Redstate

...if she's the nominee, so yeah.

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

But after Obama's season of Gaffes and revelations, I don't think those freshmen congresscritters are going to be too happy with him on the ticket.

Of course the GOP has done such a wonderful Throwing Retirement parties recruiting who knows.

Obama is making Hillary look better and better. Making her look more centrist. I say bring on Obama.

Ask not what I can do for my country, ask what my country can do for me. Washington Elected Elite

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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater

Well played, sir. Well played.

as Jeri Ryan is probably the one person most responsible for Obama's political rise.

McCain '08

but rather the (illegally?) unsealed divorce documents that tubed Ryan's campaign.

legally under the guise that they were of Public intrest. Obama himself said he was aganist the release, though I always found it fishy that Jon Corzine was the head of DSEC that cycle and he was Ryan's boss at Goldman Sachs.

McCain '08

but then I never was a Voyager fan. Even after they got Jeri for the show.

Hillary told party leaders that very thing. She also said that Obama's youthful activists have "intimidated" her people at the caucuses. She didn't say whether she just meant they create a bandwagon effect for Obama, or something more insidious than that.

And just a couple days ago, Bill Clinton said that if the Democratic Party were following the GOP primary rules, Hillary would be the nominee.

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

My A). is that... well, I could pretty it up more, but it's essentially that having a primary and a caucus does absolutely nothing for a state party except give somebody who can't win the popular vote an opportunity to scam extra delegates, which is pretty much what happened here. Even if Texas was in play, Clinton would be more likely to win it in the general.

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

Clinton hasn't really talked about it - nobody has. They just say "Obama wasn't on the ballot." Well that was his own fault. He WAS on the ballot. The Party didn't ask them to take their names off the ballot, they only told the candidates that they should refrain from campaigning there (or Florida).

I have two possible reasons why he did it. He's politically tone deaf, as bird notes, and had no clue how to play. Or, more likely in my mind, he knew exactly what he was doing - he knew that between Clinton and Edwards he would not win Michigan and might very well finish third in a race where they were all included. That would hurt, even if there were no delegates and he had won IA and NH. So, he jumped at the chance when Edwards pulled himself off the ballot and ducked out too - instantly delegitimizing any result that came from the state. If he had been left on the ballot and lost 2 to 1 would we be having the angst over their delegation right now? Probably not - they'd be just another FL, getting some sort of "half delegation" compromise. Hillary would have the popular votes, the added delegates, and would have an even stronger "I win where it really matters" argument.

As for the general arguments - I think that any TX situation should be treated as a primary. Clinton won the votes of more Texans in the primary than Obama received in the caucuses. The DNC should prohibit any "two-step" contests as it is inherently confusing. On this note, I would also be more inclined to look at the totals and margin from the WA primary, even though it was non-binding, rather than caucuses in which we got no information about what the raw popular vote totals were. The country is one of voting - the caucus is an outdated and archaic practice that should have already died out - it discourages involvement (due to the commitment necessary), and tends to skew results away from the average citizen and towards the political addicts (people like us here), some seniors who have nothing to do, college kids who can blow off classes or homework for a day, and other such under-representative groups. The average guy who works 10 hours a day isn't going to be interested in taking time off, or using his precious few evening hours (or a weekend day) to sit and do this kind of thing. Those people who are raising families probably aren't going to take a break from the kids for a caucus, assuming they can find child care for that block of time. If you're going to pay a babysitter, you'd probably rather go to dinner and a movie, not a numbingly boring political meeting.

Clinton should probably undermine the very validity of caucuses - expose them for what they are - highly defective means of finding the right person for a job like President. Undermine the legitimacy of the process by which Obama amassed his lead. While that process is highly representative of the most rabid partisans in the Party (the MoveOn, lefty college kid, elite liberal demographic), it is not the way to get an accurate picture of the average American who identifies himself as a Democrat. Why should "regular Joes" be discounted?

In TX the caucuses had several stages, only the first of which was on election evening. People have told me about spending an entire Saturday at the followup meetings.

This is why it's good to go GOP in TX, where Dick Cheney & co arrange things with a minimum of inconvenience!

Amazing though it may be, McCain could actually win this thing. If you think it's going to be a blowout, though, you have another thing coming.

www.republicansenate.org

She won women by 2-1,....Obama trotted out his usual base: blacks,

Markos Moulitsas admitted that it's starting to look like "Black Men Vs. White Women," a meme with certain historical connotations in American history that the Democratic Party doesn't need to revisit right now.

white arse.
I recall after SC people being so excited that Obama could win whte voters. Bah.
I knew then that his appeal was going to go no further than blacks, trippy young kids, and hard-core liberals. Hmm...seems I was right.
IMO, the absolute worst thing that happened to the democrats this primary season was that the white man left the race too early. Had he stayed in, they would have a clear front runner by now. And my guess is that it wouldn't be the new guy.
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Just a typical, small town, white girl...

I'm now stuck with a mental image of you that neither of us likes. Boo.
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CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.

white because unlike my European sistas, I don't wear a thong to the pool.
Nope, much too modest for that. I cover my hiney.
But at any rate, whomever dares to think that Obama is "transracial" can still kiss it!
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Just a typical, small town, white girl...

It will impress the latte set and allow a more harmonious exchange of views :>) (And Bill Clinton might pinch it - that would be one to tell the grandkids!)

He said Edwards must just be kicking himself by now for dropping out. Didn't even call him the Breck Girl.

As twitty, girly and out-of-touch as Edwards came off (to me, at least), Obama and Hillary make him look awfully good for the Dems. Imagine if the supers actually did consider the OC Doomsday Option and chose Edwards.

You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.

Don't forget that the Obama outspent Hillary like 5-1 in PA.

Way outspent her and he still stunk up the place.

That has got to be music to Republican ears, if the Obama spent that much, got that much media love, and still got whipped among the demographics that count, couldn't swing one group beyond his core of blacks and yuppie liberals--it's a thing of beauty.

Every super-delegate remaining who hasn't made a decision yet, why they're likely to go along with an unenforceable edict like this, who each one of them is likely to lean towards, and - of course - who precisely are the party bosses who will be trying to put this together. Those by name, too.

Can't? Then I suggest that you replace the words "I expect" with "I'm guessing." :)

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

"the total amount of enthusiasm for their party and their candidates has so far exceeded anything on the GOP side."

Op Chaos

"there are so many new voters who are registering as Democrat that it still adds up to a plus for Obama."

Op Chaos

"Obama is still favored to beat McCain in November by roughly 60-40."

Dont believe that for a second..

"Personally, I expect that right after the North Carolina primary, the party bosses are going to tell Hillary to pack it in. If not, they will call a meeting of the superdelegates right then in June and demand an immediate vote, which will sink Hillary right then. That's as far as they will let this go on."

I picture her ripping off her pantsuit to reveal para-military fatigues; then she puts on a black beret, raises an AK in the air and scream something in Russian as her personal Guard seals the perimeter.

"40 million American households with guns are generally happier
than those people in households that don't have guns."

Between 1968 and 2008 the only time GOP primary turnout exceeded Democrat primary turnout was in 1996 and 2000.

Fight On!

Obama is getting lots of kids registered. So did Howard Dean. Obama has lots of enthusiastic kids showing up at his rallys. So did Howard Dean.

Bottom line, the linoleum lizards don't show up to vote in November. Us old farts do.
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CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.

Shame they can't trade pageviews in for votes, huh?

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

voters. Explaining to them how Obama transcends politics, how its a new paradigm, how divisive they are by not supporting Obama. Tell a few beer drinking, hourly workers that in Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc. should work greatly...for McCain. I'm sure these "new" voting kids will get their marching orders and talking points from places like Kos and dutifully go forth and offend to the point of voting for McCain thousands of otherwise Democratic voters. FUN!

Think back to our primary. How many people made definitive statements like "I will never vote for McCain"? I'll bet 90% of those folks will end up voting for McCain.

Of course, the young and the poor are less likely to vote generally, but I don't buy into the current numbers by Democrat voters that they will vote for McCain or sit it out rather than vote for the "other" candidate

It's looking like Obama will kick butt in the big cities but do little elsewhere.

Bill Clinton will be campaigning for her.

The "ready on day 1" B.S. will look pretty stupid against John McCain, who's done been ready.

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Gone 2500 years, still not PC.

do you think she pulls this out?
I'm so torn here. Down ballot, I think she is better for us than whiny boy. But...according to RCP, she polls better than McCain in those "swing" states. States that we must hold in order to win.
Lastly, if we are going to go down, I'd rather have her than him. We know what to expect with her and I think the congressional blow back would squelch a lot of her plan.
But d*mn, with Obama, we just would never know. He causes otherwise sane and normally rational people to do some strange things. Scary!
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Just a typical, small town, white girl...

heck, watching Billy screw around Washington could be comical for our side.

Plus, can you imagine every single critique of BHO and his wife in the White House met with the race card?... I can imagine it, and it scares the crap out of me.

" Got to love the Lord for making things like that."
Morally Compromised

I am concerned about the racist card being thrown out every time anyone tells whiny boy no. Despite the rhetoric, I think he is terrible for race relations in America. Black separatists have no more business running our country in 2008 than white seperatists. And sadly, BHO is fitting the bill of a black separatist, or at least sympathizer, more and more each day. And his wife is a 100% card carrying one.
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Just a typical, small town, white girl...

are border line militant. Sooo much more is going to come out in the next couple months....

" Got to love the Lord for making things like that."
Morally Compromised

... but the 'change' card, too. A 51/49 Obama win ("despite all the attacks against his church and wife by the right wing attack machine") would be spun in the media as a landslide victory giving a clear mandate for anything he wants. And what he wants is exactly the problem.

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Gone 2500 years, still not PC.

At this point the only thing she owes them is REVENGE. Whats more she has already made public the enmity. If she did get into office it would be with a power base of centrist to right leaning Democrats and left leaning Republicans. All of whom would have no great loyalty to her.

Three things I think along this vein:

1) I AM starting to get scared she could pull it out, just when Obama is really showing what a glass jaw he has.
2) If she does pull it off, this fight has made her a much more impressive and difficult candidate IMO. Heck, even I haven't been able to help liking her briefly at some points (although I usually come back to my senses 2 seconds later).
3) As Joliphant said, if she were to win the nomination and then the election now, I think she would be far to the right of how she was originally campaigning. She owes the left nothing, and has no reason to have anything but disdain for them after their constant attempts to scuttle her. She certainly would be a disaster, but nowhere near as much of one as she would've been before, and not even in the same league as Obama.

I agree with you. Any "dirt" on Hillary won't stick because she's been "vetted" (according to MSM) and public will be tired of hearing about another Clinton story. Obama gaffes are fresh and new daily and will stick. Obama will poll well (out of hope and guilt) but will note vote as good. (voting out of reality)

Don't underestimate the ability for the MSM to turn on a dime once there is a nominee and start whacking at McCain.

Ask not what I can do for my country, ask what my country can do for me. Washington Elected Elite

Wisconsin: I don't really see this one shifting more than two or three points.

Nebraska: Caucus. He probably still would have been able to manipulate this one.

Missouri: This one would have flipped, but she wouldn't gotten more than one or two delegates from it.

Kansas: Again, caucus. Same bit re manipulation as Nebraska.

The real lesson here is that the Democratic primary process isn't set up to handle either a person willing to game the system, or somebody unwilling to quit. You would theoretically consider that to be a feature, not a bug: except that the Democrats are starting to freak out over the specter of possibly having a primary where they don't know the outcome ahead of time. :)

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

You are probably right here.

I think Missouri would have gone Hillary and I even think she might have squeaked it by 5%. That wouldn't have meant much delegate wise, but it would have for the popular vote.

Is the Wisconsin dem electorate really made up of activists and latte liberals? I would have guessed that the clinging to guns and God and the US of KKK A would have sunk Obama there and shifted the dynamic to Hillary. I have always though of Wisconsin as a bunch of union labor cheeseheads which should have favored Hillary. Who knew?

This is all mighty interesting to say the least.
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Just a typical, small town, white girl...

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

my head over that one given Bush almost squeaked out a win in the state in 2004.
Strange. Must be all the cheese.
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Just a typical, small town, white girl...

Even though it wasn't national with a term and all.

I voted for Obama. If you knew me personally you'd know how much of a 180 turn that is. A friend of mine (more conservative than me) voted Obama - and we did not talk/collaborate on it before we voted - found out after.

Obama is a weak-kneed, glass jawed, empty suit full of gas. He will deflate so fast in the General it will make history.

He needs to be the Dem nominee.

If there is one advantage of locking up your party's nomination early - it's the Operation Chaos affect that can happen to the other party.

The Cheese is good too - just bad for my Cholestorol :^)

Speak to me about Hillary's outcome in Missouri had Bitter-gate and Jeremiah's theatrics come to light before the primary.
I say she would have beat Obama by at least 5%. Am I out of touch with my former neighbor?

I ask out of curiousity. I know Bubba has GOT to be whispering some of this to undecided super-ds.
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Just a typical, small town, white girl...

It would have had an impact, but with the large urban population that drove Obama's turnout I'm not sure it would have made a big difference.

Ultimately, even if it had gone for Hillary we would have seen about a 4 delegate swing...not that big of a deal.

n/t

...to let everybody vote twice in Texas doesn't mean that we have to take it seriously. Your guy is good at fixing caucuses: which is fine, the ground rules allowed it. But he lost Texas by 100,000 votes.

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

at face value, what happened in Pennsylvania?

Perhaps there wasn't enough time to organize in such a large state, or maybe Senator Obama was low on funds?

Following your metaphor, perhaps he should learn to throw the ball.

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Gone 2500 years, still not PC.

The Obama voters do include the people you mention, but they also include people who never paid attention to politics before. They are young people, or groups that had historically low turnout. They're coming out to vote for Obama. These people aren't likely to switch to McCain if Hillary steals the nomination, but they ARE likely to stay home.

The Hillary voters are die hard Dems. They're the party machine and they're going to vote for whoever has a D after their name on the ballot. They'll turn out for the election because their precinct captain (or union steward) will send a bus to take them to the polls.

If Obama wins, the Dems will have both groups voting down the tick for D's. If Hillary wins, only the base of the party will turn out and we'll have a chance in the down ticket races too.

Socialism doesn't work. It looks nice on paper, but it's been tried and it's failed miserably every time (usually accompanied by widespread death and suffering).
Proud member of the V.R.W.C.