Why Today’s Polls are Exceptionally Bad for Obama
A glut of state polling was released this morning. On the face of it, things look good for the current occupant of the White House.
But underneath, these results have the Obama campaign terrified.
First, lets look at some obvious problems: Obama +4 in PA, and +3 in MI. None of these are good numbers, given that in both instances the lead has been cut dramatically in the last month. (Looking for a wave election? This is the kind of evidence you need to see.) But at the same time we have Obama +5 in OH. Clearly something is up with these numbers. Either PA and MI are wrong, or OH is wrong.
So which is it?
Let’s look at the Ohio internals. Obama up by 5 with a D+8 turnout. Hmm. It was D+5 in 2008. Is D+8 likely this time around? Probably not. Also, the same poll has Romney winning Independents by 6 points, which is about the same margin that Obama won Independents by in 2008. Yet we are supposed to believe he’ll do better this time overall with a 13 point swing in the Independent vote?
Here’s where it gets really bad for the Obama campaign.
The same polling company (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac) released a poll in Virginia too. Obama apparently leads by 2 points. Yet at the same time he is losing the Independent vote by 21 points! The split? D+8.
Why is this bad? Because Roanoke College also released a Virginia poll today with dramatically different results.
In their poll, Romney leads by 5 points. He also wins Independents by 26 points*. Now, 26 and 21 points are close enough to not have that much of a dramatic effect on the results.
(* To put this in perspective, if this were repeated across the nation, States like CA and MA would be in play…)
So what is the difference?
The split. In this case, D+4. The first poll has 4% points fewer Republicans than the second, and 5% points more Independents. In 2008, the Virginia turnout was D+6. In 204, it was R+4. (See here.)
So in a nutshell, if the economy was good, people were happy, the Republicans hadn’t destroyed the Democrats in the 2009, 2010, and 2011 Federal & State elections, Democrat turnout would be breaking all records and Obama would win re-election.
Meanwhile, back on Planet Earth (and not Narnia), the economy is in the crapper, people are not just unhappy, they are pissed, and oh, yes, the Republicans did destroy the Democrats in the 2009, 2010 and 2011 Federal & State elections, Democrat turnout will suffer, Republican (and Independent) turnout will increase, and Mitt Romney will be the 45th President of the United States.
Provided you all vote!