Redstate

Some good news for a change. I think we can pretty much put FL13 in the bag. Others sound pretty good too.

"I will look for people in the cast of John Roberts, Samuel Alito, and my friend the late William Rehnquist – jurists of the highest caliber who know their own minds, and know the law, and know the difference." - John McCain

There is now a lot of speculation that Rep. Vito Fossella will resign, or at least not seek another term. The big question is timing. If he desides to resign before July 1, which he may do given his scandal's impact on his family and a desire for privacy, the Governor could, and probably would, call a special election. In such an election, Party leaders would choose the nominees, which would give Democrats the opportunity to replace their current Brooklyn candidates with an Island one, who would be much more competitive.

I expect that the GOP will nominate City Councilman James Oddo, who represents about a third of the distrcit right now. I know Oddo to be quite personable, but he disappointed me when he led the fight in favor of banning metal bats in youth baseball. (To be sure, I'm opposed to metal bats, but I don't think the City Council should be involved.)

Especially in the case of a special election, NYC Democrats would throw everything they have at the race, hoping to effectively destroy the last hold of the Republican Party in the City. McCain will be highly competitive in the district, but Obama's candidacy could drive turnout on the North Shore, giving the Democrat a fighting chance. On the same note, his candidacy could also help the Republican in Tottenville, which is on the South Shore of the island. I recall volunteering on a campaign and hearing another volunteer talk of his experience there. When the volunteer handed a voter a palmcard and asked him to vote for his candidate, the voter looked him straight in the eye and asked, "Is he white?"

I expect that Republicans will hold the seat, but Democrats have been making gains and it is by no means the lock it was before the arrest. What I can say with confidence is that I expect that the winner of the race will hold the seat for several terms, probably until he finds himself in a scandal or decides to take a job on K Street.

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Romney/Pace 2008

LA 6 Cazayoux (D)

Though Woody Jenkins, who lost the 6th Congressional District race to Don Cazayoux, is keeping open his options of running again in the fall, the new congressman might face another Republican challenger.
Laurinda Calongne, whom Jenkins beat in the GOP primary, says in a statement she is "very likely to run in November."
Also, Board of Elementary and Secondary Education member Chas Roemer, 38-year-old son of former Gov. Buddy Roemer, said he will decide about running in the next two weeks.

LA Open Seat McCrery (R)

State Sen. Lydia Jackson, D-Shreveport, said she is seriously considering a run, also as an independent, for the 4th District U.S. Congressional District seat being vacated by retiring U.S. Rep. James McCrery, R-Shreveport. Though still a democrat, Lydia Jackson said she has some problems with the way the party has been recruiting and supporting candidates.

Alaska Young (R)

Democrat Jake Metcalfe says he's dropping out of the race for the nomination for U.S. House from Alaska.

Metcalfe, the former chairman of the Democratic Party in Alaska, said Wednesday his decision was tied to fake Web sites that contained links to Democratic rival Ethan Berkowitz.

The disputed Web sites contained variations of Berkowitz's name but were not associated with the candidate's campaign. When users clicked on the Web sites, they were directed to pages that attempted to portray Berkowitz as a privileged California liberal or to gay cultural sites in San Francisco.

Metcalfe determined that the smear tactics used with the Web sites was connected to someone in his campaign. He said he called Berkowitz to apologize.

He said the controversy had become a distraction and he was unable to campaign.

Alaska Young (R)

An independent poll released by the Hays Research Group, which was conducted over the past two days, shows Young in a battle with Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell.

Parnell stunned Young by announcing his candidacy at the Republican state convention in March.

The poll asked 128 respondents who identified themselves as Republicans for whom they intended to vote.

Young received support from 45 percent of respondents in the poll and Parnell received 42 percent. Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux pulled just 2 percent.

Ten percent of respondents did not express a preference in the congressional race.