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If Newt wants to stop Romney, Newt Should Drop out and endorse Santorum On March 16

The way primary math works out is such that for much of the primary season it does not hurt to have 2 conservatives splitting the vote.  Where it matters, however, is with winner-take-all states and winner-take-all districts.

 

On March 17, Santorum will win Missouri.  On the 18th Romney will win another non-state that shouldn’t be voting.  On the 20th Illinois has Gingrich at 12 percent, and Santorum is 4 percent behind Romney.  This state awards most delegates district-by-district.  Romney will win Chicago, and Santorum elsewhere.  In this state, Gingrich remaining in the race would cost the Santorum the state.  Gingrich working for Santorum, would flip the state to Santorum and be a big boost.

Louisiana is solid Santorum on the 24th.

On April 3th Wisconsin is winner-take-all and is 42 delegates.  If Gingrich is gone, these are a sure-thing for Santorum. The same day, Romney will win Maryland and DC.

 

ON April 24th come several states.  New York which is proportional, but should lean Romney.  Pennsylvania which should give the vast majority of its votes to Santorum based on having at-large delegates, and winner-take-all at the district level, and with Santorum having a good lead.  CT, RI, and DE also vote, but give fewer delegates; the majority of those will go Romney.

May 8th will give Santorum wins in North Carolina, Indiana, and West Virginia.  West Virginia is winner-take-all for Santorum.

Then we have Oregon which will go Romney; Kentucky which is Santorum;  Arkansas which is Santorum; and that leaves us with one prize left for May: Texas.

Texas is winner-take-all by district with a state-wide bonus.  Districts are hand-made in Texas to promote election Republicans.  The maps so far show Romney does best in Democratic districts.  So, it is actually very much possible for Santorum — if Perry backs him — to win 2/3 or more of TX delegates.

June 5th is California.  If Gingrich supporters move to Santorum, delegates will be divided between the two of them in a way that likely gives Romney most delegates; but that keeps it reasonable.  If Gingrich stays in, Romney will win the election on June 5th.

For the remaining states: New Jersey and Utah are winner-take-all states that will give Romney 90 Delegates.  South Dakota, Montana, and New Mexico are proportional.

 

When we look at this calendar, we see that many states have winner-take-all by district.  Gingrich dropping out would allow Santorum to win more delegates in those states than Santorum and Gingrich combined would win.

 

There is one other factor: money.  If one reads the public disclosure reports, it has become clear that –should Gingrich drop out — Santorum will be on an equal funding footing as Romney.  Last month Romney raised 11.5 million and Santorum raised 9 million.  Romney has tapped-out many donors and is facing the same problem Clinton did in 2008.  Santorum’s money is mainly from smaller donors who will give again.

 

Finally, there is one other key question.  Gingrich has a number of great supporters.  Rick Perry, Fred Thompson, Todd Palin, etc.  Perry alone could make a huge difference in Texas and elsewhere.  Not only with votes, but also with fund raising.

 

The math does not add up for Gingrich staying in.  Not just because his negatives are so high, but because Santorum is now the clear alternative to Romney.

 

I want to end this post by saying that I think Santorum is better than Romney.  1- Santorum is the stronger candidate.  Santorum is more electable for Ohio.  Santorum forces Obama to spend money on a number of mid-west states.  2- Santorum would be the better president.  I’ve heard some folks say Santorum was a fiscal moderate; not true.  He was always the most conservative member of the Senate leadership while he was in the Senate leadership.  Yes, he was a team player and did go along with Bush on many signature Bush issues.  However, a party divided cannot stand.  Had Santorum opposed Bush (like McCain did), he would hurt the conservative cause.  Every time Santorum voted to raise the debt; it was always to fund Iraq and Afghanistan.  Romney, meanwhile, was a horrible governor who raised state revenue and signed Romneycare.  Romney would be a horrible president.

 

So, I urge Gingrich, and his supporters to join Santorum.  Divided conservatives will lose; united we can win.

 

Finally, Gingrich and Perry are both conservatives and if the back Santorum, Santorum will listen to them.  There is nothing saying they cannot agree to back him with certain conditions and negotiate an agreement.  Then, when elected they can hold him to it.  McCain made an agreement with Bush that Bush would sign the campaign finance reform.  Bush hatted it, but agreed to get McCain’s backing.  Nothing stops Gingrich and Perry from making that deal with Santorum.

COMMENTS

  • http://www.mullinslawoffices.com/ Jim Mullins

    The West Virginia Republican primary election on May 8 is a beauty contest primary with completely separate elections for 18 at-large delegates and 3 congressional district delegates in each congressional district. The candidate list on the West Virginia Secretary of State’s web site includes a listing of all candidates for delegate to the Republican national convention and their commitment status.

    While there are 18 at-large delegate slots, Mitt Romney has 25 delegate candidates, Newt Gingrich has 23, Ron Paul has 19, but Rick Santorum has only 3. There are also 42 candidates who did not pledge to a particular candidate, who could be elected as uncommitted delegates.

    For the 3 district delegate slots in the 1st Congressional District, Mitt Romney has 8 delegate candidates, Gingrich has 10, Paul has 3, and Santorum has 2. There are 7 uncommitted candidates.

    For the 3 district delegate slots in the 2nd Congressional District, Mitt Romney has 7 delegate candidates, Gingrich has 6, Paul has 3, and Santorum has none. There are 10 uncommitted candidates.

    For the 3 district delegate slots in the 3rd Congressional District, Mitt Romney has 7 delegate candidates, Gingrich has 3, Paul has 3, and Santorum has none. There are 11 uncommitted candidates.

    In the interests of full disclosure, I have endorsed and voted for Governor Romney in the Virginia primary election after my recent move to Ole Virginny. Of course, consider that over the last 6 years, my picks for the 2008 Republican nomination were George Allen, then Fred Thompson, then Romney (I was a Romney delegate to the disastrous 2008 West Virginia Republican state convention in which Romney won a strong plurality on the first ballot but then lost after all the other candidates’ delegates combined forces to vote for The Huckster to deprive Romney the win he would have received had everyone cast their second ballots in good faith), and that I initially supported Rick Perry last summer before he became my most recent endorsement failure. I seem to be the Oscar the cat of Republican presidential candidate selection of late.

    Returning to the matter of the West Virginia Republican primary election on May 8, if no candidate has clinched our party’s nomination, West Virginia Republican primary voters will face a responsibility they have not faced since 1976. In addition to the beauty contest primary, the voters will have to wade through dozens of candidates for 18 at-large delegates and 3 congressional district delegates. In most years, the delegate election is of no consequence. However, if the nomination remains up for grabs, supporters of 3 of the 4 candidates have more than ample slates of committed delegates. However, Senator Santorum has the additional challenge of identifying the uncommitted delegates who will support him in Tampa and communicate to his voters the slate of uncommitted delegates he needs in order to make up for his failure to recruit delegate candidates and have them file to run as committed candidates. I will say that based on my personal knowlede of many of the delegate candidates, Senator Santorum would most likely secure the support of more than enough uncommitted delegate candidates to execute this strategy. However, the difficulty will lie in communicating to tens of thousands of voters throughout the state the exact slate of delegate candidates desired by the Santorum campaign.

    Why does Senator Santorum have so few committed delegate candidates? Simple: During West Virginia’s candidate filing period–which began January 9 and ended January 28, one week after the South Carolina primary–Senator Santorum did not file to run in the beauty contest primary until January 27 and his national campaign sent mixed messages concerning his status as a candidate for the long haul. This was a serious mistake, as West Virginia has very easy ballot access: a $2,500 filing fee and no petition signature requirements. Senator Santorum instead filed so late that many delegate candidates who would have committed to him instead filed to run as uncommitted candidates and did not take advantage of the short window of opportunity (closed February 14) to change their listed presidential candidate preference. Governor Romney and Speaker Gingrich both filed to run in the beauty contest primary during the first week of the 3-week filing period–not the next to last day–and consequently gave their supporters a more than ample opportunity to file to run for convention delegates. (I will fault these campaigns for not invoking their right under state law to file “official” delegate candidate lists that would have triggered a requirement that all unapproved candidates be listed on the ballot as uncommitted delegates.)

    Before I moved to Virginia recently, I served on the West Virginia Republican State Executive Committee. Last summer, the state committee made the heart-wrenching decision to abandon the state convention process that proved disastrous in 2008 for a primary election that we believed would make West Virginia irrelevant to the selection of our next President. However, if this prediction of irrelevance proves wrong, West Virginia Republicans will see a very interesting primary campaign coming their way–certainly far more interesting than the Romney-Paul cricket-chirping contest that visited Ole Virginny.

  • garfieldjl

    Newt can always drop out and back Santorum after the states that have to divide delegates proportionally are no longer in play.

    Same is true for Santorum.

    There may even be a few winner take all states that one or the other isn’t on the ticket (quite likely from Romney shannigans).

    As long as Newt decides to endorse Santorum or Santorum decides to endorse Newt before the winner take all states are in play, there is no reason for either one to drop out.