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PA Senate race turning into a dead-heat barnburner [Updated]

Rasmussen also confirming shift towards Sestak

By: civil truth (Diary)  |  October 22nd, 2010 at 05:19 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

[Update: 10/22/10 6:42 PM EDT: Rasmussen moves race from Solid Republican to Toss-up in just two weeks

More confirmatory evidence of that the Toomey-Sestak race is now essentially a dead-heat comes from Rasmussen today, showing an unfavorable trend line: an increase in support for Sestak while Toomey maintains the same level of support, indicating a break in undecideds towards Sestak. Toomey 48% Sestak 44%, 7% undecided. Polling taken last night (10/21, one night after first of two debates).

The stakes are thus very high going into tonight's second and last debate between the two candidates. Key sections from Rasmussen:

Republican Pat Toomey now holds just a four-point lead over Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak in the U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania. It’s the closest the contest has been since May...

The race now moves from Solid Republican to a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings. Less than two weeks ago, Toomey held a 10-point lead, 49% to 39%. The tightening of the race comes from an increase in support for Sestak while Toomey’s support remains steady.

Thank you to Southpaw75 for the heads-up.

End Update]

I would normally discount Politico except that this excerpt is from an e-mail message sent out to an e-mail distribution list from this individual, who’s a significant PA Republican player.

I’ve seen Neil question the other polling agencies. Nonetheless, the Toomey camp must be getting rather anxious as Pat Toomey’s early lead has evaporated.

The Politico article indicates that the Democratic money and ad buys have turned this race into a very tight effort whose outcome will surely rest on GOTV. As we know, the Democrats have all sorts of dead voters and ACORN-type fraud in the urban areas as a cushion, so our side is going to have to work even harder to overcome this handicap.

Folks, this has become a serious contest and a major test of wills. PA is a bellweather state, so these are the races we need to win or we’ll hear all sorts of refrains about how conservative Republicans can’t win.

Again, GOTV will be vital.

E-mail message follows including links:

As expected the race is tightening as the Democrats attempt to smear Pat Toomey as a right wing radical extremist religious fanatic

Barnburner: Pa. Senate is latest dead heat – Dan Hirschhorn – POLITICO.com A Public Policy Polling survey released Tuesday confirmed what Democrats have been arguing for months: The Keystone State’s Senate race is as competitive as any other in the country. For Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak, the 1-point edge over Pat Toomey marks a stark turnaround — one that is echoed by internal polls from both parties — and further evidence that the Navy man twice considered dead in the water this year has again pulled himself back onto the boat.

See also Muhlenberg Poll Sestak 44 Toomey 41 with 15% undecided.

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COMMENTS

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  • Southpaw75

    Don’t know the party breakdown though…

  • IJB

    Polling still shows Toomey winning Indies handily.

    As long as that continues, he can’t lose, barring Dem turnout EXCEEDING 2008 levels (which are virtually a scientific impossibility…).

    PA has many more registered D’s than R’s, so we will never win PA in a blowout. But every indication I’ve seen is that Ras has it about right in his last poll – Toomey’s up by about 4-5% if you assume a rational election turnout model, and will likely win this.

    If I were you, I’d be more worried about CO…

    • http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil_truth

      Several reasons that the situation is becoming very serious.

      Even in Rasmussen, Toomey only has 48%. In two weeks, all the undecided have been breaking for Sestak now that the Democratic advertising blitz has begun, whereas previously Toomey had this arena largely unchallenged.

      Add the unions and the fraud, and you’ll need at least a 1-2% lead to provide a margin.

      So we’re within the MOE, evidently and the trend line is downwards. And again, Ramussen has moved from Solid R to Toss-up.

      You just can’t take this race for granted.

      Especially since this is in keeping with the historical tendency for PA dithering Democrats to return to the fold as election time approaches. This is one reason PA has been such a disappointment come election time in recent years.

      Very dangerous situation brewing.

      • IJB
        • Jonbontx

          for granted. As Erick posted earlier this week, lets help Toomey however we can. Go to PA to help with the ground game, or send some money. I did what I could and sent some money.

          • http://www.theprecinctproject.wordpress.com ColdWarrior

            unless we get every single person involved in actual GOTV activities of some sort to the maximum extent possible.

            If you can only give money, GIVE.

            If you can also give time and effort, then get in contact with a campaign and help — do whatever the campaign asks. Some will want you to walk precincts. Some will want you to make phone calls. Some will have other needs. Just help.

            Thank you.

            For Liberty,
            ColdWarrior, PC (that?s ?precinct committeeman,? not ?political child!?)
            Conservatives, UNITE! CHANGE the Republican Party and save the world by UNITING INSIDE the Party as precinct committeemen. NOW! (11 days until Nov. 2 — what are YOU DOING to help get out the vote in your precinct?)

      • Dave_in_Fla

        I’m getting tired of the panic. A couple polls with questionable samples come out, then Rasmussen shows that Dems surprisingly plan to vote for Dems *rolls eyes*. Let’s all panic, doom is nigh.

        What is the one constant in all those polls? Sestak 44%.

        That is his topline support, everyone on the fence now either stays home or votes Toomey.

        Take a deep breath and chill out. Nothing in this race changed, so there is no reason for people to change their minds. People don’t wake up one morning and say, “You know, I’ve been angry at Obama and the Dem for over a year, but now that I’ve slept on it I think this country really needs Sestak”.

        If you need some bucking up, go read Sean Tredel’s piece at RCP today.

        • Dave_in_Fla

          You know the last race that looked like this one polling wise 11 days out? Chris Christie in New Jersey.

          • The_Rebel

            On January 10, 2010 the Boston Globe’s poll of likely voters had Scott Brown trailing Martha Coakley by 15 points, 50-35. And when undecided leaners were counted, Coakley led by 17 points, 53-36:

            http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2010/01/10/senate_poll_coakley_up_15_points/

            All Scott Brown did was win by 5 points, 52-47.

            So let’s keep this poll in mind as we watch some of these DEM polls (PPP) try to dampen our enthusiasm. They sure failed in the case of Scott Brown.

          • Dave_in_Fla

            But that was a fast closing wave race. Toomey has been ahead for a long time, similar to Christie. In NJ Gov the polls started trying to manufacture a tightening for Corzine, that fizzled when actual voters did their voting.

            However, I agree that the failure of the MA Sen polls to accurately calculate the likely voters is similar to this one. Bottom line, Toomey will win by 4 to 6, just like he was expected to back in February.

            Or if Sean Treadle’s calculations are shown to be correct (GOP support being underestimated by 3-4% across the board) then it will be a 7 to 9 point win.

          • The_Rebel

            was that in their survey 1 in 4 respondents said they were extremely interested in the Senate race, with both candidates tied at 47 percent among that group. And that 47 percent is the number that Coakley ultimately received.

            I’m sure a similar survey in PA would show Toomey with a much greater lead than the 4 points Rasmussen has him at. Unless some pollsters really want us to believe that the Dems are more motivated than the rest of us right now.

            On November 3rd, for those pollsters trying to get the crap out of their mouths, it won’t be “got milk?”, but rather, “got egg?”.

          • http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil_truth

            Boston Globe is not Rasmussen

            Special elections are notoriously difficult to predict voting because, by definition they are special elections.

            It’s ridiculous to use Brown as a proxy for Toomey.

            Maybe the numbers will settle down for Toomey, but you can’t count on it, especially in Pennsylvania with its core of folks who just can’t bring themselves to actually pull that Republican lever when push comes to shove, no matter what they say beforehand.

            But hey, if Toomey recovers and wins a convincing victory, that’s great. My purpose again is to motivate, not to get people running around in circles. After all, the basics of campaigning haven’t changed.

          • Dave_in_Fla

            Panic over a couple questionable polls just depresses our already motivated base, and doesn’t encourage anyone on the fence to go out and vote for Toomey. Enough people remember Sen Franken to think “why bother, the Dems just have the whole thing rigged”.

            Toomey is comfortably ahead, just like he has been for months. Buying into manufactured spin trying to incite panic and depress turnout doesn’t help motivate anyone. These polls are out there for one reason only, to give the Dem’s depressed base a reason for hope and to go to the polls. FWIW, you aren’t the only one that gets caught up by these polls, Rich Lowry gets sucked in by these every election cycle.

            Remember that one constant in all the polls, Sestak is at 44%. You can’t win with 44%. It is the same reason why Reid is pinning his hopes on “None of the above”. He can’t break 46%, so he has to hope that 5% or so vote, but don’t vote for Angle. You don’t want to be polling in the 40′s as the incumbent party during a wave election 10 days out. Because you WILL lose.

          • http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil_truth

            1) What evidence do you have to malign Rasmussen, for example (Neil can address the others) and impugn their professional integrity by this statement of yours?

            Buying into manufactured spin trying to incite panic and depress turnout doesn?t help motivate anyone. These polls are out there for one reason only, to give the Dem?s depressed base a reason for hope and to go to the polls.

            You’d better come up with some data or else your engaging in slander.

            2) Incumbent party? Not sure what you mean: this is an open seat that was previously occupied for by Specter for some 30 years, who was a Republican (until he switched parties earlier this year).

            If you’re referring to the Democrats nationally as the “incumbent” party – not sure how that translates to the Senate – depends on how well the Republicans are able to make this race a referendum on Obama and the Dem policies. Not sure of the situation in PA regarding that.

          • distantvoter

            the two of you might just agree to disagree?

            It’s simply a matter of different interpretations of the data, the data being that the polls have tightened somewhat.

            Personally, I’m all for piling in and winning as big as we can in PA, especially on GOTV. There are a lot of down-ticket races that matter that aren’t decided yet.

          • Dave_in_Fla

            Ok, let me try again and be very very clear.

            I believe that the only pollster that is getting close to the truth is Rasmussen. That is why he shows a 4% lead and I said I expect the victory to be a solid 4% to 6%. I have expected PA Senate to be a 4% win for Toomey since “dead man walking” Spectre lost the primary.

            The polls that I absolutely distrust are PPP and Muhlenberg. Both of those polls are using a turnout model where Dem turnout is higher than 2008.

            I don’t believe that there is any reason to panic, the state of this race has not changed and has not “tightened”. Instead, loyal Dems that were not passing the likely voter screen because they were not paying attention are now paying attention. Sestak’s problem is that there aren’t enough of those to get him over the 50% mark. The number of Republican and Independent voters exceed the number of Democrat voters.

            The one interesting wrinkle is the analysis the Sean Treadle did that indicates that even Rasmussen may be under counting Rep turnout by 2-3%. If Sean is right, then it isn’t slander, it just means that no one has a model that captures the nature of this particular election.

            So in my opinion, Sestak has limited options for victory:

            1) Republicans don’t turn out – After the last 2 years what Republican isn’t willing to crawl over broken glass to vote this year?

            2) Democrats far exceed their 2008 turn out – With Obama not on the ticket, and all of those Dems running against Obama/Pelosi/Reid how does that happen?

            3) Independents that went 60/40 for Obama in 2008 do it again this year – Given the viceral anger in the electorate, why would PA Independents act differently than anyplace else?

            This is a wave election that is already cresting higher than 1994, and has the potential of being of historic proportions. Toomey will win, and win by at least 4. Any “tightening” you are seeing is not a reflection of the voter intentions, but instead a reflection of changing likely voter screens.

            *IF* Toomey loses, then it will be because the great wave of 2010 was not as great as we expected, and Kirk, Angle, Fiorna, Rossi, Buck, and Rease will also be losing.

            By all means, donate, help make phone calls, walk the precincts. Just don’t panic, as long as Toomey executes his final election strategy, he will win.

          • http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil_truth

            I’m not trying to stir up panic at this time, but our level of concern clearly differs.

            In 10 days will come the only poll that matters – the voters.

            Pace

          • The_Rebel

            And let’s keep in mind that we are not going to win all of these races by blowouts. Some are going to be razor thin, but victories, nonetheless. We need troops (poll watchers, lawyers) on the ground in those close contests to ensure that our victories don’t turn into Al Franken thefts.

        • http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil_truth

          The change was from 49% Toomey, 39% Sestak to 48% Toomey, 44% Sestak.. You have no way to say that 44% is topping out when all the movement n the two weeks is undecideds breaking for Sestak and there are 7-8% undecideds yet to go.

          Regardless, what matters most is that the PA folks are taking these numbers seriously and realize they need to redouble their efforts for GOTV in light of these numbers. That’s at least what BG e-mailed me back after I sent him the Rasmussen info.

          And what my purpose here mostly is to indicate that donations are still needed and to roust PA Republicans here to get more involved in GOTV. Which is the most that I can do from 3,000 miles for my PA friends.

          • Dave_in_Fla

            I’m not comparing to previous polls from the same firm, I’m comparing between the polls.

            So a bunch of Dems, in a D+ state started paying attention and decided they are going to vote for a Dem (if they vote). That is all the 39 to 44 move means. R+I in PA is greater than D, and nothing is being done or said that will switch an I to a D. Structurally, Sestak has a tough row to hoe. He has to convince independents, during a wave election, where they are overwhelmingly voting for the R in the congressional and governor’s races, that despite his membership in the Democrat party, he really is a better choice over someone who is well known and well liked in the state.

            Color me skeptical.

          • http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil_truth

            First of all, we’re all limited in our interpretation if we don’t have access to the poll internals.

            In particular, it’s especially difficult to compare polls from different companies because of difference in sampling methods if you don’t have the poll internals to compare – such as their percentages of D-R-I and registered vs. “likely” voters. In addition comparing polls at the same time represents a snapshot, but if you want to understand trajectory, you need to look at changes over a time period.

            So the best way to see where the race is going is to see the time changes, using the same polling company (especially Rasmussen, which has the best reputation) to minimize confounding variables in terms of methodoloy.

            So we see a Rasmussen trend line in which undecideds are breaking for Sestak and Toomey ‘s support is remaining static. From the outside, that is a least unsettling because 48% still loses. And Rasmussen has moved the race from Solid R to Toss-up, so they’re clearly seeing something to change their assessment, which has to be based on the change over time.

            So let’s look at your sweeping assertions in the absence of internal evidence:

            (1)So a bunch of Dems, in a D+ state started paying attention and decided they are going to vote for a Dem (2)(if they vote). That is all the 39 to 44 move means. R+I in PA is greater than D, and (3) nothing is being done or said that will switch an I to a D. Structurally, Sestak has a tough row to hoe. He has to convince independents, during a wave election, where they are (4) overwhelmingly voting for the R in the congressional and governor?s races, that despite his membership in the Democrat party, he really is a better choice over someone who is well known and (6) well liked in the state.

            (1) What evidence do you have about the composition of those who’ve moved from undecided to Sestak? Otherwise, this statement is sheer speculation.

            (2) Moreover, Rasumssen polls likely voters, so your statement about these folks “staying home” has no validity unless you’re prepared to challenge Rasmussen’s algorithm and have a better one of your own.

            (3) By you same logic, nothing will switch an I to an R. Nobody’s talking about them assuming a party identity. But the I voters have to pick one of the two, and so far it appears they’re picking Sestak. We (you and I) don’t have the evidence to know anything more about what flavor of “I” they are.

            (4) Do you evidence to support you assertion that PA Independents are “overwhelmingly voting for the R in the congressional and governor?s races” – especially the former. For instance we have another barnburner in PA-08, which is D+2 and a bellweather district that goes back and forth over the years. If PA voters were following the “wave” this should be strongly in the R camp. But this race a Toss-up and the Dems are putting $750K into advertisements this last week, so they must see this as competitive. Not exactly overwhelming support for the Republicans here.

            (5) Well-liked? In 2004, Toomey was sandbagged by the PA-GOP establishment and lost narrowly to Specter in the primary – and we see how that worked out. These “moderates” still don’t like Toomey, so right after Specter pulled his surprise switch back to being a Democrat (because Toomey this time was running stronger than in 2004), the Establishment immediately desperately tried to recruit someone else to oppose Toomey in the primary specifically because they didn’t want Toomey (because they feel he’s too conservative, which interesting is Sestak line of attack that’s been moving undecideds). They tried to run someone against him, but that person decided in the end not to go in. So your “well-liked” is dubious. (Sorry, I didn’t keep my e-mails from then, so I don’t recall the name(s) of who were being wooed.)

            So how about some humility in the face of a lack of data and take the prudent course of noting a disturbing trend in a blue-leaning bellweather state and realize that this race is not a cake-walk.

            Again, the Toomey campaign people are concerned – and that’s what matters. But they need more help – hence my posting since people here who have been relying on past polls are wrongly assuming that this one is in the bag for Toomey.

          • Dave_in_Fla

            Let me leave it at I personally know Pat Toomey. Your analysis, especially point #5 is way off base.

          • http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil_truth

            See infra…

          • http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil_truth
  • expatuae

    The polls got a lot of people (including myself) to donate- it seems many others like the Club for Growth are stepping up with larger contributions.

    This will be a close race and Toomey needs to take control of the airwaves and GOTV. And hope it rains in Philadelphia Nov 2nd too since machine Democrats don’t vote as early and often in the rain.

    BTW, is there data out showing how much of the swing has come from the Philly suburbs? Haven’t seen any county/ CD breakdown, though I’m curious.

    Esp regarding Specter’s old base- like Margorie Margoles Mezvinsky’s (sp) old district had some of the highest Republican registration to Democratic presidential voting of anywhere in the country. Mirror image of many places in the south. Toomey is a conservative who can win these areas, though he is now swimming uphill with the O’Donnell effect.

    Didn’t think there is too much love for Sestax in the suburbs either. Even barring rain, I’d be surprised if the city machine operates at optimum levels for him, barring an obscene amount of WAM motivation (and nice weather).

    • bluerose75

      Both Civil Truth and expatuae are clearly buying into the left and the panic syndrome in PA. Undecideds? give me a break I am sick of that term. Sestak is very well know as is Toomey. To say the undecideds are breaking for Sestak is laughable. They already knew who they were voting for. Sestak has basically topped at about 45 percent. DEMS lead in registration in a DEM state….BIG SHOCK!! The curious thing is then why is Sestak not at 52 percent or 53 percent…I mean according to Civil Truth the Toomey campaign is in PANIC MODE!! everything is lost and heck send more money because Sestak is unbeatable. This is a distortion but so is Civil Truth’s panic!!

      As for expatuae I am sick of you and your O’Donnell effect garbage. Her running in Delaware has not a darn thing to do with areas that are already heavily DEMOCRAT!! You are obsessed with the Philly Suburbs and quite frankly that is to be suspected. Toomey will not win in those areas and yet you continually dwell on it.

      This race will be won with the Independents siding with Toomey and that is where he needs to focus. The Republicans are fired up in PA and know that is at stake. God just listening to Sestak act like he really was not a fan of the”BAILOUTS” and how he is an Independent Voice is sickening. It is like he is on Fantasy Island with Mr Rourke and Tattoo!!

      Dick Morris and others have made it clear the polls including Rasmussen are undercounting the Republican Vote by anywhere from 3-5 percent. Mr Morris points out that they are using Likely Voter models that are not picking this up because the Voter Models are not matching the Republican enthusiasm. They are using models to overstate Dems and understate Republicans and Independents. This, as Mr Morris points out, is why the polls are off. And this man is by far the BEST I have ever seen at understanding American Politics and Voters. People may not like him but he has been dead on!!

      Remember the Polls would rather show a close race that ends up with a blowout then a race they show a blowout that ends in a dead heat or loss. IT IS CALLED REPUTATION!!

      PA is indeed close but ever since PPP came out Civil Truth and expatuae have just hammered this site about Toomey’s impending loss. I just hope Mr. Toomey ignores both of them and continues his charge for the Independents and Republicans. He is a head but yes we need to continue to push but not panic!!

      • expatuae

        with your last paragraph. Toomey will not be complacent and he’ll win.

        But the suburbs of Philadelphia are hardly Democratic bastions. What Republican has won the state without winning the 4 surrounding counties? Prove me wrong. But Claiming O’Donnell has no negative effect on PA is wishful thinking.

        My only point has been that out of state donors should be informed about the dynamic here. And IMO money would better be spent elsewhere given that she is pushing $4mm and will be competing on the same stations with Toomey. Other than that, I wish her well and hope she wins.