McCain Adviser Holtz-Eakin Gives a Teleconference
More on McCain’s Economic Proposals
By blackhedd Posted in Douglas Holtz-Eakin | Economic Policy | Economy | McCain — Comments (35) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
I just attended a press call given by Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Senator McCain’s senior adviser for economic policy. He was there to take questions from the press, to clarify some important statements that the Senator made in Pittsburgh.
Doug didn’t really have too much to add to what McCain said. The headlines are: a proposal to eliminate the 18-cent-per-gallon federal tax on gasoline for several months this summer; support for proposals to improve student-loan availability this fall in the face of the continuing credit crisis; support for a quite complex program that would facilitate private workouts of distressed mortgages; and some clear statements on tax and fiscal policy.
The important takeaway from the McCain campaign is that Washington does not have a revenue problem, as the current tax system has no trouble taking 19% of GDP out of the economy. Rather, we have a spending problem.
Much has been made of McCain’s statements in favor of a two-track income tax system, but Doug clarified that the Senator has yet to espouse a specific proposal. The general drift is that he wants to enact a simplified (presumably flatter) tax system that individuals can choose, at their option, when paying their taxes. Again, no further details.
The most important points were made in terms of spending and revenue reductions. The Senator hopes to enact about $195 billion (by my count) in annual revenue reductions through a variety of means (including changes in the corporate tax rate, and “base-broadeners” like eliminating what is often called “corporate welfare"). And the revenue cuts would be balanced by equal-sized cuts in discretionary spending, including earmarks. Pretty good stuff, and a pretty good start.
On taxes, Doug stated that McCain intends to scrap the alternative-minimum tax altogether, not just patch it as the Democrats have been doing. Good idea.
He also stressed repeatedly that we have no need to increase taxes. The combination of spending cuts and revenue reductions will be revenue neutral.
-Francis Cianfrocca (“blackhedd”)
McCain Adviser Holtz-Eakin Gives a Teleconference 35 Comments (0 topical, 35 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
He's going to scrap the AMT, and then add back something that's almost identical to it, as optional. Maybe with the rates set differently, but isn't the AMT essentially a flatter tax with two rates?
I just don't see how this helps anything.
As things stand today, you're required to figure your taxes using both methods, and pay whichever amount is higher.
Although McCain has endorsed no specific proposal, he's interested in giving taxpayers the option to use a simpler, flatter system, alongside the existing one.
I still question the utility of this because those with the burden of the AMT today will probably mostly be figuring it both ways anyways. And other than the bottom line writing of the check, tax form preparation just isn't that bad for most Americans with Turbo Tax, etc.
As an aside, I think the ease of use of things like Turbo Tax has all but doomed any chance for real tax reform.
I just wish that they hadn't shut down fred08.com. I would link to it if I could, but I remember it being an optional lower tax rate without deductions for those that prefered a much more simple approach to tax filings.
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I've been a mild advocate for making the AMT optional (for all filers) and perhaps lowering the rates. It would be something like, you can pay 20% on your whole tax or do the complicated thing. It is a foot-in-the-door to a simple tax system.
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As a CPA (licensed in FL & VA) I would love to see the AMT go away. Far too many people are getting hit by it - and it's no fun explaining it to them. They don't get it and think it's unfair.
The good news is you're rich now!
The bad news is that now you're required to support everyone who's not rich.
The one instance that I remember most was the taxes of an elderly lady that had a lot of medical deductions & tax-exempt interest - these are just two of the items adjusted when calculating the AMT. She was pretty well off, but not super rich - and she had health problems that were eating away her life savings. The AMT only increased her taxes a small amount, but I really hated to see that.
I have to pay a huge state income tax, an equally huge city income tax, and real-estate taxes.
All of those deductions go away when I do the AMT calculation. I pay higher taxes because I pay high taxes.
That's maddening. Why do I still live here? Well, I might not for much longer.
starving artists in Soho and other depressed areas, who like as not are trust fund babies who hold rent-controlled apartments.
Don't you realize there are people just blocks away from you who would starve* to death without the subsidies taxpayers like you provide? Some of them have been reduced to growing their own food in their Hamptons summer places.
Where's your compassion? Noblesse oblige, ya know?
*defined as going without mocha latte and biscotti following meal of lobster thermidor- the normal simple fare of working people in a seaport.
Your ridiculous corporate rent tax. (Yes tax companies for paying rent)
Various utility taxes.
Is it still 15% parking tax for Manhattan alone (Democracy and populism at work)
The state gas tax
The tolls on anything that goes in or out of the city.
Have I missed anything ?
Cheer up though NJ,PA,CT are all pretty much just as bad.
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
My only objection to getting rid of the AMT immediately is that we may need it to negotiate with. Right now it's hitting more blue state residents than red state residents. That means that Democrats now have an incentive to kill/adjust/etc. the darn thing. If Republicans just agree to get rid of the AMT without getting reductions in other onerous taxes that Democrats like, we'll never have leverage to go after the other stuff.
I hate to keep a tax just for this cynical purpose, but with ruthless, untrustworthy folks like Pelosi and Reid on the other side it may be necessary.
one must always be a little bit cynical when dealing with politics.
Now also found at The Minority Report
If the goal is to stimulate the economy in the short term, it seems to me that McCain's suspension of the gasoline tax will do the job better than any Keynesian tax rebate. Transport costs drop, prices drop, people can afford more, etc.
The States should follow suit.
...by surging to fill that tax gap with tax increases of their own, that maintain the current price and reap "windfall profits" for their own pet projects.
But the WSJ points out that it may not be such a great idea.
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/04/15/mccains-gas-tax-plan-may-be-a-c...
I question the assertion that it will cause an increase in demand, however. It seems to me that most people now are using as little gas as possible, and given a slight decrease in the cost would not increase their use. Each fillup would simply be a little less out of pocket.
I don't have empirical evidence, this is just the sense I have.
For some empirical evidence on the elasticity of gasoline demand, see this report from the CBO entitled Effects of Gasoline Prices on Driving Behavior and Vehicle Markets. Here's one quote from the summary:
The nationwide increase in gasoline prices since 2003 has not merely slowed the rate of growth in gasoline consumption. Through the third quarter of 2007, real consumer purchases of gasoline—which can be thought of as a measure of quantities consumed—had fallen slightly in 8 of the preceding 10 quarters, compared with purchases the year before (see Summary Figure 1). Such declines, although small, occurred despite continued population growth, changing patterns of residential development and job location, and technological change, all of which have encouraged the increasing consumption of gasoline, particularly in recent decades.
with prices as high as they are now, however, I would still be surprised if demand increased at all significantly with the repeal of the federal tax. It surely will have some effect, but i doubt it would be enough to offset the savings of ending the tax.
Plus, this is good politics. And I am always surprised by the amount of people who don't even know that Washington taxes every gallon of gas they buy. Perhaps this proposal will help some people realize the extent of taxation on the part of the government.
including AMT repeal, a cut in corporate tax rates, and a doubling of the exemption. I'm not crazy about the gas tax holiday because temporary relief tends to create perverse incentives. Now a permanent repeal ... :)
What a DUMB idea: Cut the gasoline tax to lower the price of gasoline so that there's an incentive to consume more of it, thus bidding up the price of a barrel of oil even higher. Which will help drive down the dollar even lower. Say hello to $120 per barrel oil; maybe even $130 per barrel oil.
That's the exact OPPOSITE of what we should be doing: RAISE the gasoline tax and LOWER the capital gains tax.
Supply-side theory holds that the tax system should reward INVESTMENT, not CONSUMPTION.
Lowering the gasoline tax is an incentive to consume more gasoline. But it does nothing to produce one more barrel of oil to meet that demand.
In this War on Terror, with oil already over $110 per barrel, the one thing we do NOT need is more incentives to consume more oil. The only beneficiaries of that will be the Muslim oil states, Chavez in Venezuela, and a couple of huge multinational oil companies which are sycophants of the Muslim oil shieks anyway.
A rational policy on energy would be to put a FLOOR on the price of gasoline: Make sure it never goes below $3.20 per gallon again, raising taxes as necessary to make sure OPEC can't turn on the spigot and drive the price down again. That's the kind of market stability that will enable developers of alternative energy to take the years necessary to develop their alternatives.
If you want to see alternative sources of energy developed, then STOP SUBSIDIZING oil with low taxes.
are killing the economy. No economy has prospered by making energy more expensive. McCain wants to drop the price of gasoline temporarily to jump start the economy. In the short run that's ok. However, he also needs to propose expanded drilling and conversion of coal into oil. We need to drastically expand the supply of fuel for the economy to be on solid footing.
Or nukular, I suppose.
If we want energy independence, it will hurt in the short run but 100 nuclear power generators in the country would allow us to say "stuff it" to the countries who sell us oil.
When electricity is cheap, electric cars become more than viable. So many things become viable with cheap, cheap, cheap energy.
And oil will never give us cheap energy again.
Man is free at the moment he wishes to be. --Voltaire
at a total cost of approx $2 trillion to replace all of our gasoline consumption with electricity. Also, since we can't build more than about 8 - 10 plants in a given year, it would take more than 50 years to get the generation on line. We'll be burning gasoline for quite a while yet.
There is only one Japanese company that can make the pieces of a containment vessel. They are booked up and have very limited capacity.
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
There is currently one Japanese manufacturer who can forge reactor vessels who is booked until 2023. However, there is also a Russian fabricator and I think we'll see US capacity again in a few years.
Ok thats funny. Not as funny as I'll have the Chernobyl special. Or, Does it need lighting or is it just self illuminating ?
I am sorry just the idea of buying reactor equipment from the Russians is so mind boggling. Maybe they could also do the training.
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
they have pretty good capability. Cherobyl had more to do with not following written safety regulations and the design of the plant (graphite moderated- positive temperature coefficient and no containment) rather than the quality of any individual component. We'd do 100% radiography on any vessel before installing it anyway.
Do you want to be the guy presenting the proposal to the board of directors of a utility company ?
Chairman: Very good Echosterman and just how did you manage to get the reactor vessel so quickly ?
It makes the Abbeynormal scene in young frankenstein seem somber.
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
There are a number of reactor heads in service in US nuclear plants that were fabricated at that plant in Russia. Of course under US Quality assurance programs.
...spending for other consumer goods. From reports I've read, gasoline usage is about 1% lower now than 12 months ago, which could easily be a result of the slower economy rather than demand elasticity.
If this is true, then a lower gasoline price would not generate a usage spike. Anyway, that's the theory.
By the way, the crude-oil price is rising because the dollar is falling, not the other way around.
Dumb:
“Make sure it never goes below $3.20 per gallon again, raising taxes as necessary…”
Why is it every “solution” has to punish every poor shulp for the “crime” of having to go to work? You assume we all go driving for absolutely no legitimate reason.
Big government intervention, such as your describe, is EXACTLY why we have the problem we have now. If the government wasn’t throttling domestic production or mandating ethanol we wouldn’t be in this mess right now.
P.S. If “alternate” (a.k.a. Unworkable) fuel can’t compete with $110 barrel oil it ain’t much of an alternate.
Doug re-iterated McCain's commitment to fiscal balance either in four years or eight years. (Yes, he said this means that McCain intends to be President for eight years.)
The sliding scale on the timing of a return to fiscal balance will depend on whether Congressional Democrats cooperate with him. If yes, four years to balance. If not, eight.
Some of the Medicare changes would certainly be welcome to scale back related costs. However, we are not really hearing much with respect to another looming problem, Social Security. In 2000 McCain supported ideas such as Spending Accounts but now seems tepid on that issue. Overall, this is a potential disaster which could have a significant economic in years to come and we get mostly crickets from McCain. It’s probably a good thing that Barry and Hillary both are seeking to square the circle by – dramatic pause – raising the SS payroll tax.
The other monkey wrench is McCain’s (or should I say McCain-Lieberman) “cap and trade” proposal. This whole phony Global Warming phenomenon will have a substantial cost to industry; guess who ends up paying that cost? In this market with the cost of consumer goods rising it is inconceivable he would buy into such unsubstantiated, meretricious arguments.
I understand the emotional pull of earmarks and the corrupting influence. Nonetheless, $18 billion (or $60 billion measured by Holtz-Eakin as recurring obligations) is miniscule in this budget. Cutting the corporate rate and some of the related regulations would be very welcome in this business environment. The punitive nature of that combination has forced many companies to be very creative in how they are organized, ultimately resulting in lost tax receipts. Overall, I give him a B- so far however with some more specifics on the big ticket items he might drag me along to the A range; again specifics, not platitudes.
Anyway, on both the economic and regulatory front I have many more questions from Mr. Holtz-Eakin which will be personally asked in the very near future.
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