote.  Ohio went for Bush in 2004 and 2008, and generally leans slightly towards the GOP.  To win Ohio, the GOP needs to be able to win moderate voters, union voters, and blue-collar workers.  Anti-unionism may appeal to the base, but the base is already motivated to support against Obama.  The GOP needs to win the votes of small-government, pro-life, pro-family union workers.  Anti-union stands –especially given that union laws are primarily state laws — are not good politics.

2.  Virginia.  Obama won Virginia by 6.3%.  He won based on a huge surge in African-American Voting, and based on winning government workers inside the beltway.  In 2010, the GOP swept state government elections where there was less African-American turnout, and where Northern Virginia government workers voted for the GOP.  Typically speaking, African-American turnout is lower than was in 2008, and lower than is expected in 2012.  Obama will get a significant boost from African-Americans.  Typically speaking, federal government workers in DC live in Maryland if they are more liberal, and Virginia if they are more conservative/moderate.  In most all elections, these government workers in VA vote GOP (as they are typically civilian defense workers and other security workers).  They voted GOP when Gilmore, Allen, Bush, Bush, Reagan, Ford, etc. ran. 

The math is such that, for any Republican to win a federal-state-wide race in Virginia, he needs to win the following groups (1) social and religious conservatives who are in the rural parts of Virginia, (2) fiscal conservatives who live in the suburbs and are often social moderates, (3) the civilian military federal government workforce which exists in large numbers in Northern Virginia and Norfolk (which includes DOD and other security-related federal agencies), and (4) the libertarian anti-tax, anti-government sliver of Virginia that will likely vote Ron Paul in the primary. 

Democratic wins typically are based on winning inner-city Richmond, Inner-city Norfolk, and winning in large number of minorities in Northern Virginia; while at-the-same time, winning over federal workers in Northern Virginia.

Minorities are not swing voters, but their turnout matters.  It will be high.  The reminaing swing voters are moderates (the soccer moms), and government workers (the typical being a defense/security federal civil servant who supports small government, defense, low taxes, but who does not like pay freezes and does not like being called bad names.

If the GOP wins Ohio and Virginia, the electorial total reaches 266, 4 votes shy of what is needed.

Obama Leaning Battle Ground States

1. Colorado – Obama won with by about 9% in 2008.  About 21% of Colorado is Hispanic.  The Hispanic vote is critical to the GOP winning Colorado, and Colorado is the easist pick-up for the GOP to win of Obama-leaning states.  The Colorado house is controlled by the GOP, their senate by the Dems.  They have a dem as governor.  Colorado supported Bush in 2000, and 2004, and Dole in 1996.  25% of folks in Colorado have no religion, as compared to a 17% national average.  Only 4% of Colorado is black.  Polls show Obama now polling 40 – 50% there.  What does all this mean?  It means Colorado will be up for graps, and Obama’s campaign plan will likely be to attack the GOP candidate as being anti-Hispanic and part of the religious right.

2.  Iowa – Obama won Iowa by 9.5% of the vote.  Although Iowa leans blue, Bush won in 2004.  Iowa is genearlly reflective of the mood of the country and is a swing state.  If the GOP can win the general election by 3 points, they will like Iowa.  If not, Obama likely will. 

 

Although a lot of things matter in the election, the actual electorial math suggest that only a few states will likely determine the winner.  If the GOP  candidate can win Ohio, Virginia, and Colarado, he will likely win the election.  The key to Ohio is increasing and gaining appeal to working class union workers.  The key to Virginia is to appeal to conservative-leaning government workers,.  The key to Colarado is to appeal to Hispanics.  In all cases, the GOP need to keep its base supporters — which is mind-numbingly easily.  As long as Obama is the nominee, any GOP candidate will win the GOP base, and the base will turn out.  The GOP also needs to continue to reach out to social and fiscal moderates.  Critically importaint, the GOP needs to reach out to Ron Paul supporters, as (assuming Paul does not win), these voters will be critical undecideds.  The GOP must not become the party of war, and needs to appeal to Paul supports. 

Simply put: to win the election, the GOP nominee needs to use a broad tent approach, and make sure to gain the support of more than just the party base.  We need a nominee who will court, appeal to, and be supportive of groups who backed Bush, Dole, Bush, and Reagan, but who do not agree with the GOP base on every issue.  Simply put, the only way to win is with a coalition of supporters that runs on a platform that is not: (1) unions are bad, (2) government workers are bad, (3) hispanics are bad; but rather one that promotes small government, conservatives values, and that attempts to improve the lives of people in unions and out of unions.  People in the public and the private sector.  People of every race and ethnicity, and that runs on a broad tent as Bush and Reagan did.

COMMENTS

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  • Tim Griffin@griffinelection

    I appreciate someone willing to do their homework before they write. Great job!

  • theobnoxiousamerican

    As horribly terrible of a president Obama has been, we’d be foolish to think that this will be an easy election. It won’t be – as your detailed article notes.

    It’s not just a question of electorial votes. Obama has a number of huge and less tangible benefits:

    – He’s the incumbent. We’ve been blessed with the intellect to see things clearly, but most Americans don’t pay attention to politics (3% of Americans watch the sunday talk shows). And they will reflexively vote for the incumbent

    - America in three short years has gotten to be less like America. 1 in 7 (or the like) are on food stamps. People are used to being frisked just for flying a plane. Americans don’t expect the same things as they used to, and in many ways have been conditioned to lean Democrat.

    - The liberal press is downright cuddly with Obama. Those Americans who don’t pay attention to politics get their news in soundbytes on Good Morning America (Stephenopolis) and NBC Today (Ann Curry).

    - Add in all of those people who lean left, but would vote GOP in the right situation – blue dog democrats for example. These people are buying the media line that this is a weak GOP field, that the GOP has moved to the right, that climate change is real, that there really is a right to collectively bargain, etc. These themes are echoed far and wide in all manner of news and media content, from local articles on gardening, to television shows.

    - Add up all of the consumers of Fox News, Limbaugh, Mark Levin, Redstate, etc (and bear in mind there is lots of cross over between the audience), we’re actually a pretty small minority of Americans. 10, 15 million tops? While each of the above’s ratings tower over the likes of Rachael Madcow or the Ed Show, it simply cannot compete with the widespread liberal message being played far and wide mentioned in the prior point.

    I wonder what the framers would have thought if they saw the media environment of today, where collusion to promote a single agenda is the business of the day. I truly believe that there is no worse threat to the republic than the one represented by the so-called (liberal) fourth estate and have no doubt that had they gotten a whiff of the stink created by the media today, there would have been several additions to our founding documents.

    In either case, unless every right leaning, and most moderates, in all states, vote GOP in 2012, we will lose. And we will lose big time if there is a 3rd party candidate or if Hillary somehow involves herself.

    • YnotNOW

      In all of the electoral math, particularly the appeal to “moderates,” comes the temptation to water down appeals to principles. Remember that any compromise to appeal to the squishy middle will NEVER gain the support of the liberal-leaning mainstream media outlets. So it doesn’t do much to get the un-informed on our side.

      But clearly stated principles – ones that can cut through the media clutter. I hate to say “sound bites” but you know the value of slogans that highlight the principles underlying your goals. These can appeal to the voters who have surpressed their values in apathy, who then wake up and realize that there really is a better way than Obama-sytle statism.

    • conservativeparrothead

      Here are some thoughts:
      1. I think you make the case to union workers that democrats create an evvironment bad for all business with regulation and they care more about environmental groups than labor.

      2. Vp pick from swing state maybe one that would appeal to Latino voters: rubio

      3. I think you have to have an articulate plan, one thing I could see newt running a 2012 contract saying if you vote republican we are going to do this this and this. Coordinate effort with congressional candidates.

  • trevorb

    it’s going to come down to two states: Florida and Ohio. If we can win both of them, Obama is done. We might win Colorado, since they went for the Republicans in 1996, 2000, and 2004. I also don’t think he’ll get Virginia, since it’s the same for them.

    Nevada’s not in Obama’s pocket, since they have the highest unemployment rate in the country. They went republican in 2000 and 2004, so it’s not a lost cause.

    One advantage we do have is that the electoral college has swung in our voter, but be warned: Obama can still win. If he does win, our country is in enormous trouble. One thing I hope hurts him is when everything in Fast and Furious comes to light.

  • deVere

    No Republican has ever been elected POTUS without Ohio, and it will not happen in 2012.

    Nominating a Mormon should favor the GOP winning Nevada. A plus for Huntsman or Romney.

    Obama must carry Pennsylvania and Michigan, or he will not be reelected.

    If Obama does carry PA & MI, the election will be decided in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire . The GOP will need 15 out of those 45 electoral votes to win the election.

    To lose this election should require a rebound in the economy and/or a disastrous Republican nominee.

  • http://redmerrimack.blogspot.com/ charliebravoNH

    That is funny, because Obama has been below 50% approval in NH since the end of 09 or beginning of 2010 depending which poll you look at. There is no large African American vote Obama can tap in NH unlike MI and PA. There will be a contested Governors race here as well in 2012 and the GOP has some strong candidates.

    Every vote Obama gets here will have to be earned. The question is will he spend money here in the General to get NH’s 4 electoral votes? It wouldn’t surprise me if NH got written off in the General so the Obama campaign can try to turn out more African Americans and Hispanics some where else.

  • professor123

    You are correct. This is not going to be an easy election. Obama has promised a lot of things to a lot of people and they are all looking to get their’s. It is, unfortunately, a reflection of a corrupt system, a system that has been enhanced and refocused by a political ethic from the streets of Chicago. Big city politcs on the national scale and we have a media that does not recognize it, does not report on it, and, in fact, has become a cheerleader for it.

    We need be aware of how hard this is going to be and not be too confident. We do not need to go through another 1948.

    • YnotNOW

      In that Obama still has an enthusiastic base and huge funding advantages. Which could very easily balance the terrible economy (especially if the unemployment rate approaches 8%). Which puts many states up for play.

      Residing in the swing state of Colorado, I’m expecting to be overwhelmed by robo-calls and TV ads. So much that my volunteering for calls/etc. wll not be welcomed because it is “yet another” trying to get my attention.

  • ghostship

    What the GOP needs to win is an actual reason to vote for them. Running on the platform of at least we don’t suck as bad as the Democrats is not going to get people enthused to go out to the polls and vote GOP.

    If people only have the choice of Dem-lite and regular Dem they’ll pick regular Dem nine times out of ten. You can only ask the base to hold their noses and vote for the GOP candidate so many times until even the most die hard Republican reckons why they should even bother.

  • dfaith

    The population exodus in Michigan likely means that the historical data isn’t as good of a predictor as it is for other states. And if Romney is the nominee, then winning there will be very doable. I like our chances there better than Wisconsin or Minnesota.

    • conservativecurmudgeon

      Michigan has a complete sweep of the legislature, and the executive departments…

  • conservativecurmudgeon

    We’re fighting the last war, with old maps.

    Obama has a record now. He is despised. His approval numbers are cratering. He is aloof, condescending, a vicious scold. He will be destroyed at the ballot box, especially as more of his policy disasters come to full fruition.

    Americans are a trusting people, but this stops when this trust is betrayed.

    In 1976, Jimmy Carter won: Texas, Louisiana, Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, South Carolina, North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New York, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island.

    When this happened, all the political professionals thought that the US would have nothing but southern Governors for the rest of time, so thoroughly had Carter “run” the south. But, four years later, in 1980, Carter didn’t win a single southern state. He was a disaster, and Obama is worse. Of these states he won in 1976, Carter managed only to carry one in 1980: Minnesota.

    As of right now, today, Obama might carry the following states: Rhode Island, Hawaii, California, Oregon, Washington, Maryland, Illinois, New York, Vermont, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, and Delaware.

    Maybe. And, if he does, he will receive 185 electoral votes. He absolutely will not climb above this barrier. He is toast.

    Also, there is another, less-spoken of historical fact: Only FOUR elected democrats have received a 50.01% (at least) majority of the vote since the Civil War (Six, if you count Tilden, who lost the Electoral Vote to Buchanan, and Al Gore to Bush in 2000): Roosevelt, Johnson, and Carter and Obama. The others only won by plurality. Obama has this huge historical tsunami facing him, as well.

    The only way a Democrat typically can win a modern election is when votes are siphoned off by a third party: Strom Thurmond in 1948 that gave us Truman, TR in 1912 that gave us Wilson, Perot in 1992 that gave us Clinton, etc. (the opposite works, too: Ralph Nader in Florida 2000 gave us Bush 43)

    Pray as fervently as you’ve ever prayed that there are no personality cults that bloom and go third party: It’s the ONLY hope Obama has.

    • barleycorn

      Carter, bless his pea pickin’ heart, actually managed to win six states in 1980: Rhode Island, Georgia, Maryland, West Virginia, Minnesota, and Hawaii (and of course D.C.)

      It was Mondale in 1984 that only won Minnesota.

      • conservativecurmudgeon

        I let my disgronifier loose. I was more or less referring to Carter losing the south, which he had completely captured in 1976.

        Poor wording, muddled thought. You see what happens when I don’t get my beauty sleep?

  • barleycorn

    With few exceptions elections take place with a fairly predictable domino effect.

    For instance if Pennsylvania is close then Virginia, North Carolina, and Ohio will easily go to the GOP. There simply is no credible scenario where Obama wins Ohio and loses Pennsylvania.

    Likewise if Obama wins Virginia then I see no credible path for a GOP victory.

  • greyeagle

    I don’t think Obama will do well in Florida this time. He closed down NASA, which caused the loss of thousands of jobs. His policies have cost lots of jobs here. The GOP is in charge of the Governor, and most of the state legislature. So the GOP will likely carry Florida.

    • YnotNOW

      Because there are not enough pick-up opportunities to balance their EC vote. I don’t even consider it a swing state, because if Obama wins Florida, it’s all over.

      Florida is a must-win (just like Ohio).

      • wbf

        I heard on the local station this week that at present the race will be very close in Florida. Obama is polling closely with either Romney or Gingrich. Many people here are transplants from the Northeast.There are not so many of them in the Panhandle as in central and south Florida.

        • carolynr

          I used to live there and know the demographics very well. South Florida has been overrun by the NE United States, i.e., Broward, Palm Beach, Martin and St. Lucie counties. I leave out Dade because there is a very heavy Cuban populace there…which has always voted Republican. There is only one way to take those counties that are very populated…and most residents are retired…Talk about SS. This is ALL these people think and talk about…believe me…I know. There is also a heavy contingency of the Jewish vote in Broward and Palm Beach counties.

          Who is pro-Israel…who has a plan TO SAVE SS….Perry. What will happen if Obamacare goes forward (Newt/Romney) if SCOTUS does not get it gone…Perry. Obama has already taken a half trillion out of Medicare…and when you see the unfolding of Obamacare…more will be taken away and seniors will find themselves on Medicaid. No doctors want to even get near that program if run through the Federal government.

          Unfortunately…there is nothing but liberal stations and liberal newspapers in SE Florida. I sometimes wonder if the person that owns the Palm Beach Post came from Russia.

          Should the public put policy ahead of the WWF smackdown debate of X vs. Obama….and if syndicated shows…like Rush and Hannity (lots of luck there) put forth Perry’s plan to “save” them…Florida will go red. Naples will stay Republican….blue bloods…money. Tampa will go blue…but not suburbs. Central Florida is becoming an issue because there is a heavy Middle Eastern influence there…however, I still say Orlando goes Red. The Panhandle and northern Florida will stay red…except Jacksonville…for obvious reasons.

          Oh…expect to see SEIU there…because many people in South Florida are retired union workers. I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if Obama threatens through a SEIU/Union minion that their pensions will be gone if they don’t vote Democratic. So…there is my two cents..plus some.

          • YnotNOW

            As it will certainly be within a couple percentage points, and the campaigns will focus there intensely. I am only saying that if Obama wins Florida, it will show enough momentum that there are almost no scenarios where the R’s pick up enough electoral votes to make up the difference.

  • valrobex

    the last census and the redistricting that has come out of the Republican tsunami in 2010.

    The Dems know they’re in deep trouble. That’s one reason the Bamster has been campaigning non-stop since the summer and his poll numbers are still in the tank.

    The head-to-head polls are actually rather impressive. The Republican candidates have been campaigning for the nomination – not the election. The Bamster has been campaigning for the Presidency and he’s not doing well one year out. With all of his effort, he should be doing much better.

    When the Republican nominee starts campaigning against Obama directly, watch how his poll numbers tank.

    • YnotNOW

      When Obama has the funding advantage and the media on his side, it will be an up-hill climb, even with the terrible record that they cannot cover up.

      • valrobex

        MSM in his pocket, yes. But that is the old formula.

        We, the voting public, can now educate our selves very quickly and very easily without spin. That?s why the MSM is going bankrupt. The only thing keeping the TV news on the air is income from other programs. Fox news has more viewers than all the other networks combined. The Liberal print media is going down for the count.

        Far fewer people are obtaining their ?news? from the MSM even as our population grows. Despite the government?s attempt to control things it can?t control the information free market. And every time it?s tried to control the internet they?ve gotten their hand smacked. The Liberals? ?Free Speech? demagoguery is now biting them in the butt.

        But people are angry and, as davenj posted below, people are suspicious of Obama. They are not going to buy his crap ? once burned, twice shy.

        Davenj also said Republicans will have to play both offense and defense while the Bamster only has to play defense. Couldn?t disagree more. He can?t play defense, he?s got nothing but manure for his record. How does he defend manure? He can only play offense. Listen to his current rhetoric.

        My personal thoughts are, all the Republican candidate has to do is mostly play offense. As Dick Morris maintains, all the crap flying during this nominating process will inoculate the primary candidate for the election.

        As a side note, I believe the Bamster wants to run against Romney because it takes Obamacare off the table. Romney can?t attack Obama on Obamacare because he instituted it in Mass. And that puts Romney on the defense. This is the one exception to what Morris maintains. This isn?t behavior or rhetoric, Romneycare is policy and no candidate can walk away from policy.

        Any other candidate, even Newt, can take it to Obama re: Obamacare and the discussion stays on topic. I also believe that?s the reason the Dems ?feign? wanting to run against the Newmeister. It?s an effort to scare the Republican base into nominating the one candidate they believe they can defeat. I think they?re scared $h!+less to run against anyone else.

        It?s curious how all the Dem pundits keep saying, along with the Rep pundits, that Romney is the most ?electable.? IMHO ?electability? is a straw man. The same was said about Reagan.

        • valrobex

          I do agree it won’t be easy.

          But I’m optimistic that what happened in 2010 will continue in 2012 and beyond. Keep the faith.

          • YnotNOW

            Fox News beats all the competition – on CABLE news channels. Still behind the broadcast nightly newscasts – NBC, CBS, ABC. And even further behind if you add them together.

            Yes, the MSM have declining influence, but they are still the largest factor in the minds of the people who don’t really care to take the time to research on the internet. Which is the majority of voters (and even more influence on the “great unwashed” who don’t even care enough to vote).

      • barleycorn

        If one pill is enough to cure you then taking two won’t benefit you any. In a political campaign its vital to have enough money, but it is almost useless to have more than enough.

        As long as the GOP candidate has enough, its irrelevant how much more Obama has.

        • YnotNOW

          Obama has the cash to fund paid staff offices in every state. R’s will have to rely on volunteers who care enough to cram activism into their busy schedules that include actual productive work. Volunteer hours are more valuable than paid staff, but if you overwhelm the “quality” with “quantity” of paid staff hours, this cash can be very well spent.

  • davenj1

    I, too, have written on this subject. Basically in agreement with a few small exceptions. The GOP has to play too much offense as well as defense while Obama needs only play defense- and not even 100%. I believe Ohio will play a lesser role this time around- forget that hype about “as Ohio goes.” As someone mentioned, that is playing with old maps. Second, Sabato did an excellent article on unemployment and elections. For example, the unemployment rate in California is higher than the national average, but does anyone think that state will turn red in 2012? Likewise, relying on the high rate in Nevada is foolish, although I think Nevada will vote for the GOP. Not so Colorado or even Michigan. In Florida, Obama’s numbers are sinking and the state is taking on added weight.
    The bottom line is that people are suspicious of Obama and have seen that his 2008 election was nothing but smoke and mirrors. Although the electoral math is difficult, Obama is vulnerable. It will be interesting.

  • virginiahiker

    I live in Virginia and spent the last 3 weeks of the 2004 race in Ohio. Neather will be easy wins in 2012.

    Bush won Ohio in 2000 because Donna Brazille miss read the polling and pulled out of a fight she could have won. He won Ohio in 2004 by the skin of his teeth riding the coattails of George Voinovich in the suburban areas and with massive turnout among evangelicals in the southeast counties. Our 2012 candidate will need to provide coattails, not ride them and evangelicals have always been very mercurial. They may rarely vote Democrat anymore, but often stay home if the Republican candidate has not made sufficient effort to kiss their ring hard and often. Our problem in Ohio in 2012 is that any candidate who can attract center right votes in the Cleavland, Columbus and Cincinnati suburbs will have a difficult time turning out the vote in the southeast counties. We need both groups to win Ohio. One or the other alone is not enough to counterbalance the black vote in the cities and the union vote in Cuyahoga county and Toledo.

    Virginia is much more winnable but still not easy. George Allen is a good man who deserves better treatment than he has received from many on the far right; but his presence on the ticket will galvanize the Northern Virginia liberal glitterati and no longer excites our own base. While most government workers in Nova and Tidewater tend to be defense/security conservatives, they are getting more than a little sick and tired of conservatives blaming them for everything that is wrong in Washington. They also tend to be very highly educated and are often repelled by the simplistic rhetoric coming from the very far right. To win Virginia, we need 55 to 60 percent of the vote south of the Rapahanock and east of Norfolk/Newport News. We need Virginia Beach to offset losses elsewhere in tidewater and we need to hold down losses in Nova where the Washington Post will act as an opens sewer pipe for every low life blogger on the left. It would help for both Allen and our Presidential candidate to focus on a few messages critical to federal workers. First, reduction by attrition means that people currently employed who are doing a good job do not need to fear losing their jobs. Second, federal employees now have three plus years of first hand experience with Obama’s incompetency. They more than anyone else can understand the need for someone who can actually manage government effectively. Third, Democrats believe a senior GS-14 married to a mid-grade GS-13 with 2 kids equal a high income family that should be paying a whole lot more taxes.

  • carolynr

    After having lived there for over 40 years…believe me…I know the state well. There is one way that Perry will win the State. Get a very specific plan for SS. It should include his solution for those in their 40”4 early 50′s. It should include a private account, in their name for younger voters with a choice of plans…As safe as they can be. The real driver to take down South Florida is SS itself. It MUST REMAIN SOLVENT for the seniors. This is an excellent opportunity for Perry…in that with the payroll tax deduction is on the chopping block….seniors are worried that there won’t be anymore SS for them. Trust me…they will not support Obama…who has come out in favor of this temporary fix. This is extremely important to seniors and it is a MUST for Perry. This is not an opportunity to be missed.

    Read on Drudge today that there might be a problem with Medicare and paying the doctors after the first of the year….Here is another opening for Perry. Specifics….straight…and VERY EASY to understand.

    Perry also needs to talk up his JOBS program concerning energy instead of letting the other candidates claim it as their own. Specifics. Again…if you travel X amount of miles a week…it will cost in today’s prices $X. If we implement these projects…the same cost will be $X. Simple…easy…specific. They get it that way.