A Specter Is Haunting Tax Policy . . .
By Pejman Yousefzadeh Posted in Barack Obama | Economy | Gas Prices | Windfall Profits Tax — Comments (16) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Barack Obama has come out against the "gas tax holiday" that is being pushed by Senators McCain and Clinton. Obama's reasoning is defensible; he believes that a temporary lowering of gas prices will increase demand--especially now that we are heading into the peak summer driving period--thus eventually further reducing supply and causing the price to spike. At the end of the day, Obama argues that a gas tax holiday is hardly a short term solution to the problem of high gas prices, let alone a long term solution.
Let's grant that for a moment. What then to make of this?
Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama's proposal for a windfall profits tax on oil companies could cost $15 billion a year at last year's profit levels, a campaign adviser said.
The plan would target profit from the biggest oil companies by taxing each barrel of oil costing more than $80, according to a fact sheet on the proposal. The tax would help pay for a $1,000 tax cut for working families, an expansion of the earned- income tax credit and assistance for people who can't afford their energy bills.
``The profits right now are so remarkable that one could trim them 10 percent or so, which would turn out to be somewhere in the $15 billion range,'' said Jason Grumet, an adviser to the Obama campaign.
This plan is ridiculous. As I have pointed out before--in incorporating the arguments of others--oil companies don't make as large of a profit as people think and they must contend with an exceedingly volatile pricing structure. What's more; the tax will be self-defeating. Surely, Obama must know that oil companies will only try to find ways to pass the costs of a windfall profits tax on to the consumer. With their lower-than-thought profit margins, this almost becomes a necessity.
Obama has gotten a lot of praise regarding his stance on gas tax and the proposed gas tax holiday. But where is the recognition that his plan for a windfall profits tax will in fact make things a lot worse for people when they have to purchase gas?
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A Specter Is Haunting Tax Policy . . . 16 Comments (0 topical, 16 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
On the other hand if you wanted to shift taxes away from income and towards consumption such as a tax on fossil fuels then that might meet some of your goals towards promoting conservation and alternate energy. But, you had better make the tax cut more than offset the extra income, to allow for transition costs, and you should make it broad based enough so that it effects everyone, business and consumer.
My choice would be to cut payroll taxes and their matching component as well, and substitute a rise (but not revenue neutral, we need tax relief) in fuels such as a BTU tax.
"Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty"
Kyle
in these weighty economic matters, and must keep in mind my own naivete and shoddy thinking, it seems to me that any tax cut is a good tax cut.
It also seems unlikely that the oil companies would, or even could raise prices to obviate the tax holiday. The price at the pump is set by the owner of the pump. Most are owned by independent gasoline sellers, not Exxon or Hugo Chavez.
That fact is lost in the demagoguery engaged in most energetically by the Obama and Clinton campaigns. The people selling the gas have no control over the price of a barrel of oil, since they buy gasoline and diesel from a regional fuel depot, another step removed from the refinery. The price at which they can sell gasoline is further delimited by the competitor across the street, or at the next interchange.
Do they not price their product in such a way as to maximize total profit, and not simply profit per unit? If they were able to raise prices and still achieve sales sufficient to reach a profit maximum, they would do so already. Rather, I think, competitive pressures will do the same thing to prices after a tax cut that they do now, and keep them steady at a lower level. Companies which raise prices past the competition do not sell their product.
That a temporary lowering of prices would increase demand is both farcical and irrelevant. It is farcical because demand is only increased until price responds, and tends to increase supply when it does so. Senator Obama speaks as if supply were static.
More importantly, most driving is mandatory and will continue regardless of the price. That doesn't change during the summer. What we are talking about is the vacation driving season: packing up the kids and driving to Yosemite, Six Flags, or Fenway. A tax holiday on gasoline removes a psychological barrier to that activity, and allows the economy to benefit from a mobile customer base. That should more than make up for revenue losses from dropping the direct tax on fuel.
The reason we don't do away with the fuel tax altogether is because of the mandatory driving built in to the economy.
But the real reason for Obama's opposition to the tax holiday is that he opposes increased consumption of fossil fuels, period. Barack Obama doesn't want you to take that vacation, because it will hurt the planet.
--
Gone 2500 years, still not PC.
of backing up "farcical and irrelevant". I have to go garage saling with the little missus, or I would develop the argument properly. For now, I ask your grace in ignoring that charge, for I may have to back away from the language.
--
Gone 2500 years, still not PC.
I'm mindful of the comment to grant leeway on "farcical and irrelevant", but since I'm not sure how far you intend that to apply (nor, to be honest, am I sure how far I'm willing to let you use that to excuse shoddy reasoning ;-) ), I'm going to try to respond to the reasoning behind the comment.
That a temporary lowering of prices would increase demand is both farcical and irrelevant. It is farcical because demand is only increased until price responds, and tends to increase supply when it does so. Senator Obama speaks as if supply were static.
Regarding "demand is only increased until price responds", I don't see why price wouldn't respond. If price doesn't respond, then certainly you're going to have more demand -- but how will that demand be filled? This brings into question that it "tends to increase supply when it does so". It takes time for supply lines to be brought back into profitable operation and for distribution channels to absorb the extra product, and there simply isn't enough time to do that. In the short term, supply is fixed in any market (short term defined with respect to the particular market), which is the main sticking point with respect to the policy.
Obama is right on the gas holiday being bad policy. More than that, however, consider how many economists decry it as a bad idea as well -- I can't think of anyone who actually likes it. Not all tax cuts are created equal; a payroll tax reduction would be a far better way to achieve the goal of cutting taxes.
(To be honest, at the moment I don't see a good reason to make either cut; I think we need to rein in the deficit first and only then go about further cutting taxes. We definitely should at least hold the taxation status quo [that includes the Bush tax cuts], however, until we've erased the deficit, which we should do by scaling back expenditures.)
What we are talking about is the vacation driving season: packing up the kids and driving to Yosemite, Six Flags, or Fenway. A tax holiday on gasoline removes a psychological barrier to that activity, and allows the economy to benefit from a mobile customer base. That should more than make up for revenue losses from dropping the direct tax on fuel.
I offer no more figures than you do, but I don't believe extra economic activity the added mobility the tax would afford (again, assuming prices don't respond to increased demand, which I don't think would happen) would offset the cost of the tax.
[T]he real reason for Obama's opposition to the tax holiday is that he opposes increased consumption of fossil fuels, period.
On this topic I'll take him (and every other economist I've heard) at his word (well, that and standard microeconomic theory) that this is a bad idea because it rests on faulty economics.
I understand that Microsoft makes a pretty good profit - - also Google. Should be 'limit' their profits as well? Which other companies should be targeted?
It is not up to the government to limit anyone's ability to make money or tell them how much.
If Clinton and Obama think differently, why not limit individuals profits for individuals? We could start with George Soros and then take a look at how much money should be made on the stock market. Movie stars and sports stars do seem to make an inordinate amount of money for what they do; and I certainly think television actors are overpaid.
Maybe we should consider limiting the amount of money that our representatives in Congress should make. After all they do seem to make out like bandits after being Senators and Congressmen for years , and putting a limit on their ability to utilize their Washington connections might keep the corruption under control...sort of an extension in some ways of Campaign Finance reform.
The ideas from the candidates regarding the gas problem are not encouraging. I hate to tell Obama , but his don't represent 'change' but more of the same rhetoric we have heard from the left for years.
Neal Cavuto said it best the other day - - instead of choosing between alternative energy sources and actually drilling for our own oil - - do both at the same time. The Democrats are now arguing that drilling in Anwar will not provide oil for 10 years. They have been saying that for 15 years. We could have oil from Anwar right now if we had ignored the 'environmentalists' who are, I believe, largely responsible for this gas crisis. Now, thanks to them, we not only have a gas crisis, but a worldwide food shortage. Thanks guys - - what else do you have in mind.
are the story behind the gas crunch. You may want to read related article at. . . .
http://samuelatgilgal.wordpress.com/2008/05/01/tired-of-high-gas-prices/
Effectively he is talking about nationalization.
If he confiscates 90% of their profits what would be the reason for them to be in business? Why would they bother to produce any oil? They would be far better off to leave their assets in the ground and wait for a more favorable political environment.
Essentially he will be stealing from just about everyone who owns a 401K or a mutual fund.
But why would be surprised that this is Obama's solution? The guy is essentially a communist so it is perfectly reasonable that he would propose nationalization.
But he is probably right about the McCain/Hillary gas tax holiday. The market equilibrium price including the 18 cents is what it is. People are buying gas at that price. If you remove the tax, the price will stay the same and the oil companies will just put another 18 cents in their pocket.
If they really want to give people a break they should cut taxes elsewhere.

"I repudiate the idea of voting for a Democrat
Americans are justly suspicious about the manipulation of oil prices.
But politicians blame oil companies, because sticking it to oil companies is relatively easy--just pass laws and raise taxes.
Blaming the oil-exporting nations of OPEC, such as Venezuela and Saudi Arabia and Iran, is much harder--it could mean a rupture in diplomatic relations or even war. (Bush went to the Middle East last year, and practically begged Saudi Arabia on his knees to lower oil prices. They said no.)
Of the three candidates, only Hillary has said anything about organizing some intensive diplomatic effort to face down OPEC. She suggested suing them in front of the World Trade Organization. I don't know if that will work, but it's worth a try. Maybe all the nations that use oil should form a bloc of their own and bargain for lower oil prices.
By the way: If Bush had been smart, he would have told the Iraqis in 2002: "We'll liberate you from Saddam--but in return, you must agree to withdraw from the OPEC cartel and sell your oil at the global market price." That would have introduced some real competition to OPEC price quotas.
But he didn't do that, Iraq is still a member of OPEC, and they are screwing us over with high oil prices while we continue to shed our blood for them.
...Bush should have dealt with?
And whether or not Iraq is an OPEC member makes little difference. The UK, Norway, Mexico & Canada are not OPEC members, and they sell their oil at exactly the same price as OPEC. The point is, everyone sells at the world market price.
There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life. - Frank Zappa
Taxes on oil company profits are almost entirely borne by the oil companies because (1) the supply of oil is less elastic than demand (2) the tax is structured to only apply to profits that are above the market interest rates, so investment and production will not be affected (3) much of the profits of US oil companies are from their overseas sales, so even if this does cause prices to increase, the majority of the cost will be paid by other countries.
Pretty much every reputable economist supports higher energy taxes for these and other reasons, including Greg Mankiw, George W. Bush's former chief economic advisor, as well as Martin Feldstein, Ronald Reagan's former chief economic advisor. See:
http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2006/10/pigou-club-manifesto.html
But I supppose you know better than Feldstein and Mankiw.
Obama is right, McCain and Hillary are just trying to score cheap points. Fortunately it isn't working, with Obama now ahead of McCain in the pollster.com poll average after being down about 7 points in the middle of bitter/Wright mania.
...in the past two tracking polls, respectively. The RCP average gives Obama a miniscule 0.1 pt national lead. The state by state electoral matchups look even worse for Obama, as he trails in Ohio and in Florida (big). He barely has a lead in must-win Pennsylvania, too.
I really hope you libs continue to think the Rev Wright deal is not a big deal. I hope Obama does too - that issue ain't going away. Trust me ;)
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
"(2) the tax is structured to only apply to profits that are above the market interest rates, so investment and production will not be affected"
Profits above market rates? 10% ROI is too much? What is the market rate of profits? Do you mean treasury yields or something else?
And do you REALLY believe that limiting profits won't limit the new money investing in developing new oil fields or new ways of extracting more oil from existing fields? What incentive would an oil company have to RISK billions of $ in development when they could get the same return investing in risk free treasury bonds?
I have problems with your assertions 1 and 3 as well, but I think I'd like to get a coherent explanation of how your assertion #2 works before I go there....
Socialism doesn't work. It looks nice on paper, but it's been tried and it's failed miserably every time (usually accompanied by widespread death and suffering).
Proud member of the V.R.W.C.
Would a windfall profits tax make investing in domestic oil and gas more attractive, or less attractive, to the oil company?
Jimmy Carter's windfall tax chased them overseas, and that's just what this one will do, too.
There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life. - Frank Zappa
Of course the oil/gas companies are making a higher total of profits with gas at $3.50 instead of $2.50; however, the margin of profit is the same. $.08 or so per $1. The way to fix this is more supply & refining ablilty.
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The only trouble is that the majority of people Obama, Clinton and McCain talk to, take these proposals seriously. None of them have a "prayer's chance in hell" of ever knowing what you're talking about and that's because they are hopelessly blinded by the campaign rhetoric ad nauseum. This country's energy policy comes down to "Anything but asking us to disturb our environment to help ourselves." We've let this go on for 30 years, we'll let it go on for 30 more. In the meantime, we'll have to listen to the likes of these three morons talking about tax holidays, windfall profits taxes, and every other screwball idea under the sun. Why? Because it's simple and they won't have to deal with the complexity of making us energy independent.