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Jon Huntsman’s Surge — Why a Huntsman 2nd place finish could significantly help Gingrich and/or Santorum

By: chrysostom15 (Diary)  |  January 10th, 2012 at 01:09 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Jon Huntsman is now surging in the polls.  He is in 3rd place in NH, and has a shot at placing 2nd.  Should he surge into 2nd place it would have the following effects:

  1. It would further destroy Ron Paul’s campaign.  Paul will have finished 3rd in Iowa and NH — both states where he was 2nd in the polls on election day; but will have moved to 3rd on election night.  Such a result would further show him a fring candidate unable to win any GOP primary.
  2. It would give Huntsman a Santorum-like surge of momentum.
  3. It would provide the first moderate alternative to Mitt Romney

Despite what Ron Paul and Rick Perry voters may say, Santorum and Gingrich are currently splitting the conservative vote right down the middle.  Romney has the liberal vote all to himself, and much of the moderate vote.  Paul has a sliver of the conservative vote and his Paulites.  Perry has his group of Perry devoties, but no support beyond this small base.   Jon Huntsman would be the first canidate who could seriousily challenge Romney for the liberal to moderate win of the GOP.  If Huntsman takes off, the support would come largely from Romney, and would act to split the smaller liberal/moderate wing of the GOP, allowing either Gingrich or Santorum (or even both) to mount realistic campaigns for SC and potentially even FL.

While a 2nd place finish by Gingrich or Santorum would give them a boost, it would give Romney a larger boost.  However, a 2nd place finish by Huntsman would actually mean that some SC voters who would otherwise vote for Romney, may switch to Huntsman.  The same is true in FL and beyond.   Ideally, Huntsman can make it through Super tuesday and beyond where he can eat into Romney and force Romney to move left and fight left, opening up more room on the right for Gingrich and/or Santorum.

The winner of the Gingrich/Santorum conservative primary will eventually face the winner of the Romney/Huntsman liberal primary….the longer the liberal primary goes on, the better for conservatives.  Of course the same is true on the conservative side.

COMMENTS

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  • mikeymike143

    and what you say makes perfect sense. romney and huntsman do pull from the same voter pool.

    and a santorum/gingrich or a gingrich/santorum ticket would also consolidate the conservative and tea party primary voters. i dont think mitt has a path to win if that happens.

  • dpmapper

    Nice. :) I made the same point a few days ago: even if you don’t like Huntsman, if you’re anti-Romney you should root for Huntsman to stay in as long as possible.

    http://www.redstate.com/dpmapper/2012/01/09/what-do-romney-voters-want/

    Of course, I’d also argue that Huntsman’s policy proposals are actually more conservative than most think.

  • spainishirish

    After tonight, Huntsman has a very slight chance to be the only viable alternative left to challenge Romney, and it will depend on the spread and how it is spun. If Paul places second, and Huntsman is a distant third or worse, it is game, set, match for Team Romney and the primary is effectively over.

    In other words, I don’t think the post-New Hampshire scenario you laid out is plausible, and even a Huntsman second place finish tonight might fizzle next week in South Carolina if Romney wins there as well. This isn’t what I want but what I expect, and regardless I will support the nominee fully .

  • languedoctor

    I sort of disagree. The Huntsman campaign is going nowhere – and I say this as someone who *doesn’t* reflexively dislike the guy.

    Right now, you have Romney on one side, Santorum/Perry/Gingrich on the other, and Paul/Huntsman sort of off to the side.

    If . . . IF . . . Huntsman were able to mount something resembling a real campaign, some of his support would come from Paul, but some of it would come from Romney. In other words, a viable Huntsman levels the playing field by creating infighting between Romney/Huntsman. The more those two duke it out, the less chance there is of Romney skating past a divided Santorum/Gingrich/Perry. I think.