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2012 Poll Numbers show Obama beating Romney

By: chrysostom15 (Diary)  |  March 28th, 2012 at 11:39 AM  | 

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The three key states that the GOP must win to have a chance to beat Obama are: Virginia, Ohio, and Florida.  The latest polling data from Quinnipac shows the following:

  • Virginia: Obama 50, Romney 42
  • Florida: Obama 49, Romney 42
  • Ohio: Obama 47, Romney 41

When breaking down the polls, when voters were asked about the favorability of the Democratic Party, they were split down the middle.  However, when asked about the GOP, voters found the GOP to be unfavorable by about 10 points.   In Florida, Rick Scott has a 36% approval and a 52% dissapproval.  In Ohio, John Kasich is at 42/42.   In FL and OH, the percent satisfied is about 30%.  IN FL and OH 70% considers the US to be in a recession.  In Virginia, Obama beats a Romney/McDonnel ticket 50 – 43.  Tim Kaine is up by 47 – 44% over George Allen for Senate.  In Virginia, Romney is viewed favorable by 36% and unfavorable by 43%; Obama is at 51% favorable 44% unfavorable.  Romney wins Whites in Virginia 54-36, but loses blacks 5 to 95.  Obama wins military families with incomes under 100K, Romney wins those with incomes with over 100K by 47 to 46%, only 1 point.  Overall, military voters are voting against Romney in Virginia.  In Virginia 26% of Republicans are less exicted about voting in 2012 than 2008; whereas only 14% of Democrats are.

Interstingly, for Virginia, Obama has 49% approval rating with 47% dissapproving.  Yet, he is winning a Romney/McDonnel ticket by 50 – 43%.  This means that many voters who dissapprove of Obama continue to find Romney unacceptable.  Looking carefully at these numbers, it appears that certain groups — who do not like Obama — find Romney worse.  Amoung those groups are the folks in the military.  Unsaid in this poll is the even larger group of civilian federal employees and state employees who Romney has alienated. 

The GOP faces a real problem if we nominate Romney.  The sad truth is we also face this problem with Santorum or Gingrich.  We are turning off voters who do not like Obama.  George Allen has a 41% favorable 26% unfavorable after representing Virginia as a straight and consistant Bush vote from 2000 – 2006.  He is running 4 points ahead of a Romney/McDonnel ticket. 

We, as a party, need to take a real look at why we are losing in Virignia, Ohio, and Florida.  We must change course if we have any desire to win. 

Consider this a raising of a red flag.  The GOP is headed to a monumental loss if we cannot change course and start attracting moderates and swing voters.  We need to run to the center; not to the far right.  We need to build winning coalitions to win the election; not follow our path.

Right now the GOP is LESS motivated than the Democrats and LESS excited about voting for Romney than we were about McCain, and we have LESS support from independents and swing voters.

The only way forward if the GOP wants to remain a viable party is to develop real outreach to the swing voters we need to win, and make real policy changes. 

If the GOP becomes the party of Paul Ryan, Obama will get 350 electorial votes, hold the Senate and win-back the House.  We need to return to the era of Reagan-Bush.

COMMENTS

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  • naraht

    With the shift of Electoral College votes south, assuming Obama starts with the Kerry 2004 States at 246 votes, he needs 24 more electoral votes to get to 270. That can come from Florida (29) or come from Ohio (18) and Virginia (13) or even NV (6), CO(9), NM(5) & IA(6)

    I think if Lugar is the Senate Nominee then the Dems will write off Indiana. NE-2 was written off when Nebraska was redistricted. North Carolina will only be gone after if Virginia is looking really good.

  • acat

    First, there’s many ways to get to 270…

    Second, you’re still looking at polling prior to any one candidate clearly clinching the nomination. Right now, this is affected by a number of supporters who will change their minds over the summer.

    Further, your suggestion that Lugar is the best choice for getting GOP voters to the polls in Indiana is more of the dribbling anti-conservatism I’ve come to expect from you.

    Mew

    • APA Guy

      Take that to the bank, acat :)

      • acat

        Wish I could say the same, but … Illinois.

        *sigh*

        Mew

  • redmymind

    the same that got the likes of Dole and McCain nominated . . .

    Z-z-z-z-z-z-z-z-z-z-z-z-z . . .

    • demsaresatanic

      the best way to lose is to be democrat-lite.

    • garfieldjl

      If we could have McCain/Palin run again, let’s be honest here McCain/Palin would clobber Obama/Biden now that people know what Obama is really about.

      Dole was running against Bill Clinton whom let’s be honest was a much better President than the one we have currently.

      That would be like saying Dole was running against someone whom was worse than Jimmy Carter and lost. Clinton was a much better President than Carter.

      I don’t think Dole would have that much of a problem winning against Obama.

      McCain and Dole were both moderates, they had some liberal leanings and some conservative leanings.

      Let’s all be clear here, McCain was seriously handicapped by the fact Obama decided not to honor his promise to use public money for the campaign and thus keep the playing field even. He waited for McCain to be locked into it and then decided against it. Many people didn’t understand how radical Obama was until now.

      The people that blame Palin generally wanted Obama to be the victor anyways, or are buying into what the media wants people to believe. She provided a rallying point for the base.

      Now here is the problem we have and why McCain and Dole could clobber Obama but Romney probably can’t.

      Romney is a liberal, not a conservative, not a moderate, a liberal.

      Obama is far enough to the left and people realize it now, that McCain as a moderate could actually offer a pretty clear choice between himself and Obama. Same with Dole.

      Romney on the other hand is far enough to the left that he doesn’t offer that distinction. The liberals are going to vote for Obama mindlessly anyways. The moderates need a clear distinction between Obama and our candidate, as does our base.

      Santorum’s weakness is his potential to alienate moderates (though he can possibly show them that people shouldn’t believe the pack of lies from NY Times).

      Romney’s weakness is he alienates the base and doesn’t offer a clear difference between himself and Obama.

      So Santorum is the stronger candidate.

      Gingrich actually is stronger than Romney and Santorum, because he can only alienate moderates on his personal life, and people do have the capacity for forgiveness particularly when the alternative is to give Obama 4 more years. Gingrich also can get support from the base.

      We can only win if we have support from the base and moderates, the idea that liberals are going to vote for the Republican candidate is quite frankly laughable.